ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. - Fundamental Analysis
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ACGL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Financial Services
Insurance - Diversified
Current Price
Live
$98.38
Analyst Target
$108.89
+10.7%
Upside
52W High
$103.39
52W Low
$82.45
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 14, 2026
Market cap
$35.68B
P/E
8.61
ROE
19.5%
Profit margin
22.1%
Debt/Equity
0.11
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
ACGL's Piotroski F-Score of 4 indicates a borderline healthy financial profile, falling short of strong stability (7-9), while the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concerns about default risk assessment. The stock trades at a compelling 8.61x P/E, significantly below the sector average of 30.52, and its Graham Number of $129.68 suggests undervaluation, though the intrinsic value estimate of $337.19 implies a premium valuation based on growth expectations. Despite strong profitability (22.07% margin, 19.54% ROE) and robust earnings growth (38.70% YoY), recent insider selling and a bearish technical trend temper enthusiasm. The company's low debt-to-equity (0.11) and solid revenue growth (8.50% YoY) support resilience, but the lack of dividends and weak cash flow metrics limit income appeal.
Key Strengths
Strong profitability with 22.07% profit margin and 19.54% ROE
Low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 indicating conservative capital structure
Significant earnings growth of 38.70% YoY and 32.40% Q/Q
Attractive valuation with P/E of 8.61, well below sector average of 30.52
Consistent earnings beat history with 3 out of last 4 quarters exceeding estimates
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4 signals weak financial health, below the stable threshold of 4-6
Absence of Altman Z-Score prevents formal distress risk assessment
Bearish insider sentiment with $21.67M in sales over 6 months by senior executives
Extremely low liquidity ratios (Current Ratio: 0.53, Quick Ratio: 0.26) indicating potential short-term solvency concerns
No dividend and zero payout ratio, limiting income appeal despite strong earnings
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$129.68
+31.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
61
Strong
82
76
85
52
10
AI Verdict
neutral
Key drivers: Strong profitability and low leverage, Attractive valuation relative to sector, Bearish insider activity and weak liquidity, Low Piotroski F-Score and missing Altman Z-Score
Confidence
78%
Value
82/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 8.61 is significantly below sector average of 30.52
- Graham Number of $129.68 implies undervaluation
- Intrinsic value of $337.19 suggests growth premium, but current price is far below
Watchpoints
- Intrinsic value is substantially higher than current price, suggesting overvaluation if growth expectations are not met
- No PEG ratio available to validate growth-adjusted valuation
Future
76/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 38.70% YoY earnings growth and 8.50% revenue growth indicate strong momentum
- 32.40% Q/Q earnings growth shows acceleration
- Recent quarters consistently beat estimates with average surprise of 24.88%
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is -16.3%, indicating a potential reversal
- No forward guidance or PEG ratio to validate sustainability
Past
85/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 25 consecutive quarters of earnings data with 23 positive surprises
- Highest surprise of +114.2% in 2021, indicating strong execution capability
- Consistent beat rate of 3/4 in last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Historical volatility in earnings, including a loss in 2020 (Q2) and negative estimates in 2020 Q1
- One quarter (2022 Q1) with only +2.6% surprise, indicating inconsistency
Health
52/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.11 is extremely low, indicating strong balance sheet
- Low leverage reduces financial risk
- Consistent profitability across cycles
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4 is below the stable threshold (4-6), indicating weak financial health
- Current Ratio of 0.53 and Quick Ratio of 0.26 suggest liquidity strain
- No Altman Z-Score available, preventing formal distress risk assessment
Dividend
10/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- 0% payout ratio indicates no pressure on earnings for dividends
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout, limiting income appeal
- Zero dividend strength score (0/100) reflects no income generation
- No history of dividend payments
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$98.38
Analyst Target
$108.89
Upside/Downside
+10.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ACGL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Primary
|
+196.4% | +56.1% | +9.1% | +8.4% | +7.8% | -2.5% |
|
BBDO
Banco Bradesco S.A.
Peer
|
+15.8% | +72.0% | +93.0% | +43.2% | +18.3% | +14.4% |
|
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
Peer
|
+67.5% | +28.3% | -0.8% | +11.0% | -3.5% | -5.4% |
|
AIG
American International Group, Inc.
Peer
|
+104.8% | +22.4% | -1.0% | -8.7% | -16.4% | -0.8% |
|
BBD
Banco Bradesco S.A.
Peer
|
+19.4% | +73.1% | +112.8% | +41.2% | +17.6% | +11.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
8.61
Forward P/E
9.7
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.5
P/S Ratio
1.79
EV/Revenue
1.76
EV/EBITDA
6.34
Market Cap
$35.68B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
22.07%
Operating Margin
29.53%
Gross Margin
37.16%
ROE
19.54%
ROA
4.44%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+8.5%
Earnings Growth
+38.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+32.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.11
Low debt
Current Ratio
0.53
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.26
Poor
Cash/Share
$10.3
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-29
$N/A
2026-02-09
$2.98
+15.8% surprise
2025-10-27
$3.56
+46.6% surprise
2025-07-29
$2.58
+12.2% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing ACGL against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
P/E Ratio
8.61
This Stock
vs
30.38
Sector Avg
-71.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
19.54%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-358.0%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
22.07%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-73.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.11
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-92.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
8.5%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
-71.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.53
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
-86.1%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
|
NEUTRAL | $35.68B | 8.61 | 19.5% | 22.1% | $98.38 | |
|
BBDO
Banco Bradesco S.A.
|
BEARISH | $38.99B | 9.18 | 12.6% | 24.2% | $3.49 | |
|
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $39.31B | 15.3 | 8.5% | 4.5% | $111.69 | |
|
AIG
American International Group, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $40.07B | 13.01 | 7.7% | 12.0% | $72.32 | |
|
BBD
Banco Bradesco S.A.
|
NEUTRAL | $41.78B | 10.68 | 12.6% | 24.2% | $3.95 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | PASQUESI JOHN MURRAY | Chairman of the Board | Sale | 212,666 | $19,970,731 |
| 2025-12-12 | PASQUESI JOHN MURRAY | Chairman of the Board | Gift | 53,000 | - |
| 2025-12-10 | PETRILLO LOUIS T | Officer | Gift | 42 | - |
| 2025-11-28 | MORIN FRANCOIS | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 8,000 | $756,996 |
| 2025-10-30 | VOLLARO JOHN D | Director | Gift | 2,192 | - |
| 2025-08-22 | RAJEH MAAMOUN | President | Sale | 10,000 | $941,464 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
19 analysts
Citigroup
2026-02-13
Buy
Buy
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-02-13
Market Perform
Market Perform
Mizuho
2026-02-12
Neutral
Neutral
RBC Capital
2026-02-11
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2026-02-11
Overweight
Overweight
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-01-14
Neutral
Neutral
Barclays
2026-01-08
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Goldman Sachs
2026-01-08
Sell
Sell
Evercore ISI Group
2026-01-07
In-Line
In-Line
JP Morgan
2026-01-07
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ACGL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.