GFL
BEARISH
$39.67
Live
GFL Environmental Inc. · NYSE
Target $52.17
(+31.5%)
$36.96
52W Range
$52.0
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$14.32B
P/E
96.76
ROE
3.3%
Profit margin
58.0%
Debt/Equity
1.06
Dividend yield
0.16%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
GFL presents a concerning valuation profile, trading at $39.67 despite a Graham Number of $11.72 and an Intrinsic Value of $2.87. While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable health, the company suffers from poor short-term liquidity with a current ratio of 0.58. A massive discrepancy exists between the reported profit margin (57.95%) and the operating margin (6.37%), suggesting non-operational gains. Despite bullish analyst targets, the technical trend is completely bearish (0/100) and the stock has declined 18.3% over the last year.
Key Strengths
Strong Year-over-Year EPS growth of 63.6%
Stable Piotroski F-Score (4/9)
Strong analyst consensus with a target price of $52.17
Significant market capitalization providing scale in the waste sector
Low dividend payout ratio (15.07%) allowing for capital reinvestment
Key Risks
Severe overvaluation relative to deterministic fair value models
Liquidity risk indicated by a current ratio of 0.58 and quick ratio of 0.49
Negative Q/Q revenue growth (-15.08%)
Extremely high P/E ratio (96.76) compared to historical norms
Bearish technical momentum (0/100 trend score)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$14.25
-64.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
32
Weak
15
55
30
40
20
AI Verdict
Overvalued with Liquidity Concerns
Key drivers: Valuation gap, Technical bearishness, Liquidity ratios, Operating margin vs Net margin
Confidence
90%
Value
15/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E is lower than trailing P/E
Watchpoints
- Price is ~3.4x the Graham Number
- P/E of 96.76 is excessive
- Intrinsic value is negligible ($2.87)
Future
55/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Strong YoY EPS growth
- High analyst target price
Watchpoints
- Negative Q/Q revenue growth
- Low ROE (3.28%)
Past
30/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Positive 5Y change (+21.1%)
Watchpoints
- 1Y return is -18.3%
- 6M return is -12.5%
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score is in the 'Stable' range (4/9)
Watchpoints
- Current ratio (0.58) is well below 1.0
- Quick ratio (0.49) indicates potential liquidity stress
Dividend
20/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Sustainable payout ratio
Watchpoints
- Negligible yield (0.16%)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$39.67
Analyst Target
$52.17
Upside/Downside
+31.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for GFL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-27
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc.
Primary
|
+21.1% | +9.7% | -18.3% | -12.5% | +1.9% | +0.6% |
|
ALLE
Allegion plc
Peer
|
+58.8% | +52.9% | +26.2% | +0.8% | +3.7% | +1.1% |
|
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
Peer
|
+2160.6% | +1158.9% | +230.5% | +30.4% | +10.1% | +3.9% |
|
HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Peer
|
+90.3% | +89.6% | +59.9% | +19.7% | -6.1% | -8.6% |
|
LECO
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+125.3% | +66.6% | +46.8% | +13.2% | -3.6% | +5.2% |
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc.
Primary
5Y
+21.1%
3Y
+9.7%
1Y
-18.3%
6M
-12.5%
1M
+1.9%
1W
+0.6%
ALL
Allegion plc
Peer
5Y
+58.8%
3Y
+52.9%
1Y
+26.2%
6M
+0.8%
1M
+3.7%
1W
+1.1%
STR
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+2160.6%
3Y
+1158.9%
1Y
+230.5%
6M
+30.4%
1M
+10.1%
1W
+3.9%
HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+90.3%
3Y
+89.6%
1Y
+59.9%
6M
+19.7%
1M
-6.1%
1W
-8.6%
LEC
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+125.3%
3Y
+66.6%
1Y
+46.8%
6M
+13.2%
1M
-3.6%
1W
+5.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
96.76
Forward P/E
39.83
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.66
P/S Ratio
2.16
EV/Revenue
3.36
EV/EBITDA
13.68
Market Cap
$14.32B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
57.95%
Operating Margin
6.37%
Gross Margin
20.67%
ROE
3.28%
ROA
1.23%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+7.3%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-15.08%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.06
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.58
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.49
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.24
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$1.7B
Gross Margin
20.0%
Op. Margin
1.8%
Net Margin
2.0%
Total Assets
$19.3B
Liabilities
$11.8B
Equity
$7.3B
Debt/Equity
1.62x
Operating CF
$0.4B
CapEx
$-0.2B
Free Cash Flow
$0.2B
FCF Yield
44%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-29
$N/A
2026-02-11
$0.36
+88.5% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.23
-12.6% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.26
+18.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing GFL against 465 companies in the Industrials sector
(39 bullish, 171 neutral, 255 bearish)
P/E Ratio
96.76
This Stock
vs
98.74
Sector Avg
-2.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.28%
This Stock
vs
-19.66%
Sector Avg
-116.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
57.95%
This Stock
vs
6.63%
Sector Avg
+773.9%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
1.06
This Stock
vs
2.65
Sector Avg
-60.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
7.3%
This Stock
vs
71.89%
Sector Avg
-89.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.58
This Stock
vs
3.1
Sector Avg
-81.2%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc.
