HOG
BEARISH
$22.97
Live
Harley-Davidson, Inc. · NYSE
Target $22.14
(-3.6%)
$17.09
52W Range
$31.25
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$2.57B
P/E
8.26
ROE
10.4%
Profit margin
7.6%
Debt/Equity
0.97
Dividend yield
3.17%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
HOG presents a classic value trap scenario, characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 but severely deteriorating fundamentals. While the stock appears cheap on a P/E (8.26) and Price/Book (0.82) basis, this is offset by a catastrophic revenue decline of -27.8% and a negative operating margin of -69.64%. The divergence between the Graham Number ($41.94) and the growth-based Intrinsic Value ($19.46) highlights that the company's asset value is not being translated into growth. With a technical trend of 0/100 and bearish insider activity, the outlook remains negative.
Key Strengths
Low P/E ratio (8.26) relative to sector average
Trading below book value (P/B 0.82)
Strong short-term liquidity with a Current Ratio of 2.10
Sustainable dividend payout ratio at 25.90%
Positive net profit margin (7.57%) despite operating losses
Key Risks
Severe revenue contraction (-27.8% YoY)
Extreme operating margin deficit (-69.64%)
Very high PEG ratio (5.23) indicating poor growth relative to valuation
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and negative 5-year price performance (-49%)
Consistent earnings misses in recent quarters (1/4 beats)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$19.85
-13.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
65
15
30
45
70
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Revenue collapse, Operating margin crisis, Bearish technicals, Low valuation multiples
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E 8.26, PEG 5.23, Graham Number $41.94
Positives
- P/E is significantly lower than sector average
- P/B < 1.0
Watchpoints
- High PEG ratio
- Intrinsic value is below current market price
Future
15/100
Ref Growth rates and Forward P/E
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth -27.8%
- Forward P/E (13.87) is higher than trailing P/E, suggesting expected earnings decline
Past
30/100
Ref Historical price and EPS trends
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- 5-year price change of -49%
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of -178.7%
Health
45/100
Ref Piotroski F-Score and Operating Margins
Positives
- Current Ratio 2.10
- Debt/Equity 0.97
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (Stable/Weak)
- Operating Margin -69.64%
Dividend
70/100
Ref Yield 3.17%, Payout 25.90%
Positives
- Low payout ratio (25.9%)
- Consistent yield (3.17%)
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score 35/100
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$22.97
Analyst Target
$22.14
Upside/Downside
-3.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HOG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-27
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Primary
|
-49.0% | -33.4% | +1.1% | -13.3% | +18.0% | -4.1% |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
Peer
|
+98.1% | +80.9% | +55.9% | -9.4% | -3.6% | -1.2% |
|
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc.
Peer
|
-1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -9.4% | -1.2% |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Peer
|
-39.2% | +7.4% | +73.1% | +20.4% | +8.6% | +0.9% |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
|
+15.2% | -25.8% | +3.8% | -0.6% | -10.2% | -1.2% |
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-49.0%
3Y
-33.4%
1Y
+1.1%
6M
-13.3%
1M
+18.0%
1W
-4.1%
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+98.1%
3Y
+80.9%
1Y
+55.9%
6M
-9.4%
1M
-3.6%
1W
-1.2%
AND
Andersen Group Inc.
