EL
BEARISH
$77.82
Live
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · NYSE
Target $95.82
(+23.1%)
$56.66
52W Range
$121.64
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 26, 2026
Market cap
$28.15B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-4.3%
Profit margin
-1.2%
Debt/Equity
2.33
Dividend yield
1.8%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) exhibits severe fundamental weakness, highlighted by a critical Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, indicating deteriorating financial health. While the company maintains strong gross margins (74.32%) and has a history of beating earnings estimates, these are overshadowed by an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 471.43% and a high Debt/Equity ratio of 2.33. Massive insider selling exceeding $1 billion and a catastrophic 5-year price decline of 73.5% suggest a lack of confidence from internal stakeholders and long-term investors. Despite analyst 'buy' recommendations, the combination of negative ROE and weak deterministic scores points to significant structural risk.
Key Strengths
Very high gross margins (74.32%) indicating strong brand pricing power
Consistent track record of beating quarterly earnings estimates (3/4 recently)
Positive operating margin (14.26%) despite negative net profit
Modest positive revenue growth (5.60% YoY)
Strong analyst support with a target price of $95.82
Key Risks
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (471.43%) suggesting a high risk of dividend cut
Weak financial health as evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9
High leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.33
Severe long-term value destruction (-73.5% 5-year price change)
Heavy insider liquidation with over $1 billion in sales and zero buys
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$68.5
-12.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
27
Weak
40
50
20
15
10
AI Verdict
High Risk / Fundamental Decay
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score 2/9, Dividend Payout 471%, Insider Selling $1B+, Negative ROE
Confidence
90%
Value
40/100
Trades at a significant premium to book value despite lack of current profitability.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 25.84 is moderate for the sector
Watchpoints
- Price/Book of 6.98 is excessive given negative ROE
- Negative profit margins
Future
50/100
Growth is present but sluggish, failing to offset structural health issues.
Positives
- Positive revenue growth
- Strong earnings surprise history
Watchpoints
- Low YoY revenue growth (5.6%) compared to sector averages
Past
20/100
Long-term trend is overwhelmingly bearish.
Positives
- Recent 1Y recovery (+34.8%)
Watchpoints
- 5Y change of -73.5% indicates a long-term collapse in valuation
Health
15/100
Deterministic health scores are in the 'Weak' category.
Positives
- Current ratio above 1.0
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9 (Weak)
- Debt/Equity 2.33
- Negative ROE
Dividend
10/100
Dividend is likely being funded by debt or cash reserves rather than earnings.
Positives
- Yield of 1.80% provides some income
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 471.43% is mathematically unsustainable
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$77.82
Analyst Target
$95.82
Upside/Downside
+23.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for EL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-24
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
Primary
|
-73.5% | -66.7% | +34.8% | -23.3% | +6.4% | +2.1% |
|
KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
Peer
|
-28.1% | -31.4% | -14.9% | -5.3% | -0.3% | +1.2% |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporation
Peer
|
-36.6% | -40.5% | +38.4% | +20.2% | -22.3% | -0.8% |
|
GIS
General Mills, Inc.
Peer
|
-7.9% | -31.6% | -23.4% | -11.9% | -0.7% | +1.1% |
|
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Peer
|
+46.2% | -13.3% | +38.5% | +24.1% | +16.8% | +3.6% |
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
Primary
5Y
-73.5%
3Y
-66.7%
1Y
+34.8%
6M
-23.3%
1M
+6.4%
1W
+2.1%
KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
Peer
5Y
-28.1%
3Y
-31.4%
1Y
-14.9%
6M
-5.3%
1M
-0.3%
1W
+1.2%
DG
Dollar General Corporation
Peer
5Y
-36.6%
3Y
-40.5%
1Y
+38.4%
6M
+20.2%
1M
-22.3%
1W
-0.8%
GIS
General Mills, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-7.9%
3Y
-31.6%
1Y
-23.4%
6M
-11.9%
1M
-0.7%
1W
+1.1%
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Peer
5Y
+46.2%
3Y
-13.3%
1Y
+38.5%
6M
+24.1%
1M
+16.8%
1W
+3.6%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
25.84
PEG Ratio
1.42
P/B Ratio
6.98
P/S Ratio
1.92
EV/Revenue
2.35
EV/EBITDA
15.63
Market Cap
$28.15B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-1.21%
Operating Margin
14.26%
Gross Margin
74.32%
ROE
-4.34%
ROA
4.42%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+5.6%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+5.62%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.33
High debt
Current Ratio
1.36
Good
Quick Ratio
0.9
Poor
Cash/Share
$8.52
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$4.2B
Gross Margin
76.5%
Op. Margin
14.4%
Net Margin
3.8%
Total Assets
$19.6B
Liabilities
$15.6B
Equity
$4.0B
Debt/Equity
3.87x
Operating CF
$1.1B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
FCF Yield
90%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-01