|
BEARISH | $14.32B | 96.76 | 3.3% | 58.0% | $39.67 | |
|
ALLE
Allegion plc
|
NEUTRAL | $14.35B | 22.57 | 36.4% | 16.1% | $166.8 | Compare |
|
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $14.23B | 49.48 | 32.0% | 11.7% | $463.65 | Compare |
|
HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $14.11B | 23.3 | 12.4% | 4.8% | $358.4 | Compare |
|
LECO
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $14.05B | 27.47 | 37.2% | 12.3% | $256.26 | Compare |
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$14.3B
P/E
96.8
ROE
3.3%
Price
$39.67
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Dovigi (Patrick Joseph) | 10% Security Holder of Issuer | Stock Award | 465,550 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 250,000 | $10,947,500 |
| 2025-12-31 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Stock Award | 725,000 | - |
| 2025-12-29 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 175,000 | $7,652,750 |
| 2025-12-26 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 150,000 | $6,499,500 |
| 2025-12-24 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 150,000 | $6,513,000 |
| 2025-12-24 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Stock Award | 863,554 | - |
| 2025-12-24 | Grahek (Elizabeth Joy) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Stock Award | 33,000 | - |
| 2025-12-24 | Mazari (Hamzah) | Senior Officer of Issuer | Acquisition in the public market at price 43.45 pe | 1,725 | $74,951 |
| 2025-12-23 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 200,000 | $8,632,000 |
| 2025-12-22 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 250,000 | $10,780,000 |
| 2025-12-19 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 64,492 | $2,789,279 |
| 2025-12-19 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 349,062 | $15,107,403 |
| 2025-12-19 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Stock Award | 250,000 | - |
| 2025-12-18 | GFL Environmental Inc | Issuer | Purchase | 100,000 | $4,369,000 |
Dovigi (Patrick Joseph)
10% Security Holder of Issuer
2026-02-02
465,550 shares
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-31
250,000 shares
·
$10,947,500
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-31
725,000 shares
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-29
175,000 shares
·
$7,652,750
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-26
150,000 shares
·
$6,499,500
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-24
150,000 shares
·
$6,513,000
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-24
863,554 shares
Grahek (Elizabeth Joy)
Senior Officer of Issuer
2025-12-24
33,000 shares
Mazari (Hamzah)
Senior Officer of Issuer
2025-12-24
1,725 shares
·
$74,951
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-23
200,000 shares
·
$8,632,000
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-22
250,000 shares
·
$10,780,000
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-19
64,492 shares
·
$2,789,279
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-19
349,062 shares
·
$15,107,403
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-19
250,000 shares
GFL Environmental Inc
Issuer
2025-12-18
100,000 shares
·
$4,369,000
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
12 analysts
Citigroup
2026-04-15
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-04-14
Neutral
Underweight
JP Morgan
2026-04-10
Neutral
Neutral
RBC Capital
2026-02-12
Outperform
Outperform
Scotiabank
2026-02-12
Sector Outperform
Sector Outperform
Barclays
2026-02-12
Overweight
Overweight
Scotiabank
2026-01-21
Sector Outperform
Sector Outperform
Citigroup
2026-01-16
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-01-14
Neutral
Neutral
Goldman Sachs
2025-11-24
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning GFL from our newsroom.
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