AMBP
BEARISH
$4.41
Live
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. · NYSE
Target $4.45
(+0.9%)
$2.5
52W Range
$4.78
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$2.64B
P/E
N/A
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
0.3%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
9.07%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
65%
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9, indicating significant operational and profitability concerns. Despite strong recent earnings growth and a high dividend yield, the negative Price/Book ratio, extremely high payout ratio of 500%, and deteriorating quarterly EPS trend raise serious sustainability questions. Technical indicators are deeply bearish, and insider sentiment is weak, further undermining confidence. While valuation multiples appear low relative to peers, the lack of reliable balance sheet data and inconsistent earnings performance suggest substantial hidden risks.
Key Strengths
High dividend yield of 9.07% offers attractive income potential
Revenue growth of 8.80% YoY outpaces sector average of 7.45%
Recent earnings surprises have been strongly positive over the last four quarters (avg +86.18%)
Forward P/E of 18.11 is below sector average of 55.19, suggesting relative value
Operating margin of 6.16% exceeds sector average profit margin of 0.82%
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress and weak fundamentals
Dividend payout ratio of 500% is unsustainable and likely to be cut or eliminated
Price/Book ratio of -7.71 implies negative book value, signaling potential insolvency risk
Missing Altman Z-Score and key financials (Debt/Equity, ROE, Cash/Debt) obscure true financial health
Most recent Q/Q EPS growth declined by 50%, reversing prior gains
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$2.2
-50.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
36
Weak
58
45
30
20
25
AI Verdict
High-risk investment with unsustainable fundamentals and significant financial opacity
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, Unsustainable dividend payout, Negative book value, Missing key financial data, Deteriorating quarterly earnings trend
Confidence
70%
Value
58/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Low Price/Sales ratio of 0.49 indicates potential undervaluation
- Forward P/E below sector average
Watchpoints
- Negative Price/Book ratio invalidates traditional value metrics
- No Graham Number due to unprofitability or negative equity
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 8.80% YoY revenue growth above sector average
- 75% YoY earnings growth indicates recent improvement
Watchpoints
- Q/Q EPS growth down 50%, signaling reversal
- Earnings trajectory remains volatile and unpredictable
Past
30/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Recent quarters show strong earnings beat streak (3 of last 4)
Watchpoints
- History of large negative earnings surprises (e.g., -2113.9%)
- Multiple quarters with negative EPS and declining trends pre-2024
Health
20/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.09 shows minimal short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates critical financial weakness
- Quick ratio of 0.77 below 1.0 threshold, indicating liquidity risk
- No Altman Z-Score available, but negative equity likely implies distress
Dividend
25/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- High current yield of 9.07% attractive in income context
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 500% is fundamentally unsustainable
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 reflects high risk of cut
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$4.41
Analyst Target
$4.45
Upside/Downside
+0.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AMBP and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Primary
|
-39.2% | +7.4% | +73.1% | +20.4% | +8.6% | +0.9% |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
|
+15.2% | -25.8% | +3.8% | -0.6% | -10.2% | -1.2% |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
Peer
|
+98.1% | +80.9% | +55.9% | -9.4% | -3.6% | -1.2% |
|
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Peer
|
-49.0% | -33.4% | +1.1% | -13.3% | +18.0% | -4.1% |
|
HNI
HNI Corporation
Peer
|
+8.2% | +59.5% | -7.6% | -14.9% | +9.5% | -0.5% |
AMB
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Primary
5Y
-39.2%
3Y
+7.4%
1Y
+73.1%
6M
+20.4%
1M
+8.6%
1W
+0.9%
BRS
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
5Y
+15.2%
3Y
-25.8%
1Y
+3.8%
6M
-0.6%
1M
-10.2%
1W
-1.2%
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+98.1%
3Y
+80.9%
1Y
+55.9%
6M
-9.4%
1M
-3.6%
1W
-1.2%
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-49.0%
3Y
-33.4%
1Y
+1.1%
6M
-13.3%
1M
+18.0%
1W
-4.1%
HNI
HNI Corporation
Peer
5Y
+8.2%
3Y
+59.5%
1Y
-7.6%
6M
-14.9%
1M
+9.5%
1W
-0.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
18.11
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-7.71
P/S Ratio
0.49
EV/Revenue
1.2
EV/EBITDA
9.62
Market Cap
$2.64B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.3%
Operating Margin
6.16%
Gross Margin
12.06%
ROE
N/A
ROA
2.53%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+8.8%
Earnings Growth
+75.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+50.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
1.09
Good
Quick Ratio
0.77
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.53
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-10-23
$0.04
+50.8% surprise
2025-07-24
$0.08
+18.8% surprise
2025-04-24
$0.02
+189.0% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing AMBP against 386 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(23 bullish, 133 neutral, 230 bearish)
Profit Margin
0.3%
This Stock
vs
-5.4%
Sector Avg
-105.5%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
8.8%
This Stock
vs
28.42%
Sector Avg
-69.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.09
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
-55.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
|
BEARISH | $2.64B | - | -% | 0.3% | $4.41 | |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
|
BEARISH | $2.65B | 156.44 | 2.0% | 13.8% | $14.08 | Compare |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.57B | 12.29 | 41.3% | 16.1% | $50.28 | Compare |
|
HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.57B | 8.26 | 10.4% | 7.6% | $22.97 | Compare |
|
HNI
HNI Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $2.71B | 33.92 | 4.1% | 1.9% | $37.65 | Compare |
AMBP
Ardagh Metal...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$2.6B
P/E
-
ROE
-%
Price
$4.41
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
7 analysts
UBS
2026-01-12
Neutral
Neutral
Truist Securities
2026-01-06
Hold
Hold
UBS
2025-10-24
Neutral
Neutral
Raymond James
2025-10-16
Market Perform
Wells Fargo
2025-10-15
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
UBS
2025-10-06
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2025-07-29
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-07-28
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AMBP from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.