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OTLY

BEARISH
$12.92 Live
Oatly Group AB · NASDAQ
Target $19.08 (+47.7%)
$8.4 52W Range $18.84

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 16, 2026
Market cap
$403.43M
P/E
N/A
ROE
-243.4%
Profit margin
-17.7%
Debt/Equity
28.48
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
95%
OTLY exhibits critical financial instability, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and a catastrophic ROE of -243.44%. The company is facing a severe liquidity crisis with a current ratio of 0.48 and an extreme Debt/Equity ratio of 28.48, signaling high insolvency risk. While revenue shows modest growth (9.10%) and the Price/Sales ratio is low (0.47), these are overshadowed by chronic unprofitability and a 96.8% loss in value over five years. The deterministic health markers suggest a company in distress despite recent short-term price volatility.

Key Strengths

Positive revenue growth of 9.10% YoY
Low Price-to-Sales ratio (0.47) suggesting low valuation relative to top-line
Positive Gross Margin (32.12%) indicating viable product pricing
Recent short-term price momentum (+21.4% in 1 month)
Analyst target price ($19.08) remains significantly above current market price

Key Risks

Severe liquidity risk with a Current Ratio of 0.48 (below 1.0)
Extreme leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 28.48
Chronic net losses with a Profit Margin of -17.71%
Massive equity erosion reflected in an ROE of -243.44%
Extremely high Price-to-Book ratio (21.75) despite poor fundamentals

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
18
Weak
Value
30
Future
40
Past
10
Health
10
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
High Risk / Distressed
Key drivers: Critical liquidity shortage, Unsustainable debt levels, Persistent negative earnings
Confidence
90%
Value
30/100

Trades at a massive premium to book value despite negative earnings.

Positives
  • Low P/S ratio
Watchpoints
  • P/B ratio of 21.75 is excessive
  • No positive P/E or Graham Number available
Future
40/100

Growth is present but insufficient to offset the burn rate.

Positives
  • Consistent modest revenue growth
Watchpoints
  • Negative forward P/E
  • High volatility in earnings surprises
Past
10/100

Historical performance shows near-total destruction of shareholder capital.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • 5-year price change of -96.8%
  • Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates
Health
10/100

Financial health is in the 'Weak' category with high bankruptcy risk markers.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
  • Current Ratio 0.48
  • Debt/Equity 28.48
Dividend
0/100

Company is in a capital-preservation/survival phase.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend history
  • 0/100 strength score

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$12.92
Analyst Target
$19.08
Upside/Downside
+47.7%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for OTLY and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-15
OTL
Oatly Group AB
Primary
5Y
-96.8%
3Y
-71.5%
1Y
+49.4%
6M
-3.6%
1M
+21.4%
1W
+15.6%
MGP
MGP Ingredients, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-68.9%
3Y
-79.4%
1Y
-27.4%
6M
-18.3%
1M
+8.1%
1W
+0.8%
HEL
Helen of Troy Limited
Peer
5Y
-92.3%
3Y
-81.5%
1Y
-52.5%
6M
-18.8%
1M
+2.1%
1W
+14.6%
LWA
Lifeway Foods, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+343.6%
3Y
+305.3%
1Y
+3.4%
6M
-7.7%
1M
+16.7%
1W
+7.2%
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-79.7%
3Y
-56.7%
1Y
-21.4%
6M
+6.6%
1M
+1.4%
1W
+0.5%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
-6.35
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
21.75
P/S Ratio
0.47
EV/Revenue
9.93
EV/EBITDA
-328.03
Market Cap
$403.43M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin -17.71%
Operating Margin -4.33%
Gross Margin 32.12%
ROE -243.44%
ROA -4.78%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +9.1%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth +9.08%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
28.48
High debt
Current Ratio
0.48
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.33
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.1

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.2B
Gross Margin
34.5%
Op. Margin
-3.1%
Net Margin
-8.2%
Total Assets
$0.8B
Liabilities
$0.8B
Equity
$0.0B
Debt/Equity
41.36x
Operating CF
$-0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
123%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-29
$N/A
2026-02-11
$-0.02
+94.3% surprise
2025-10-29
$-2.0
-308.6% surprise
2025-07-23
$-1.77
-185.1% surprise

Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison

Comparing OTLY against 108 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector (6 bullish, 44 neutral, 58 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-243.44%
This Stock
vs
-21.08%
Sector Avg
+1055.1% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
-17.71%
This Stock
vs
-6.85%
Sector Avg
+158.5% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
28.48
This Stock
vs
1.53
Sector Avg
+1757.0% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
9.1%
This Stock
vs
172.71%
Sector Avg
-94.7% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.48
This Stock
vs
2.32
Sector Avg
-79.5% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
NONE
6 analysts
Barclays
2026-04-14
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Mizuho
2025-11-26
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
DA Davidson
2025-11-21
Maintains
Buy Buy
Barclays
2025-10-31
Maintains
Overweight Overweight

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning OTLY from our newsroom.

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