LGIH
BEARISH
$39.75
Live
LGI Homes, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $65.5
(+64.8%)
$33.55
52W Range
$69.5
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 13, 2026
Market cap
$919.54M
P/E
12.74
ROE
3.5%
Profit margin
4.3%
Debt/Equity
0.79
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
LGIH exhibits severe fundamental deterioration, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and a catastrophic YoY earnings decline of 65.10%. While the Graham Number ($79.76) suggests a deep value play based on assets, the growth-based intrinsic value ($21.84) and a 0/100 technical trend indicate the market is pricing in a structural decline. The disconnect between the low P/B ratio (0.44) and the collapsing profitability suggests a value trap. Bearish insider activity from the CEO, CFO, and President further reinforces a negative outlook.
Key Strengths
Very low Price-to-Book ratio (0.44) suggesting significant asset backing
P/E ratio (12.74) is significantly lower than the sector average (37.43)
Extremely high Current Ratio (51.00) indicating short-term liquidity
Positive gross margins (20.93%) despite bottom-line pressure
Analyst target price ($65.50) remains significantly above current market price
Key Risks
Severe earnings contraction with YoY growth at -65.10%
Negative revenue growth (-15.00% YoY and -14.97% Q/Q)
Weak financial health as evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9
Strong bearish insider sentiment with C-suite executives selling shares
Persistent long-term price decline (5Y change of -75.3%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$30.8
-22.5% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
22
Weak
65
10
15
20
0
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Collapsing earnings growth, Weak Piotroski health score, Bearish insider activity, Negative technical trend
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100
Trades at a massive discount to book value and Graham's defensive value, but growth-based metrics suggest it is overvalued.
Positives
- P/B of 0.44
- P/S of 0.54
- Graham Number $79.76
Watchpoints
- Intrinsic value $21.84 is well below current price
Future
10/100
Severe contraction in both top and bottom line growth rates.
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth -15%
- Earnings growth -65.10%
- Negative Q/Q momentum
Past
15/100
Long-term price performance is overwhelmingly negative.
Positives
- Historical ability to beat estimates in previous years
Watchpoints
- 5Y return of -75.3%
- 1Y return of -29.9%
Health
20/100
Piotroski score indicates weak financial health and deteriorating operational efficiency.
Positives
- High current ratio
- Manageable Debt/Equity (0.79)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
- Low ROE (3.51%)
Dividend
0/100
Non-dividend paying stock.
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend paid
- 0/100 strength score
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$39.75
Analyst Target
$65.5
Upside/Downside
+64.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for LGIH and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-10
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LGIH
LGI Homes, Inc.
Primary
|
-75.3% | -64.8% | -29.9% | -11.2% | -3.8% | +4.2% |
|
ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
Peer
|
+13.1% | +27.0% | -0.2% | -11.4% | -1.7% | -2.2% |
|
HDL
Super Hi International Holding Ltd.
Peer
|
-33.6% | -33.6% | -27.3% | -17.2% | -10.1% | +3.9% |
|
HEPS
D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S.
Peer
|
-79.8% | +135.7% | +4.2% | +7.5% | -4.2% | +0.4% |
LGI
LGI Homes, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-75.3%
3Y
-64.8%
1Y
-29.9%
6M
-11.2%
1M
-3.8%
1W
+4.2%
ACE
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+13.1%
3Y
+27.0%
1Y
-0.2%
6M
-11.4%
1M
-1.7%
1W
-2.2%
HDL
Super Hi International Holding Ltd.
Peer
5Y
-33.6%
3Y
-33.6%
1Y
-27.3%
6M
-17.2%
1M
-10.1%
1W
+3.9%
HEP
D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S.
