BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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BRSL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Gambling
Current Price
Live
$14.08
Analyst Target
$20.17
+43.2%
Upside
52W High
$18.57
52W Low
$13.8
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$2.65B
P/E
156.44
ROE
2.0%
Profit margin
13.8%
Debt/Equity
3.18
Dividend yield
6.27%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals critical weaknesses: a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9 indicates severe financial distress, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents safety confirmation. Despite high earnings growth and a bullish analyst recommendation, the stock trades at a massive premium to both Graham ($3.05) and intrinsic value ($2.65), with deteriorating earnings surprises, alarming leverage (Debt/Equity: 3.18), and a dangerously high payout ratio (888.89%). Technical trend is deeply bearish, and recent price performance shows consistent downward momentum, reinforcing structural concerns.
Key Strengths
Exceptional year-over-year earnings growth (1631.50%) suggests strong recent profitability rebound
High dividend yield of 6.27% may attract income-focused investors
Analyst consensus is 'buy' with a $20.17 target price, implying 43% upside
Operating and gross margins are robust at 29.09% and 44.47%, respectively
Revenue growth (7.20%) is in line with sector average (7.83%)
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals severe financial weakness and high risk of value deterioration
Debt/Equity ratio of 3.18 is more than double the sector average (1.63), indicating aggressive leverage
Payout ratio of 888.89% is unsustainable—dividends are being paid from capital, not earnings
Current and quick ratios below 1 (0.74 and 0.63) suggest liquidity risk
Technical trend score of 0/100 and 1-month price drop of -10.2% reflect strong bearish momentum
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$3.05
-78.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
28
Weak
18
54
30
15
22
AI Verdict
High-risk, structurally weak company trading on momentum and yield, not fundamentals
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, Unsustainable dividend, Extreme valuation premium, Poor earnings consistency, High leverage
Confidence
80%
Value
18/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 10.96 is below current P/E of 156.44, suggesting earnings recovery priced in
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 156.44 is extremely high
- Stock trades at 4.6x Graham Number ($3.05) and 5.3x intrinsic value ($2.65)
- PEG unavailable due to unreliable growth normalization
Future
54/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Exceptional YoY and QoQ earnings growth (1631.50%, 1571.40%)
- Analyst target implies strong future upside
Watchpoints
- Earnings surprises have been negative in 3 of last 4 quarters
- Average surprise over last 4 quarters: -20.95%, indicating deteriorating predictability
Past
30/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long-term revenue growth is stable
- Some history of beating estimates (e.g., +81% in 2021)
Watchpoints
- Earnings volatility is extreme, with multiple large negative surprises
- Price performance weak: -25.8% over 3Y, -10.2% over 1M
- P/E collapsed from high levels, suggesting earnings normalization risk
Health
15/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Profit margin (13.75%) and operating margin (29.09%) are strong
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates poor financial health
- Debt/Equity ratio of 3.18 is dangerously high
- Current and quick ratios below 1 signal liquidity stress
- Altman Z-Score unavailable, increasing uncertainty
Dividend
22/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- High dividend yield of 6.27% is attractive on surface
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 888.89% is unsustainable
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 indicates high risk of cut
- No 5-year yield average available—lack of dividend history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$14.08
Analyst Target
$20.17
Upside/Downside
+43.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BRSL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Primary
|
+15.2% | -25.8% | +3.8% | -0.6% | -10.2% | -1.2% |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Peer
|
-39.2% | +7.4% | +73.1% | +20.4% | +8.6% | +0.9% |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
Peer
|
+149.2% | +56.2% | +15.2% | +11.3% | -0.6% | -3.3% |
|
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc.
Peer
|
-1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -9.4% | -1.2% |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
|
-67.0% | -66.0% | +1.0% | -19.4% | +14.4% | +8.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
156.44
Forward P/E
10.96
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.07
P/S Ratio
1.06
EV/Revenue
2.35
EV/EBITDA
6.79
Market Cap
$2.65B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
13.75%
Operating Margin
29.09%
Gross Margin
44.47%
ROE
2.03%
ROA
4.27%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+7.2%
Earnings Growth
+1631.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+1571.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
3.18
High debt
Current Ratio
0.74
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.63
Poor
Cash/Share
$8.42
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-24
$N/A
2025-11-04
$0.36
+25.9% surprise
2025-07-29
$0.12
2025-05-13
$0.09
-67.9% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing BRSL against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
156.44
This Stock
vs
42.97
Sector Avg
+264.1%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
2.03%
This Stock
vs
6.02%
Sector Avg
-66.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
13.75%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+1663.7%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
3.18
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
+92.9%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
7.2%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
-5.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.74
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
-60.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
|
BEARISH | $2.65B | 156.44 | 2.0% | 13.8% | $14.08 | |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
|
BEARISH | $2.64B | - | -% | 0.3% | $4.41 | |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.61B | 12.9 | 41.3% | 16.1% | $50.97 | |
|
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.56B | - | -% | 6.9% | $23.07 | |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.81B | - | -23.9% | -4.4% | $46.77 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
6 analysts
Macquarie
2025-11-05
Outperform
Outperform
Truist Securities
2025-11-05
Hold
Hold
Stifel
2025-11-05
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2025-10-21
Hold
Hold
Stifel
2025-09-23
Buy
Buy
Argus Research
2025-08-20
Hold
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BRSL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.