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REFI

BEARISH
$12.11 Live
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $16.0 (+32.1%)
$10.74 52W Range $15.2
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 18, 2026
Market cap
$255.28M
P/E
7.21
ROE
11.7%
Profit margin
65.9%
Debt/Equity
0.32
Dividend yield
15.52%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
REFI exhibits significant financial fragility, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and a bearish technical trend of 0/100. While the stock appears cheap on a P/E (7.21) and Price/Book (0.83) basis, it is a classic value trap characterized by an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 111.90%. Consistent earnings misses over the last four quarters and negative YoY earnings growth suggest that the current valuation is a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals rather than an opportunity.

Key Strengths

Low P/E ratio of 7.21 relative to sector averages
Trading below book value (P/B 0.83)
Strong profit margins (65.88%)
Conservative Debt/Equity ratio of 0.32
Extremely high liquidity as indicated by the Current Ratio (25.91)

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (111.90%) indicating a high risk of a dividend cut
Weak Piotroski F-Score (3/9) signaling deteriorating financial health
Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (0/4 beats in last 4 quarters)
Negative year-over-year earnings growth (-3.30%)
Strongly bearish technical trend (0/100)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$11.5
-5.0% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
35
Weak
Value
75
Future
30
Past
20
Health
30
Dividend
20
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Unsustainable dividend, Poor earnings track record, Weak Piotroski score
Confidence
90%
Value
75/100

P/E 7.21, Graham Number $23.49

Positives
  • Low P/E
  • P/B < 1.0
  • Below Graham Number
Watchpoints
  • Intrinsic value is near current price
Future
30/100

Earnings Growth -3.30%

Positives
  • Slight Q/Q revenue growth
Watchpoints
  • Negative YoY earnings growth
  • Stagnant revenue growth
Past
20/100

Quarterly Earnings Track Record

Positives
  • Historical 5Y positive change
Watchpoints
  • 0/4 recent earnings beats
  • Average surprise -9.02%
Health
30/100

Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Low Debt/Equity
  • High Current Ratio
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Dividend
20/100

Payout Ratio 111.90%

Positives
  • Very high yield (15.52%)
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio > 100%
  • Dividend strength score 40/100

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$12.11
Analyst Target
$16.0
Upside/Downside
+32.1%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for REFI and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-17
REF
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+31.9%
3Y
+32.8%
1Y
+1.0%
6M
-0.9%
1M
+1.9%
1W
+5.2%
BRT
BRT Apartments Corp.
Peer
5Y
-0.8%
3Y
-12.6%
1Y
-18.8%
6M
-13.9%
1M
-8.0%
1W
-4.3%
ACR
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
Peer
5Y
-23.3%
3Y
-38.4%
1Y
-3.1%
6M
+10.8%
1M
-1.7%
1W
-5.1%
ARL
American Realty Investors, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+76.1%
3Y
-28.3%
1Y
+6.2%
6M
+29.1%
1M
+4.3%
1W
+2.6%
AOM
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-15.4%
3Y
+78.5%
1Y
+3.5%
6M
+1.3%
1M
+4.8%
1W
-1.5%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
7.21
Forward P/E
6.31
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.83
P/S Ratio
4.67
EV/Revenue
6.2
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$255.28M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 65.88%
Operating Margin 57.7%
Gross Margin 100.0%
ROE 11.68%
ROA 8.37%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +2.7%
Earnings Growth -3.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +2.41%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +3.0%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.32
Low debt
Current Ratio
25.91
Strong
Quick Ratio
25.91
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.71

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.0B
Net Margin
57.3%
Total Assets
$0.4B
Liabilities
$0.1B
Equity
$0.3B
Debt/Equity
0.38x
Operating CF
$0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-03-12
$0.38
-5.6% surprise
2025-11-04
$0.42
-8.7% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.41
-12.8% surprise

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Comparing REFI against 96 companies in the Real Estate sector (4 bullish, 15 neutral, 77 bearish)
P/E Ratio
7.21
This Stock
vs
43.23
Sector Avg
-83.3% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
11.68%
This Stock
vs
-59.26%
Sector Avg
-119.7% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
65.88%
This Stock
vs
9.38%
Sector Avg
+602.1% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.32
This Stock
vs
2.48
Sector Avg
-87.1% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.7%
This Stock
vs
28456.08%
Sector Avg
-100.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
25.91
This Stock
vs
6.48
Sector Avg
+300.0% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

REFI Chicago Atlantic...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$255M
P/E
7.2
ROE
11.7%
Price
$12.11
BRT BRT Apartments Corp.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$262M
P/E
-
ROE
-6.2%
Price
$13.8
 Compare with REFI
ACRE Ares...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$267M
P/E
-
ROE
-1.4%
Price
$4.85
 Compare with REFI
ARL American...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$269M
P/E
47.6
ROE
0.9%
Price
$16.66
 Compare with REFI
AOMR Angel Oak...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$227M
P/E
11.8
ROE
6.7%
Price
$9.11
 Compare with REFI

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

10-K
10-K
2026-03-12

REFI filed its annual 10-K report on March 12, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial metrics or detailed risk disclosures for analysis.

8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2026-03-12
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2025-11-04
10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-04

REFI submitted its 10-Q filing on November 4, 2025. While the document includes a section for Risk Factors under Item 1A, no specific financial highlights or detailed risk disclosures were provided in the available excerpt.

8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2025-08-07

REFI filed a current report on August 7, 2025, likely announcing its second-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-07

REFI submitted its 10-Q filing on August 7, 2025. While the document includes a section for Risk Factors under Item 1A, the provided excerpt contains no specific financial highlights or detailed risk disclosures.

8-K
8-K
2025-06-23
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2025-05-07

REFI filed a current report on May 7, 2025, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-07

REFI filed its 10-Q on May 7, 2025. The provided excerpt identifies the presence of Risk Factors under Item 1A, although specific financial highlights and detailed risk disclosures were not included in the available text.

DEF 14A
PROXY STATEMENT
2025-04-28

REFI filed a definitive proxy statement on April 28, 2025, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on corporate matters.

8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2025-03-18
10-K
10-K
2025-03-12
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2025-03-12
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2024-12-30
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
2024-12-16
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning REFI from our newsroom.

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