Peer
5Y
-1.8%
3Y
-1.8%
1Y
-1.8%
6M
-1.8%
1M
-9.4%
1W
-1.2%
AMB
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Peer
5Y
-39.2%
3Y
+7.4%
1Y
+73.1%
6M
+20.4%
1M
+8.6%
1W
+0.9%
BRS
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
5Y
+15.2%
3Y
-25.8%
1Y
+3.8%
6M
-0.6%
1M
-10.2%
1W
-1.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
8.26
Forward P/E
13.87
PEG Ratio
5.23
P/B Ratio
0.82
P/S Ratio
0.57
EV/Revenue
0.97
EV/EBITDA
6.97
Market Cap
$2.57B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.57%
Operating Margin
-69.64%
Gross Margin
29.84%
ROE
10.42%
ROA
2.81%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-27.8%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-27.84%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.97
Moderate
Current Ratio
2.1
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.72
Excellent
Cash/Share
$11.76
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.5B
Gross Margin
-11.2%
Op. Margin
-72.8%
Net Margin
-56.3%
Total Assets
$8.0B
Liabilities
$4.9B
Equity
$3.1B
Debt/Equity
1.56x
Operating CF
$0.2B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
66%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-02-10
$-2.44
-121.0% surprise
2025-11-04
$3.1
+88.8% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.88
-5.4% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing HOG against 386 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(23 bullish, 133 neutral, 230 bearish)
P/E Ratio
8.26
This Stock
vs
33.98
Sector Avg
-75.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
10.42%
This Stock
vs
-43.92%
Sector Avg
-123.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.57%
This Stock
vs
-5.4%
Sector Avg
-240.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.97
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-36.1%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-27.8%
This Stock
vs
28.42%
Sector Avg
-197.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.1
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
-14.4%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.57B | 8.26 | 10.4% | 7.6% | $22.97 | |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.57B | 12.29 | 41.3% | 16.1% | $50.28 | Compare |
|
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.56B | - | -% | 6.9% | $23.07 | Compare |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
|
BEARISH | $2.64B | - | -% | 0.3% | $4.41 | Compare |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
|
BEARISH | $2.65B | 156.44 | 2.0% | 13.8% | $14.08 | Compare |
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$2.6B
P/E
8.3
ROE
10.4%
Price
$22.97
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | DO CHARLES | Officer | Sale | 4,241 | $76,741 |
| 2026-03-09 | STARRS ARTHUR FRANCIS III | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 15,000 | $286,500 |
| 2026-03-09 | FLEES LORI ANN | Director | Purchase | 4,000 | $75,546 |
| 2026-02-27 | MASOOD RAFEH | Director | Purchase | 2,775 | $49,950 |
| 2026-02-25 | FARLEY JAMES D JR | Director | Sale | 6,454 | $120,780 |
| 2026-02-17 | KRAUSE PAUL J | Officer | Stock Award | 3,757 | - |
| 2026-02-17 | ROOT JONATHAN R | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,800 | - |
| 2026-02-17 | TERMAAT TORI | Officer | Stock Award | 2,538 | - |
| 2026-02-17 | KOVAL GLEN | Officer | Stock Award | 2,287 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | KRAUSE PAUL J | Officer | Stock Award | 3,757 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | ROOT JONATHAN R | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,800 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | TERMAAT TORI | Officer | Stock Award | 2,538 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | KOVAL GLEN | Officer | Stock Award | 2,287 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | KRAUSE PAUL J | Officer | Stock Award | 8,635 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | ROOT JONATHAN R | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 14,334 | - |
DO CHARLES
Officer
2026-03-12
4,241 shares
·
$76,741
STARRS ARTHUR FRANCIS III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-09
15,000 shares
·
$286,500
FLEES LORI ANN
Director
2026-03-09
4,000 shares
·
$75,546
MASOOD RAFEH
Director
2026-02-27
2,775 shares
·
$49,950
FARLEY JAMES D JR
Director
2026-02-25
6,454 shares
·
$120,780
KRAUSE PAUL J
Officer
2026-02-17
3,757 shares
ROOT JONATHAN R
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-17
2,800 shares
TERMAAT TORI
Officer
2026-02-17
2,538 shares
KOVAL GLEN
Officer
2026-02-17
2,287 shares
KRAUSE PAUL J
Officer
2026-02-13
3,757 shares
ROOT JONATHAN R
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-13
2,800 shares
TERMAAT TORI
Officer
2026-02-13
2,538 shares
KOVAL GLEN
Officer
2026-02-13
2,287 shares
KRAUSE PAUL J
Officer
2026-02-09
8,635 shares
ROOT JONATHAN R
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-09
14,334 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
11 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-03-11
Underweight
UBS
2026-03-04
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2026-01-14
Neutral
Neutral
Loop Capital
2025-11-25
Hold
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-19
Underweight
Underweight
UBS
2025-11-13
Neutral
Neutral
DA Davidson
2025-11-10
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning HOG from our newsroom.
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