EC

BEARISH

$13.8 Live

Ecopetrol S.A. · NYSE

Target $11.69 (-15.3%)

$7.8 52W Range $15.62

EC Ecopetrol S.A. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH

Console Chart News

EC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NYSE • Energy • Oil & Gas Integrated

Current Price Live

$13.8

Analyst Target

$11.69

-15.3% Downside

52W High

$15.62

52W Low

$7.8

Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Peers SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 26, 2026

Market cap

$28.37B

P/E

11.4

ROE

11.8%

Profit margin

7.5%

Debt/Equity

1.0

Dividend yield

4.79%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence

85%

Ecopetrol (EC) exhibits severe fundamental deterioration, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and a technical trend score of 10/100. While the Graham Number suggests a theoretical defensive value, it is an outlier contradicted by an intrinsic value of $8.47 and a current price of $13.80. The company is facing a crisis of growth with earnings plummeting 60.8% YoY and a dividend payout ratio of 95.59% that is unsustainable given the current earnings trajectory. With zero earnings beats in the last four quarters and a target price ($11.69) below the current market price, the outlook is negative.

Key Strengths

Low P/E ratio (11.40) relative to sector average

Acceptable current ratio (1.55) indicating short-term liquidity

Positive ROE (11.80%) despite earnings decline

Strong 5-year historical price appreciation (+103%)

Moderate dividend yield (4.79%)

Key Risks

Severe earnings collapse (-60.8% YoY)

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (95.59%)

Weak financial health as indicated by Piotroski F-Score (2/9)

Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (0/4 beats in last year)

Strongly bearish technical trend (10/100)

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$10.15

-26.4% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall

Weak

Value

Future

Past

Health

Dividend

AI Verdict

Underperform

Key drivers: Negative earnings growth, Poor Piotroski health score, Unsustainable dividend payout, Bearish technicals

Confidence

90%

Value

45/100

P/E is low, but the intrinsic value suggests the stock is overvalued by approximately 38%.

Positives

Low P/E ratio
Low PEG ratio (0.77)

Watchpoints

Current price exceeds intrinsic value ($8.47)
Graham number is an unrealistic outlier

Future

20/100

Growth metrics are deeply negative across both YoY and Q/Q timeframes.

Positives

Forward P/E is slightly lower than trailing

Watchpoints

Revenue growth -17.20%
Earnings growth -60.80%
Consistent earnings misses

Past

55/100

Long-term gains are being eroded by recent fundamental decay.

Positives

Strong 1Y and 5Y price returns

Watchpoints

Recent 1M trend is negative
Earnings progression is trending downward

Health

20/100

The Piotroski score is a critical red flag for operational and financial stability.

Positives

Current ratio > 1.0

Watchpoints

Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health
Debt/Equity at 1.00

Dividend

30/100

Dividend strength is rated 40/100 due to high payout risk.

Positives

Yield of 4.79% is attractive to income seekers

Watchpoints

Payout ratio of 95.59% leaves no room for error
Falling earnings threaten dividend coverage

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price

$13.8

Analyst Target

$11.69

Upside/Downside

-15.3%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for EC and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24

Company	5Y	3Y	1Y	6M	1M	1W
EC Ecopetrol S.A. Primary	+103.0%	+102.6%	+57.1%	+51.0%	-7.4%	+1.9%
DVN Devon Energy Corporation Peer	+165.9%	+1.6%	+32.6%	+39.1%	+8.6%	-3.7%
HAL Halliburton Company Peer	+110.8%	+17.6%	+71.9%	+64.0%	+0.4%	-5.0%
CTRA Coterra Energy Inc. Peer	+164.7%	+46.9%	+36.2%	+44.6%	-4.7%	+8.6%
EXE Expand Energy Corporation Peer	+178.2%	+42.0%	+3.3%	-6.9%	-7.1%	-5.5%

Ecopetrol S.A.

Primary

+103.0%

+102.6%

+57.1%

+51.0%

-7.4%

+1.9%

DVN

Devon Energy Corporation

Peer

+165.9%

+1.6%

+32.6%

+39.1%

+8.6%

-3.7%

HAL

Halliburton Company

Peer

+110.8%

+17.6%

+71.9%

+64.0%

+0.4%

-5.0%

CTR

Coterra Energy Inc.

Peer

+164.7%

+46.9%

+36.2%

+44.6%

-4.7%

+8.6%

EXE

Expand Energy Corporation

Peer

+178.2%

+42.0%

+3.3%

-6.9%

-7.1%

-5.5%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

11.4

9.87

0.77

0.01

N/A

$28.37B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 7.54%

Operating Margin N/A

Gross Margin 32.76%

ROE 11.8%

ROA 5.66%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -17.2%

Earnings Growth -60.8%

Q/Q Revenue Growth -13.77%

Q/Q Earnings Growth -60.8%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity

1.0

Moderate

Current Ratio

1.55

Good

Quick Ratio

1.22

Good

Cash/Share

$N/A

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-05

$N/A

2026-03-03

$0.2

-27.1% surprise

2025-11-12

$0.33

-7.7% surprise

2025-08-13

$0.22

-37.1% surprise

Energy Sector Comparison

Comparing EC against 88 companies in the Energy sector (7 bullish, 32 neutral, 49 bearish)

P/E Ratio

11.4

This Stock

31.95

Sector Avg

-64.3% (Discount)

Return on Equity (ROE)

11.8%

This Stock

5.41%

Sector Avg

+118.0% (Excellent)

Profit Margin

7.54%

This Stock

7.5%

Sector Avg

+0.6% (Better)

Debt to Equity

1.0

This Stock

1.45

Sector Avg

-31.2% (Less Debt)

Revenue Growth

-17.2%

This Stock

23.66%

Sector Avg

-172.7% (Slower)

Current Ratio

1.55

This Stock

2.23

Sector Avg

-30.4% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company	AI Rating	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Profit Margin	Price
EC Ecopetrol S.A.	BEARISH	$28.37B	11.4	11.8%	7.5%	$13.8
DVN Devon Energy Corporation	NEUTRAL	$30.13B	11.65	17.7%	16.5%	$48.57	Compare
HAL Halliburton Company	BEARISH	$30.72B	24.45	12.3%	5.8%	$36.68	Compare
CTRA Coterra Energy Inc.	NEUTRAL	$25.46B	14.97	12.3%	24.6%	$33.53	Compare
EXE Expand Energy Corporation	NEUTRAL	$24.09B	13.24	10.1%	15.6%	$100.19	Compare

EC Ecopetrol S.A.

BEARISH

Mkt Cap

$28.4B

P/E

11.4

ROE

11.8%

Price

$13.8

Compare with EC

HAL Halliburton Company

Compare with EC

CTRA Coterra Energy Inc.

Compare with EC

Compare with EC

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

20-F

2025-04-23

EC filed its 20-F annual report on April 23, 2025. As no specific financial data or risk factors were provided in the metadata, the filing serves as the company's comprehensive annual disclosure for the period.

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning EC from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest

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EC

EC Ecopetrol S.A. - Fundamental Analysis

At a glance

AI Analysis

Key Strengths

Key Risks

Performance Snowflake

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Historical Performance Trends

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Valuation Metrics

Profitability

Growth

Financial Health

Quarterly Earnings History

Energy Sector Comparison

Similar Companies

SEC Filings

Past News Coverage

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