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GFR

NEUTRAL
$6.23 Live
Greenfire Resources Ltd. · NYSE
$3.81 52W Range $7.02
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$781.41M
P/E
12.98
ROE
4.8%
Profit margin
8.1%
Debt/Equity
0.01
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
80%
GFR presents a stark dichotomy between a fortress balance sheet and collapsing operational performance. While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable but mediocre financial health, the company's near-zero debt (Debt/Equity 0.01) and P/B ratio of 0.92 provide a significant valuation floor. However, catastrophic revenue declines (-35.4% YoY) and a string of earnings misses (0/4 beats) suggest a severe deterioration in core business momentum. The stock is defensively undervalued per the Graham Number ($8.55) but fundamentally overpriced relative to its growth-based intrinsic value ($3.36).

Key Strengths

Extremely low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.01
Trading below book value (P/B 0.92), providing a margin of safety
Strong liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 1.56
Profit margins (8.13%) and ROE (4.78%) outperform sector averages
Low P/E ratio (12.98) compared to the energy sector average (31.24)

Key Risks

Severe revenue contraction (-35.4% YoY and -35.86% Q/Q)
Collapse in earnings growth (-110% YoY EPS growth)
Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (0/4 beats in last 4 quarters)
Strongly bearish technical trend (10/100)
Negative long-term price performance (5Y change of -36.2%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$5.95
-4.5% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
44
Moderate
Value
85
Future
15
Past
40
Health
80
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
Value Trap Risk
Key drivers: Strong Balance Sheet, Operational Collapse, Deep Value Valuation
Confidence
85%
Value
85/100

Ref P/E 12.98, P/B 0.92, Graham Number $8.55

Positives
  • P/B < 1.0
  • Price below Graham Number
  • P/E significantly below sector average
Watchpoints
  • Price exceeds growth-based intrinsic value
Future
15/100

Ref Growth rates and Earnings Track Record

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth -35.4%
  • EPS growth -110%
  • Consistent earnings misses
Past
40/100

Ref Historical price and EPS trends

Positives
  • Recent 1Y price recovery (+24.6%)
Watchpoints
  • Long-term 5Y decline
  • Recent shift from earnings beats to misses
Health
80/100

Ref Debt/Equity and Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Debt/Equity 0.01
  • Current Ratio 1.56
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9 is only mediocre
Dividend
0/100

Ref Yield and Payout

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend payments
  • 0/100 dividend strength

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$6.23

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for GFR and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-27
GFR
Greenfire Resources Ltd.
Primary
5Y
-36.2%
3Y
-40.0%
1Y
+24.6%
6M
+26.9%
1M
-5.3%
1W
+7.8%
HPK
HighPeak Energy, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-15.8%
3Y
-72.1%
1Y
-24.0%
6M
-3.5%
1M
+8.4%
1W
-8.1%
CLB
Core Laboratories Inc.
Peer
5Y
-37.7%
3Y
-16.6%
1Y
+50.7%
6M
+3.6%
1M
+10.1%
1W
+5.8%
GRN
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-24.4%
3Y
+26.1%
1Y
+24.6%
6M
+14.4%
1M
-1.5%
1W
+15.9%
HNR
Hallador Energy Company
Peer
5Y
+660.0%
3Y
+61.9%
1Y
+21.6%
6M
-25.0%
1M
-19.7%
1W
-4.0%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
12.98
Forward P/E
10.92
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.92
P/S Ratio
1.34
EV/Revenue
1.28
EV/EBITDA
3.98
Market Cap
$781.41M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 8.13%
Operating Margin 18.5%
Gross Margin 29.55%
ROE 4.78%
ROA 5.1%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -35.4%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth -35.86%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.01
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.56
Good
Quick Ratio
1.13
Good
Cash/Share
$0.34

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.1B
Gross Margin
40.9%
Op. Margin
8.1%
Net Margin
-6.4%
Total Assets
$1.3B
Liabilities
$0.1B
Equity
$1.2B
Debt/Equity
0.10x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
-61%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-03-12
$-0.11
-178.6% surprise
2025-11-03
$-0.12
-152.2% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.14
-54.8% surprise

Energy Sector Comparison

Comparing GFR against 107 companies in the Energy sector (9 bullish, 37 neutral, 61 bearish)
P/E Ratio
12.98
This Stock
vs
31.33
Sector Avg
-58.6% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
4.78%
This Stock
vs
3.08%
Sector Avg
+55.2% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
8.13%
This Stock
vs
5.34%
Sector Avg
+52.2% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.01
This Stock
vs
1.35
Sector Avg
-99.6% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-35.4%
This Stock
vs
20.6%
Sector Avg
-271.8% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.56
This Stock
vs
2.09
Sector Avg
-25.3% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$781M
P/E
13.0
ROE
4.8%
Price
$6.23
HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$801M
P/E
48.8
ROE
1.2%
Price
$6.34
 Compare with GFR
CLB Core Laboratories Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$804M
P/E
27.7
ROE
11.6%
Price
$17.45
 Compare with GFR
GRNT Granite Ridge...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$758M
P/E
31.9
ROE
3.9%
Price
$5.75
 Compare with GFR
HNRG Hallador Energy Company
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$715M
P/E
15.8
ROE
31.7%
Price
$15.2
 Compare with GFR

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning GFR from our newsroom.

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