AFG American Financial Group, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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AFG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Current Price
Live
$127.79
Analyst Target
$143.83
+12.6%
Upside
52W High
$150.02
52W Low
$114.73
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$10.66B
P/E
13.48
ROE
16.9%
Profit margin
10.0%
Debt/Equity
0.43
Dividend yield
2.74%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
AFG's Advanced Deterministic Scorecard shows a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating stable but not strong financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. The stock trades below its growth-based intrinsic value of $279.66 but above the conservative Graham Number of $109.99, suggesting moderate undervaluation with structural risks. Profitability metrics like ROE (16.91%) and low Debt/Equity (0.43) are strong, but weak revenue growth (-0.80% YoY) and bearish insider activity weigh on momentum. Analysts recommend a 'buy' with a target price of $143.83, implying 12.5% upside, though recent price performance has been flat to negative in the short term.
Key Strengths
Strong return on equity (ROE) of 16.91%, above sector average and indicating efficient capital use
Low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, well below sector average of 1.70, signaling conservative leverage
Attractive dividend yield of 2.74% with a sustainable payout ratio of 33.58%
Earnings growth remains robust at 19.50% YoY and 25.7% Q/Q, decoupled from stagnant revenue
Valuation appears favorable relative to intrinsic value ($279.66) despite premium to Graham Number
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates only stable financial health, with room for deterioration
Revenue declining YoY (-0.80%), raising concerns about top-line sustainability despite earnings growth
Missing Altman Z-Score prevents clear assessment of bankruptcy risk; absence is a red flag
Bearish insider sentiment with $1.72M in net sales by insiders over the last 6 months
Technical trend score of 0/100 indicates strong bearish momentum in price action
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$143.83
+12.6% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
65
Strong
72
68
58
55
70
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside potential if earnings growth sustains
Key drivers: Strong ROE and low leverage support valuation, Earnings growth outpacing revenue, Dividend sustainability, Bearish insider and technical signals, Low Piotroski score limiting health score
Confidence
70%
Value
72/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 13.48 below sector average of 22.11
- Forward P/E of 11.26 suggests improving earnings outlook
- Trades below intrinsic value of $279.66
Watchpoints
- Current price ($127.79) above Graham Number ($109.99), limiting defensive appeal
- Price/Book of 2.25 above sector median
Future
68/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth of 19.50% YoY and 25.7% Q/Q
- Forward P/E contraction implies confidence in future earnings
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth negative at -0.80% YoY
- PEG Ratio unavailable, limiting growth-adjusted valuation
Past
58/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-Year price return of +147.1% shows strong long-term appreciation
- History of frequent earnings beats prior to recent quarters
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings surprise trend negative: 2 beats in last 4 quarters
- Average surprise over last 4 quarters: -0.86%
Health
55/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 2.16 indicates solid short-term liquidity
- Debt/Equity of 0.43 is conservative
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 reflects marginal financial strength
- Altman Z-Score missing, creating uncertainty in financial distress risk
- ROA of 2.10% is low for financial services sector
Dividend
70/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.74% above market average
- Payout ratio of 33.58% is sustainable
- Dividend strength score of 50/100 allows room for growth
Watchpoints
- 5-Year average yield unavailable, limiting trend analysis
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$127.79
Analyst Target
$143.83
Upside/Downside
+12.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AFG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AFG
American Financial Group, Inc.
Primary
|
+147.1% | +12.2% | +0.9% | +4.0% | -6.8% | -2.5% |
|
AEG
Aegon Ltd.
Peer
|
+139.0% | +64.7% | +22.4% | +6.0% | +0.4% | +0.8% |
|
AIZ
Assurant, Inc.
Peer
|
+91.8% | +90.7% | +14.3% | +26.2% | -3.5% | -0.3% |
|
AMG
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.
Peer
|
+181.7% | +94.2% | +71.8% | +48.2% | +9.8% | -1.9% |
|
ACGLO
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Peer
|
+10.5% | +14.5% | +4.6% | +1.7% | +1.2% | +1.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
13.48
Forward P/E
11.26
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.25
P/S Ratio
1.33
EV/Revenue
1.35
EV/EBITDA
8.99
Market Cap
$10.66B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
9.96%
Operating Margin
12.72%
Gross Margin
17.85%
ROE
16.91%
ROA
2.1%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-0.8%
Earnings Growth
+19.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+18.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.43
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.16
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.0
Good
Cash/Share
$23.06
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-03
$N/A
2025-11-04
$2.69
+7.2% surprise
2025-08-05
$2.14
+1.7% surprise
2025-05-06
$1.84
-11.5% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AFG against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(6 bullish, 111 neutral, 91 bearish)
P/E Ratio
13.48
This Stock
vs
30.39
Sector Avg
-55.6%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
16.91%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-323.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
9.96%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-88.1%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.43
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-71.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-0.8%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
-102.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.16
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
-42.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AFG
American Financial Group, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $10.66B | 13.48 | 16.9% | 10.0% | $127.79 | |
|
AEG
Aegon Ltd.
|
BEARISH | $11.74B | 8.47 | 15.0% | 10.1% | $7.71 | |
|
AIZ
Assurant, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $11.78B | 14.47 | 15.4% | 6.8% | $233.39 | |
|
AMG
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $9.09B | 19.73 | 16.2% | 26.0% | $319.82 | |
|
ACGLO
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
|
NEUTRAL | $12.4B | 4.53 | 19.5% | 22.1% | $21.27 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | GILLIS MICHELLE A | Officer | Gift | 542 | - |
| 2025-12-18 | THOMPSON DAVID LAWRENCE JR | Officer | Gift | 828 | - |
| 2025-12-18 | LINDNER STEPHEN CRAIG JR | Director | Gift | 44 | - |
| 2025-12-16 | LINDNER CARL H III | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 403 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | LINDNER S CRAIG | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 3,342 | - |
| 2025-12-09 | LINDNER CARL H III | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 37,424 | - |
| 2025-12-03 | LINDNER STEPHEN CRAIG JR | Director | Gift | 574 | - |
| 2025-11-07 | HERTZMAN BRIAN S. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,777 | $253,240 |
| 2025-09-03 | MURRAY AMY Y. | Director | Sale | 920 | $125,703 |
| 2025-09-02 | WEISS MARK A. | General Counsel | Gift | 467 | - |
| 2025-08-21 | LINDNER STEPHEN CRAIG JR | Director | Sale | 10,000 | $1,343,100 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
6 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-01-15
Overweight
Piper Sandler
2025-11-06
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-08-12
Market Perform
Market Perform
Jefferies
2025-08-11
Hold
Hold
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AFG from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.