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HCI

BULLISH
$155.31 Live
HCI Group, Inc. · NYSE
Target $245.0 (+57.7%)
$136.37 52W Range $210.5

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$2.02B
P/E
6.84
ROE
40.5%
Profit margin
33.2%
Debt/Equity
0.06
Dividend yield
1.03%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
HCI presents a compelling value opportunity, trading below both its Intrinsic Value ($159.04) and Graham Number ($202.39). While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable but not strong financial health, this is offset by an exceptional ROE of 40.46% and a very low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.06. The company is significantly undervalued relative to its sector, with a P/E of 6.84 compared to a sector average of 37.44. Despite a bearish technical trend, the combination of 52.1% revenue growth and consistent earnings beats suggests strong fundamental momentum.

Key Strengths

Deep value valuation with a P/E of 6.84 and PEG of 0.97
Exceptional capital efficiency with ROE at 40.46%
Strong top-line growth with 52.1% YoY revenue increase
Conservative leverage profile (Debt/Equity 0.06)
Consistent track record of beating earnings estimates (3/4 last quarters)

Key Risks

Severe bearish technical trend (0/100 score)
Extreme discrepancy in operating margin (-397.98%) vs profit margin (33.19%)
Exposure to catastrophic insurance events and regulatory changes
Lack of recent insider buying activity
Recent 6-month price decline of 23.5%
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$180.72
+16.4% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
72
Strong
Value
95
Future
90
Past
70
Health
65
Dividend
40
AI Verdict
Strong Value Play
Key drivers: Low P/E relative to growth, High ROE, Low Debt, Significant upside to analyst targets
Confidence
90%
Value
95/100

Ref P/E 6.84, PEG 0.97, Graham Number $202.39

Positives
  • Trading below Graham Number
  • P/E significantly lower than sector average
  • PEG ratio under 1.0
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Future
90/100

Ref Growth rates and Analyst Target

Positives
  • 52.1% YoY Revenue Growth
  • Explosive Q/Q Earnings Growth
  • Strong analyst target price of $245
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Past
70/100

Ref Historical price changes and Earnings track record

Positives
  • 137% 5-year growth
  • Consistent earnings surprises
Watchpoints
  • Recent 6-month price correction
Health
65/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score 4/9, Debt/Equity 0.06

Positives
  • Very low Debt/Equity
  • Strong ROA
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score is only 4/9 (Stable)
Dividend
40/100

Ref Yield 1.03%, Payout 7.04%

Positives
  • Very low payout ratio (7.04%) suggests high sustainability
Watchpoints
  • Low dividend yield (1.03%)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$155.31
Analyst Target
$245.0
Upside/Downside
+57.7%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HCI and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-27
HCI
HCI Group, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+137.0%
3Y
+221.7%
1Y
+9.3%
6M
-23.5%
1M
+3.2%
1W
+0.5%
PWP
Perella Weinberg Partners
Peer
5Y
+117.7%
3Y
+158.2%
1Y
+38.4%
6M
+13.0%
1M
+27.4%
1W
+5.5%
AAM
Acadian Asset Management Inc.
Peer
5Y
+169.4%
3Y
+146.4%
1Y
+115.3%
6M
+38.3%
1M
+14.0%
1W
+1.4%
BWI
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-27.1%
3Y
-17.1%
1Y
-47.8%
6M
-25.7%
1M
+7.5%
1W
-2.0%
SYB
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+51.8%
3Y
+57.5%
1Y
-6.5%
6M
+4.8%
1M
+9.5%
1W
-2.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
6.84
Forward P/E
8.74
PEG Ratio
0.97
P/B Ratio
1.94
P/S Ratio
2.24
EV/Revenue
1.05
EV/EBITDA
2.12
Market Cap
$2.02B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 33.19%
Operating Margin -397.98%
Gross Margin 59.57%
ROE 40.46%
ROA 11.52%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +52.1%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth +52.6%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +3679.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.06
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.2
Good
Quick Ratio
0.94
Poor
Cash/Share
$93.14

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.2B
Net Margin
39.6%
Total Assets
$2.5B
Liabilities
$1.4B
Equity
$1.0B
Debt/Equity
1.36x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
99%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-25
$7.25
+43.8% surprise
2025-11-06
$4.9
+74.1% surprise
2025-08-07
$5.18
+15.1% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing HCI against 820 companies in the Financial Services sector (141 bullish, 351 neutral, 328 bearish)
P/E Ratio
6.84
This Stock
vs
36.01
Sector Avg
-81.0% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
40.46%
This Stock
vs
-0.73%
Sector Avg
-5621.9% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
33.19%
This Stock
vs
91.62%
Sector Avg
-63.8% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.06
This Stock
vs
1.36
Sector Avg
-95.5% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
52.1%
This Stock
vs
35.27%
Sector Avg
+47.7% (Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.2
This Stock
vs
3.18
Sector Avg
-62.2% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

PATEL PARESH
Chief Executive Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-23
20,000 shares · $800,000
SARAVANOS ANTHONY
Officer and Director
Stock Award
2025-12-19
621 shares
HARMSWORTH JAMES MARK
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2025-12-19
1,251 shares
COLEMAN KARIN SUE
Chief Operating Officer
Stock Award
2025-12-19
1,251 shares
GRAHAM ANDREW L
General Counsel
Stock Award
2025-12-19
1,251 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

10-K
10-K
2026-02-26

HCI filed its 10-K on February 26, 2026, but the provided excerpts contain only the document's table of contents and standard cautionary language. Consequently, specific financial highlights and detailed risk factors are not available in the provided text.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-25

HCI filed an 8-K on February 25, 2026, likely to announce its periodic financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-23

HCI filed an 8-K on December 23, 2025, likely reporting a year-end dividend declaration or a financial update.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-19
10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-07

HCI Group, Inc. significantly strengthened its liquidity position, with cash and cash equivalents increasing to $987.9 million as of September 30, 2025, compared to $532.5 million at year-end 2024. Total investments decreased to $755.2 million, driven by a reduction in fixed-maturity securities despite growth in real estate holdings. While specific risk descriptions were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes sections addressing unregistered equity sales and defaults upon senior securities.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-06

HCI filed an 8-K on November 6, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-16

HCI filed an 8-K on October 16, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-09-25

HCI filed a current report on September 25, 2025, to disclose material corporate events.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-08

As of June 30, 2025, HCI Group, Inc. significantly increased its liquidity, with cash and cash equivalents rising to $947.2 million from $532.5 million at year-end 2024. Total investments decreased to $756.2 million, primarily driven by a reduction in fixed-maturity securities. Specific risk factors were not detailed in the provided excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2025-08-07

HCI filed an 8-K on August 7, 2025, likely to announce its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-24
8-K
8-K
2025-06-13
8-K
8-K
2025-06-02
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-09
8-K
8-K
2025-05-08
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
2 analysts
Oppenheimer
2025-11-13
down
Outperform Perform
Citizens
2025-11-10
Maintains
Market Outperform Market Outperform
Truist Securities
2025-11-07
Maintains
Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning HCI from our newsroom.

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