AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. - Fundamental Analysis
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AGO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Insurance - Specialty
Current Price
Live
$83.26
Analyst Target
$107.0
+28.5%
Upside
52W High
$96.5
52W Low
$74.09
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$3.96B
P/E
10.36
ROE
7.4%
Profit margin
44.1%
Debt/Equity
0.3
Dividend yield
1.61%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, indicating poor financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a definitive distress risk assessment. Despite this, AGO trades below the Graham Number of $148.07 at $83.26, suggesting potential undervaluation, supported by a low P/E of 10.36 versus sector average of 22.56. However, declining earnings growth (YoY: -31.20%) and negative insider sentiment counterbalance value appeal. Analysts recommend a 'buy' with a $107.00 target, implying upside, but inconsistent quarterly execution and bearish technical trend temper near-term optimism.
Key Strengths
Significantly undervalued relative to Graham Number ($148.07 vs. current price $83.26)
Low valuation multiples: P/E of 10.36 well below sector average of 22.56
Exceptionally high profitability margins: Gross (90.34%), Operating (67.14%), and Net (44.13%)
Low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30, well below sector average of 1.64, indicating conservative leverage
Strong dividend coverage with low payout ratio of 16.30% despite modest yield
Key Risks
Very weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals deteriorating financial health and operational instability
Earnings under pressure: YoY earnings growth down 31.20% and Q/Q down 38.60%
Absence of Altman Z-Score limits ability to assess bankruptcy risk; requires caution
Bearish insider activity: $5.36M in executive sales with zero buys in last 6 months
Technical trend at 0/100 indicates strong bearish momentum in price action
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$107.0
+28.5% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
54
Moderate
85
40
55
30
60
AI Verdict
Neutral with value potential but significant health and momentum concerns
Key drivers: Undervaluation relative to Graham Number and sector, Weak Piotroski F-Score and negative earnings growth, Bearish insider and technical signals, High profitability and low leverage as stabilizing factors
Confidence
70%
Value
85/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price 44% below Graham Number ($83.26 vs $148.07)
- P/E of 10.36 is less than half the sector average (22.56)
- Price/Book of 0.69 suggests asset-based undervaluation
Watchpoints
- PEG unavailable due to negative earnings growth, limiting growth-adjusted valuation
Future
40/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 10.40% YoY remains positive
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth surged +154.5%, indicating possible rebound
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth YoY down 31.20%
- Q/Q earnings growth down 38.60%
- Forward P/E higher than current P/E (11.42 vs 10.36), implying deceleration
Past
55/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long-term 5Y return of +143.2% shows strong historical appreciation
- Frequent earnings beats: 17 of 25 quarters beat estimates
Watchpoints
- High volatility in earnings surprises (e.g., -77.7%, +411.6%)
- Recent quarters show declining consistency: only 2 of last 4 beats
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30 is very low and safe
- Current and Quick Ratios near 1.0 indicate short-term liquidity adequacy
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available, creating analytical gap
- ROE of 7.41% is low despite high margins, suggesting capital inefficiency
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 16.30% is very low, indicating high sustainability
- Dividend has been maintained despite earnings volatility
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 25/100 reflects low yield (1.61%) and no growth history
- No 5-year average yield data, suggesting inconsistency or recent initiation
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$83.26
Analyst Target
$107.0
Upside/Downside
+28.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AGO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Primary
|
+143.2% | +41.2% | -8.7% | -1.1% | -8.4% | -2.1% |
|
BGC
BGC Group, Inc.
Peer
|
+140.9% | +117.3% | -6.3% | -9.0% | -1.8% | -1.4% |
|
BHF
Brighthouse Financial, Inc.
Peer
|
+62.1% | +18.8% | +26.1% | +27.7% | -1.0% | +0.1% |
|
BANF
BancFirst Corporation
Peer
|
+88.2% | +37.7% | -9.1% | -13.6% | -0.6% | -3.8% |
|
AB
AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.
Peer
|
+61.4% | +31.7% | +5.9% | -5.4% | -0.1% | -3.0% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
10.36
Forward P/E
11.42
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.69
P/S Ratio
4.35
EV/Revenue
4.38
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$3.96B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
44.13%
Operating Margin
67.14%
Gross Margin
90.34%
ROE
7.41%
ROA
2.33%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+10.4%
Earnings Growth
-31.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-38.6%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.3
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.02
Good
Quick Ratio
0.99
Poor
Cash/Share
$35.26
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-06
$2.57
+67.2% surprise
2025-08-07
$1.01
-36.6% surprise
2025-05-08
$3.18
+22.1% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AGO against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
P/E Ratio
10.36
This Stock
vs
30.38
Sector Avg
-65.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.41%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-197.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
44.13%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-47.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.3
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-80.4%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
10.4%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
-65.7%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.02
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
-73.1%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.96B | 10.36 | 7.4% | 44.1% | $83.26 | |
|
BGC
BGC Group, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.23B | 27.84 | 14.6% | 6.3% | $8.91 | |
|
BHF
Brighthouse Financial, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.67B | 4.52 | 16.2% | 12.3% | $64.11 | |
|
BANF
BancFirst Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $3.64B | 16.66 | 14.1% | 35.6% | $108.47 | |
|
AB
AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.
|
BEARISH | $4.31B | 13.16 | 19.8% | -% | $38.96 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | FREDERICO DOMINIC J | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 25,000 | $2,095,750 |
| 2025-08-11 | BAILENSON ROBERT A | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 40,000 | $3,260,400 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
4 analysts
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-19
Outperform
Outperform
UBS
2025-11-17
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2025-08-13
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AGO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.