$N/A
2026-02-05
$0.89
+6.6% surprise
2025-10-30
$0.32
+81.9% surprise
2025-08-20
$0.09
+1.1% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing EL against 157 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(9 bullish, 57 neutral, 91 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-4.34%
This Stock
vs
-13.47%
Sector Avg
-67.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-1.21%
This Stock
vs
-8.44%
Sector Avg
-85.6%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.33
This Stock
vs
1.98
Sector Avg
+17.9%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
5.6%
This Stock
vs
120.32%
Sector Avg
-95.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.36
This Stock
vs
2.37
Sector Avg
-42.6%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
|
BEARISH | $28.15B | - | -4.3% | -1.2% | $77.82 | |
|
KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
|
BEARISH | $27.3B | - | -12.8% | -23.4% | $23.06 | Compare |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $26.11B | 17.31 | 19.0% | 3.5% | $118.56 | Compare |
|
GIS
General Mills, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $25.29B | 8.96 | 30.9% | 15.2% | $47.41 | Compare |
|
ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
|
NEUTRAL | $32.44B | 27.22 | 5.2% | 1.4% | $67.51 | Compare |
EL
The Estée Lauder...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$28.1B
P/E
-
ROE
-4.3%
Price
$77.82
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | DE LA FAVERIE STEPHANE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 5,787 | - |
| 2026-02-27 | SHRIVASTAVA AKHIL | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 5,265 | - |
| 2025-11-26 | LA LANDE RASHIDA K | General Counsel | Sale | 1,604 | $151,498 |
| 2025-11-26 | LAUDER JANE A | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 17,840 | $1,683,739 |
| 2025-11-26 | LAUDER JANE A | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Option Exercise | 17,840 | $1,596,145 |
| 2025-11-18 | WEBSTER MERIDITH P | Officer | Sale | 5,430 | $476,971 |
| 2025-11-11 | STERNLICHT BARRY S | Director | Sale | 3,972 | $364,749 |
| 2025-11-11 | STERNLICHT BARRY S | Director | Option Exercise | 3,972 | $335,038 |
| 2025-11-06 | LEONARD A LAUDER 2013 REVOCABLE TRUST | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 2,786,040 | $249,907,788 |
| 2025-11-06 | LAL 2015 ELF TRUST | Trustee | Sale | 5,670,000 | $508,599,000 |
| 2025-11-06 | EVELYN H. LAUDER 2012 MARITAL TRUST TWO | Trustee | Sale | 2,845,283 | $255,221,885 |
| 2025-11-04 | LEONARD A LAUDER 2013 REVOCABLE TRUST | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Stock Award | 2,519,402 | - |
| 2025-11-04 | LAL 2015 ELF TRUST | Trustee | Stock Award | 5,670,000 | - |
| 2025-11-04 | EVELYN H. LAUDER 2012 MARITAL TRUST TWO | Trustee | Stock Award | 2,845,283 | - |
| 2025-11-03 | LAUDER WILLIAM P | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Stock Award | 7,238 | - |
DE LA FAVERIE STEPHANE
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-27
5,787 shares
SHRIVASTAVA AKHIL
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-27
5,265 shares
LA LANDE RASHIDA K
General Counsel
2025-11-26
1,604 shares
·
$151,498
LAUDER JANE A
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-26
17,840 shares
·
$1,683,739
LAUDER JANE A
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-26
17,840 shares
·
$1,596,145
WEBSTER MERIDITH P
Officer
2025-11-18
5,430 shares
·
$476,971
STERNLICHT BARRY S
Director
2025-11-11
3,972 shares
·
$364,749
STERNLICHT BARRY S
Director
2025-11-11
3,972 shares
·
$335,038
LEONARD A LAUDER 2013 REVOCABLE TRUST
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-06
2,786,040 shares
·
$249,907,788
LAL 2015 ELF TRUST
Trustee
2025-11-06
5,670,000 shares
·
$508,599,000
EVELYN H. LAUDER 2012 MARITAL TRUST TWO
Trustee
2025-11-06
2,845,283 shares
·
$255,221,885
LEONARD A LAUDER 2013 REVOCABLE TRUST
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-04
2,519,402 shares
LAL 2015 ELF TRUST
Trustee
2025-11-04
5,670,000 shares
EVELYN H. LAUDER 2012 MARITAL TRUST TWO
Trustee
2025-11-04
2,845,283 shares
LAUDER WILLIAM P
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-03
7,238 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
8-K/A
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K/A
10-Q
EL's 10-Q filing dated October 30, 2025, indicates no significant changes to critical accounting policies since the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025. The company cautions that actual results may differ materially from forward-looking expectations regarding sales, earnings, liquidity, and future operations.
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
22 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-17
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2026-04-15
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2026-04-14
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2026-04-08
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
UBS
2026-04-07
Neutral
Neutral
Deutsche Bank
2026-03-30
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-03-24
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
TD Cowen
2026-02-09
Hold
Hold
Barclays
2026-02-09
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2026-02-06
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning EL from our newsroom.
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