Peer
5Y
-79.8%
3Y
+135.7%
1Y
+4.2%
6M
+7.5%
1M
-4.2%
1W
+0.4%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
12.74
Forward P/E
12.7
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.44
P/S Ratio
0.54
EV/Revenue
1.48
EV/EBITDA
28.78
Market Cap
$919.54M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
4.25%
Operating Margin
4.04%
Gross Margin
20.93%
ROE
3.51%
ROA
1.35%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-15.0%
Earnings Growth
-65.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-14.97%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-66.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.79
Moderate
Current Ratio
51.0
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.32
Good
Cash/Share
$2.65
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.5B
Gross Margin
17.7%
Op. Margin
3.9%
Net Margin
3.7%
Total Assets
$3.9B
Liabilities
$1.8B
Equity
$2.1B
Debt/Equity
0.87x
Operating CF
$0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
100%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-28
$N/A
2026-02-17
$0.97
+6.2% surprise
2025-11-04
$0.85
-8.8% surprise
2025-08-05
$1.36
+3.8% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing LGIH against 187 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(12 bullish, 69 neutral, 106 bearish)
P/E Ratio
12.74
This Stock
vs
36.65
Sector Avg
-65.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.51%
This Stock
vs
-8.24%
Sector Avg
-142.6%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
4.25%
This Stock
vs
-3.91%
Sector Avg
-208.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.79
This Stock
vs
1.36
Sector Avg
-41.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-15.0%
This Stock
vs
5.66%
Sector Avg
-365.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
51.0
This Stock
vs
2.5
Sector Avg
+1942.6%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LGIH
LGI Homes, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $919.54M | 12.74 | 3.5% | 4.3% | $39.75 | |
|
ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $951.68M | 23.04 | 18.2% | 3.3% | $11.29 | Compare |
|
HDL
Super Hi International Holding Ltd.
|
NEUTRAL | $870.78M | 14.8 | 9.6% | 4.3% | $14.8 | Compare |
|
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $974.13M | 32.38 | 8.4% | 2.2% | $44.03 | Compare |
|
HEPS
D-Market Elektronik...
|
BEARISH | $980.59M | - | -213.7% | -6.7% | $2.71 | Compare |
LGIH
LGI Homes, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$920M
P/E
12.7
ROE
3.5%
Price
$39.75
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | MERDIAN CHARLES MICHAEL | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 7,211 | $303,134 |
| 2026-03-09 | LIPAR ERIC THOMAS | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 39,898 | $1,675,684 |
| 2026-03-09 | SNIDER MICHAEL LARRY | President | Sale | 13,887 | $583,778 |
| 2026-03-09 | GARBER SCOTT JAMES | General Counsel | Sale | 1,353 | $56,877 |
| 2026-03-06 | MERDIAN CHARLES MICHAEL | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 11,218 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | LIPAR ERIC THOMAS | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 35,622 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | SNIDER MICHAEL LARRY | President | Stock Award | 12,128 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | VAHRADIAN ROBERT KARNIG | Director | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | GARBER SCOTT JAMES | General Counsel | Stock Award | 4,545 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | MERDIAN CHARLES MICHAEL | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 223 | $10,911 |
| 2025-12-31 | GARBER SCOTT JAMES | General Counsel | Stock Award | 386 | $17,697 |
| 2025-12-15 | SHARPE MARIA RENNA | Director | Stock Award | 3,214 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | SANSBURY BRYAN CHRISTOPHER | Director | Stock Award | 3,214 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | VAHRADIAN ROBERT KARNIG | Director | Stock Award | 3,214 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | SMITH STEVEN RANDAL | Director | Stock Award | 3,214 | - |
MERDIAN CHARLES MICHAEL
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-09
7,211 shares
·
$303,134
LIPAR ERIC THOMAS
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-09
39,898 shares
·
$1,675,684
SNIDER MICHAEL LARRY
President
2026-03-09
13,887 shares
·
$583,778
GARBER SCOTT JAMES
General Counsel
2026-03-09
1,353 shares
·
$56,877
MERDIAN CHARLES MICHAEL
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-06
11,218 shares
LIPAR ERIC THOMAS
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-06
35,622 shares
SNIDER MICHAEL LARRY
President
2026-03-06
12,128 shares
VAHRADIAN ROBERT KARNIG
Director
2026-03-06
1,000 shares
GARBER SCOTT JAMES
General Counsel
2026-03-06
4,545 shares
MERDIAN CHARLES MICHAEL
Chief Financial Officer
2025-12-31
223 shares
·
$10,911
GARBER SCOTT JAMES
General Counsel
2025-12-31
386 shares
·
$17,697
SHARPE MARIA RENNA
Director
2025-12-15
3,214 shares
SANSBURY BRYAN CHRISTOPHER
Director
2025-12-15
3,214 shares
VAHRADIAN ROBERT KARNIG
Director
2025-12-15
3,214 shares
SMITH STEVEN RANDAL
Director
2025-12-15
3,214 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
2 analysts
Citizens
2026-01-07
Market Outperform
Market Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning LGIH from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.