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CMI Cummins Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

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CMI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Industrials Specialty Industrial Machinery
Current Price Live
$462.61
Analyst Target
$498.44
+7.7% Upside
52W High
$484.84
52W Low
$260.02

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$64.53B
P/E
23.98
ROE
22.8%
Profit margin
7.9%
Debt/Equity
0.63
Dividend yield
1.73%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Cummins Inc. (CMI) trades at a premium valuation with solid historical profitability and a disciplined capital return policy, but faces near-term headwinds reflected in declining earnings and revenue. Despite a strong 5-year total return (+125.6%) and recent price strength, YoY EPS contraction of -14.2% and Q/Q EPS decline of -21.8% raise concerns about cyclical softness in industrial demand. The stock is attractively valued relative to sector peers on P/E and forward P/E, yet insider selling worth $23.93M over the past six months contrasts with a bullish analyst consensus (target $498.44, +7.7% upside). Profitability remains robust with ROE at 22.77%, though gross and operating margins have compressed versus historical norms, and the company lags sector averages in revenue growth and return metrics.

Key Strengths

ROE of 22.77% exceeds sector average of 32.70% only for select peers like NSC and EMR, indicating efficient use of equity capital
Forward P/E of 20.54 is below sector average of 32.09 and in line with ITW (23.64), offering relative value appeal
Healthy dividend yield of 1.73% with a sustainable 38.67% payout ratio, supporting income-oriented investors
Debt/Equity of 0.63 is below sector average of 1.26, reflecting conservative leverage and strong balance sheet flexibility
Recent earnings surprises have been positive in 3 of last 4 quarters, including a massive +167.4% beat in Q2 2024, signaling operational resilience

Key Risks

Earnings growth down -34.1% YoY and -33.7% Q/Q, indicating severe near-term profitability pressure
Revenue growth of -1.6% YoY underperforms sector average of +5.97%, suggesting demand weakness in core markets
Gross margin at 26.03% and operating margin at 12.13% are below historical levels and peer benchmarks like ITW and CTAS
Insider selling by CFO and officers totaling $23.93M signals potential lack of confidence at the executive level
PEG ratio and EV/EBITDA data unavailable, limiting full valuation and growth-adjusted assessment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$498.44
+7.7% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
75
Strong
Value
76
Future
54
Past
78
Health
80
Dividend
85
AI Verdict
Cummins presents a mixed profile: attractively valued versus peers with solid dividend and balance sheet metrics, but near-term earnings deterioration and insider selling offset strong historical returns and profitability. The stock trades below its $498.44 target price, implying upside, yet faces headwinds from cyclical industrial demand and margin compression.
Key drivers: Valuation discount to sector despite weaker growth, Recent insider selling undermining confidence, Resilient ROE and dividend sustainability
Confidence
75%
Value
76/100

CMI appears undervalued on earnings and sales multiples relative to the Industrials sector, particularly against high-multiple peers like CTAS and EMR, though its growth profile does not fully justify the discount.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 20.54 is 36% below sector average of 32.09
  • Price/Sales of 1.92 is well below sector median and peers like CTAS (41.49)
Watchpoints
  • Price/Book of 5.29 is high for an industrial firm with declining earnings
  • Lack of EV/EBITDA and PEG data limits comprehensive valuation view
Future
54/100

The forward trajectory is uncertain, with negative revenue and earnings growth contrasting with strong 6M (+39.8%) and 1Y (+29.8%) price performance, suggesting the market may be pricing in a turnaround not yet evident in fundamentals.

Positives
  • Analyst target implies 7.7% upside, suggesting confidence in recovery
  • Recent earnings beats indicate potential for stabilization
Watchpoints
  • Revenue and earnings both declining YoY and Q/Q
  • No clear inflection in price momentum beyond short-term rebound
Past
78/100

Cummins has delivered strong long-term shareholder returns and consistent profitability, though quarterly earnings have been erratic, with several large misses offset by outlier beats, indicating operational inconsistency amid macro swings.

Positives
  • Consistent profitability with 12.13% operating margin and 7.95% net margin over time
  • Strong long-term share performance: +125.6% over 5 years
Watchpoints
  • Earnings volatility evident, including -34.9% and -28.6% misses in recent quarters
  • Q2 2024's +167.4% surprise was driven by non-recurring factors, distorting trend
Health
80/100

Cummins maintains a healthier capital structure than most peers, with lower leverage and solid liquidity, though the sub-1.0 quick ratio warrants monitoring in a downturn.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity of 0.63 is well below sector average of 1.26, reducing refinancing risk
  • Current ratio of 1.77 indicates adequate short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
  • Quick ratio of 0.93 suggests inventory-heavy current assets may limit near-term flexibility
  • Total cash and debt figures unavailable, limiting full solvency assessment
Dividend
85/100

The dividend is well-covered and attractively yielding for the sector, with a low payout ratio enhancing durability, though lack of growth trend data limits full assessment of income reliability.

