AEG Aegon Ltd. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AEG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Insurance - Diversified
Current Price
Live
$7.71
Analyst Target
$8.13
+5.5%
Upside
52W High
$8.15
52W Low
$5.42
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$11.74B
P/E
8.47
ROE
15.0%
Profit margin
10.1%
Debt/Equity
0.45
Dividend yield
5.76%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
75%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, indicating stable but not strong financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Despite a seemingly attractive valuation with a P/E of 8.47 well below sector average and a current price below the Graham Number of $11.87, earnings volatility is extreme—recent YoY EPS growth is -3075% and Q/Q EPS growth is -1170%, signaling severe deterioration. Dividend strength is solid at 70/100 with a 5.76% yield and sustainable 44.48% payout ratio, but insider sentiment is weak at 40/100 and technical trend is deeply bearish at 10/100. Combined with erratic earnings surprises averaging -745.99% over the last four quarters, the stock appears fundamentally deteriorating despite surface-level value appeal.
Key Strengths
Attractive valuation with P/E of 8.47 significantly below sector average of 22.41
Dividend yield of 5.76% is high and supported by a reasonable 44.48% payout ratio
Debt/Equity ratio of 0.45 indicates conservative leverage relative to sector average of 1.72
Price/Sales of 0.90 suggests the stock trades below revenue value
ROE of 14.95% exceeds sector average despite negative peer mean
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates borderline financial stability with risk of deterioration
Extreme earnings volatility: YoY EPS growth of -3075% and Q/Q EPS growth of -1170%
Earnings misses in 3 of last 4 quarters with average surprise of -745.99%
Technical trend score of 10/100 signals strong bearish momentum
Insider sentiment is weak at 40/100, suggesting lack of confidence from insiders
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$9.5
+23.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
58
Moderate
75
20
55
58
80
AI Verdict
Financially stable but burdened by extreme earnings volatility and weak technicals
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score limits health confidence, Severe negative EPS growth undermines future outlook, High dividend yield supports income appeal, Deeply bearish technical trend, Valuation appears cheap but not confirmed by growth or earnings quality
Confidence
78%
Value
75/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 8.47 is well below sector average of 22.41
- Price/Sales of 0.90 indicates revenue-based undervaluation
- Current price of $7.71 below Graham Number of $11.87
Watchpoints
- Forward P/E of 26.59 suggests high expected earnings growth not supported by recent trends
- PEG Ratio unavailable due to unreliable growth inputs
Future
20/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- YoY EPS growth of -3075%
- Q/Q EPS growth of -1170%
- Forward P/E of 26.59 implies unsustainable rebound expectations
- Only 1 of last 4 quarters beat estimates
Past
55/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically mixed but occasionally strong earnings beats (e.g., +93.8% in 2009)
- Long-term 5Y return of +139% outperforms peers
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings history shows deep deterioration
- Multiple large negative surprises in last 2 years
Health
58/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates stable financial condition
- Debt/Equity of 0.45 is low
- Current Ratio of 89.41 and Quick Ratio of 15.92 suggest strong liquidity
Watchpoints
- Altman Z-Score not available, limiting distress risk assessment
- ROA of only 0.23% indicates poor asset efficiency
Dividend
80/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 5.76% is high and attractive
- Payout ratio of 44.48% is sustainable
- Dividend Strength score of 70/100
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$7.71
Analyst Target
$8.13
Upside/Downside
+5.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AEG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AEG
Aegon Ltd.
Primary
|
+139.0% | +64.7% | +22.4% | +6.0% | +0.4% | +0.8% |
|
AIZ
Assurant, Inc.
Peer
|
+91.8% | +90.7% | +14.3% | +26.2% | -3.5% | -0.3% |
|
ACGLO
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Peer
|
+10.5% | +14.5% | +4.6% | +1.7% | +1.2% | +1.3% |
|
ALLY
Ally Financial Inc.
Peer
|
+22.5% | +45.9% | +5.9% | +8.3% | -11.2% | -5.7% |
|
AFG
American Financial Group, Inc.
Peer
|
+147.1% | +12.2% | +0.9% | +4.0% | -6.8% | -2.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
8.47
Forward P/E
26.59
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.12
P/S Ratio
0.9
EV/Revenue
1.02
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$11.74B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
10.13%
Operating Margin
10.91%
Gross Margin
46.33%
ROE
14.95%
ROA
0.23%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+3.5%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.45
Low debt
Current Ratio
89.41
Strong
Quick Ratio
15.92
Excellent
Cash/Share
$2.02
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-19
$N/A
2023-02-09
$-1.27
-2217.3% surprise
2022-11-09
$-0.1
+65.0% surprise
2022-08-11
$-0.2
-85.7% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AEG against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(6 bullish, 111 neutral, 91 bearish)
P/E Ratio
8.47
This Stock
vs
30.39
Sector Avg
-72.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
14.95%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-297.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
10.13%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-87.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.45
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-69.9%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
3.5%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
-88.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
89.41
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
+2264.4%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AEG
Aegon Ltd.
|
BEARISH | $11.74B | 8.47 | 15.0% | 10.1% | $7.71 | |
|
AIZ
Assurant, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $11.78B | 14.47 | 15.4% | 6.8% | $233.39 | |
|
ACGLO
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
|
NEUTRAL | $12.4B | 4.53 | 19.5% | 22.1% | $21.27 | |
|
ALLY
Ally Financial Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $12.68B | 17.72 | 5.8% | 11.6% | $41.11 | |
|
AFG
American Financial Group, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $10.66B | 13.48 | 16.9% | 10.0% | $127.79 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
2 analysts
UBS
2025-12-03
Buy
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AEG from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.