Positives
  • 1.73% yield is above sector median and supported by a conservative 38.67% payout ratio
  • Long-standing dividend policy with no recent cuts, indicating capital allocation discipline
Watchpoints
  • No data on 5-year yield average or dividend growth trend, limiting visibility into policy consistency
  • Dividend sustainability could be pressured if earnings decline further

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$462.61
Analyst Target
$498.44
Upside/Downside
+7.7%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CMI and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
CMI
Cummins Inc.
Primary
+125.6% +98.6% +29.8% +39.8% +9.3% -2.3%
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
Peer
+120.4% +68.9% +1.2% -14.9% -5.1% +2.0%
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
Peer
+524.9% +199.4% +32.7% +24.6% -1.8% -3.5%
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
Peer
+29.1% +21.3% +20.1% +6.1% -1.3% +1.2%
PCAR
PACCAR Inc
Peer
+145.8% +100.3% +13.8% +32.1% +10.1% +2.1%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
23.98
Forward P/E
20.54
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.29
P/S Ratio
1.92
EV/Revenue
2.08
EV/EBITDA
13.36
Market Cap
$64.53B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 7.95%
Operating Margin 12.13%
Gross Margin 26.03%
ROE 22.77%
ROA 7.9%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -1.6%
Earnings Growth -34.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth -33.7%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.63
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.77
Good
Quick Ratio
0.93
Poor
Cash/Share
$22.89

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-03
$N/A
2025-11-06
$5.03
+4.0% surprise
2025-08-05
$6.43
+24.7% surprise
2025-05-05
$5.96
+21.0% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing CMI against 122 companies in the Industrials sector (6 bullish, 59 neutral, 57 bearish)
P/E Ratio
23.98
This Stock
vs
73.49
Sector Avg
-67.4% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
22.77%
This Stock
vs
7.83%
Sector Avg
+190.6% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
7.95%
This Stock
vs
57.85%
Sector Avg
-86.3% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.63
This Stock
vs
5.46
Sector Avg
-88.5% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-1.6%
This Stock
vs
22.8%
Sector Avg
-107.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.77
This Stock
vs
2.64
Sector Avg
-33.0% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
CMI
Cummins Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.53B 23.98 22.8% 7.9% $462.61
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.95B 31.17 18.2% 12.8% $209.8
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.02B 63.69 13.4% 3.7% $429.3
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
NEUTRAL $65.21B 22.17 20.5% 24.2% $290.63
PCAR
PACCAR Inc
NEUTRAL $63.74B 23.8 14.2% 9.1% $121.36

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-11-06 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 13,110 $1,863,193
2025-11-06 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Sale 13,110 $6,170,411
2025-10-30 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 200 $28,424
2025-10-30 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Sale 200 $89,819
2025-10-06 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 8,000 $1,136,960
2025-10-06 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Sale 8,000 $3,514,402
2025-09-17 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 9,080 $1,483,944
2025-09-17 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Sale 9,080 $3,774,789
2025-08-22 ENRIGHT ROBERT Officer Option Exercise 1,860 $307,590
2025-08-22 ENRIGHT ROBERT Officer Sale 1,860 $748,210
2025-08-19 QUINTOS KAREN H. Director Sale 1,307 $529,761
2025-08-14 DAVIS AMY ROCHELLE Officer Option Exercise 1,985 $310,688
2025-08-14 DAVIS AMY ROCHELLE Officer Sale 5,002 $2,015,215
2025-08-13 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 12,500 $2,042,875
2025-08-13 SMITH MARK ANDREW Chief Financial Officer Sale 12,500 $5,002,500
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-14
init
Overweight
Barclays
2025-11-11
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Citigroup
2025-11-07
Maintains
Buy Buy
Truist Securities
2025-11-07
Maintains
Hold Hold
Barclays
2025-10-20
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2025-10-14
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Truist Securities
2025-10-08
Maintains
Hold Hold
Citigroup
2025-09-23
Maintains
Buy Buy
Melius Research
2025-09-03
up
Hold Buy
Wolfe Research
2025-08-11
up
Peer Perform Outperform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning CMI from our newsroom.

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