LPX
BEARISH
$72.09
Live
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation · NYSE
Target $94.75
(+31.4%)
$68.87
52W Range
$102.86
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$5.04B
P/E
34.66
ROE
8.6%
Profit margin
5.4%
Debt/Equity
0.22
Dividend yield
1.66%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
LPX exhibits a stable but mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and lacks a provided Altman Z-Score, though its balance sheet remains liquid. The stock is severely overvalued relative to its Graham Number ($34.02) and Intrinsic Value ($14.56), trading at a significant premium despite a collapse in YoY EPS (-97.1%) and negative revenue growth (-16.6%). While analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating, the combination of aggressive CEO selling and a 0/100 technical trend suggests a strong bearish outlook.
Key Strengths
Very low Debt/Equity ratio (0.22)
Strong liquidity with a Current Ratio of 2.78
Positive long-term 3Y and 5Y price performance
Strong analyst support with a target price of $94.75
Manageable dividend payout ratio (53.85%)
Key Risks
Severe earnings collapse with YoY EPS growth of -97.1%
Negative revenue growth (-16.6% YoY and Q/Q)
Significant overvaluation relative to defensive fair value (Graham Number)
Aggressive insider selling, specifically by the CEO
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and negative 6-month price action
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$34.02
-52.8% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
41
Moderate
20
25
50
65
45
AI Verdict
Overvalued with deteriorating fundamentals
Key drivers: EPS collapse, Insider selling, Price-to-Intrinsic gap
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E (16.93) is lower than trailing P/E
Watchpoints
- Current price ($72.09) is >2x the Graham Number ($34.02)
- High PEG ratio (3.68) indicates poor value relative to growth
Future
25/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Analyst target price suggests potential upside
Watchpoints
- Negative YoY and Q/Q revenue growth
- Extreme decline in quarterly earnings progression
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Positive 3Y and 5Y returns
Watchpoints
- Sharp 1Y decline (-15.5%) and 6M decline (-18.5%)
Health
65/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Low Debt/Equity (0.22)
- High Current Ratio (2.78)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is only 'Stable', not 'Strong'
Dividend
45/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Consistent dividend payment
Watchpoints
- Low yield (1.66%)
- Dividend strength score is low (40/100)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$72.09
Analyst Target
$94.75
Upside/Downside
+31.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for LPX and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-29
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Primary
|
+16.9% | +26.4% | -15.5% | -18.5% | +2.6% | -2.2% |
|
LOAR
Loar Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
+10.1% | +10.1% | -44.3% | -32.8% | -2.7% | -9.8% |
|
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
Peer
|
+7.4% | +68.5% | +78.3% | +8.1% | +4.2% | +8.5% |
|
FBIN
Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.
Peer
|
-50.1% | -27.5% | -21.7% | -17.4% | +5.3% | +2.8% |
|
CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Peer
|
+16.4% | -12.8% | -33.4% | -7.2% | -0.3% | -3.4% |
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Primary
5Y
+16.9%
3Y
+26.4%
1Y
-15.5%
6M
-18.5%
1M
+2.6%
1W
-2.2%
LOA
Loar Holdings Inc.
Peer
5Y
+10.1%
3Y
+10.1%
1Y
-44.3%
6M
-32.8%
1M
-2.7%
1W
-9.8%
MRC
Mercury Systems, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+7.4%
3Y
+68.5%
1Y
+78.3%
6M
+8.1%
1M
+4.2%
1W
+8.5%
FBI
Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-50.1%
3Y
-27.5%
1Y
-21.7%
6M
-17.4%
1M
+5.3%
1W
+2.8%
CWS
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+16.4%
3Y
-12.8%
1Y
-33.4%
6M
-7.2%
1M
-0.3%
1W
-3.4%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
34.66
Forward P/E
16.93
PEG Ratio
3.68
P/B Ratio
2.92
P/S Ratio
1.86
EV/Revenue
1.89
EV/EBITDA
12.74
Market Cap
$5.04B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
5.39%
Operating Margin
1.23%
Gross Margin
21.75%
ROE
8.58%
ROA
6.3%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-16.6%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-16.62%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.22
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.78
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.44
Good
Cash/Share
$4.18
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.6B
Gross Margin
15.0%
Op. Margin
0.7%
Net Margin
-1.4%
Total Assets
$2.6B
Liabilities
$0.9B
Equity
$1.7B
Debt/Equity
0.52x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
-12%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-17
$0.03
+279.5% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.36
-5.4% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.99
-4.3% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing LPX against 503 companies in the Industrials sector
(42 bullish, 186 neutral, 275 bearish)
P/E Ratio
34.66
This Stock
vs
94.57
Sector Avg
-63.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
8.58%
This Stock
vs
0.63%
Sector Avg
+1268.6%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
5.39%
This Stock
vs
6.41%
Sector Avg
-15.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.22
This Stock
vs
2.8
Sector Avg
-92.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-16.6%
This Stock
vs
67.36%
Sector Avg
-124.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.78
This Stock
vs
3.03
Sector Avg
-8.2%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
|
BEARISH | $5.04B | 34.66 | 8.6% | 5.4% | $72.09 | |
|
LOAR
Loar Holdings Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.03B | 71.67 | 6.4% | 14.5% | $53.75 | Compare |
|
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.05B | - | -2.1% | -3.2% | $84.09 | Compare |
|
FBIN
Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $4.98B | 16.82 | 12.4% | 6.7% | $41.54 | Compare |
|
CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $4.97B | 650.92 | 0.5% | 0.4% | $78.11 | Compare |
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$5.0B
P/E
34.7
ROE
8.6%
Price
$72.09
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | BRUCE LIZANNE M | Director | Sale | 1,300 | $102,167 |
| 2026-02-19 | GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III | Director | Purchase | 20,000 | $1,709,800 |
| 2026-02-18 | SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 28,332 | $2,509,317 |
| 2026-02-12 | DANIEL NICOLE C | General Counsel | Stock Award | 9,168 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | HAUGHIE ALAN | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 16,184 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 41,852 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | RINGBLOOM JASON PAUL | President | Stock Award | 26,843 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | DAVIS LESLIE E | Officer | Stock Award | 1,804 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | SICHLING CRAIG M | Officer | Stock Award | 5,863 | - |
| 2026-02-12 | HAMILL ANTHONY | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 6,710 | - |
| 2026-02-03 | SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 28,332 | $2,477,206 |
| 2026-01-15 | SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 69,512 | $6,391,645 |
| 2025-12-16 | SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 43,832 | $3,779,369 |
| 2025-11-07 | MACADAM STEPHEN E | Director | Purchase | 3,200 | $249,792 |
BRUCE LIZANNE M
Director
2026-03-10
1,300 shares
·
$102,167
GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS III
Director
2026-02-19
20,000 shares
·
$1,709,800
SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-18
28,332 shares
·
$2,509,317
DANIEL NICOLE C
General Counsel
2026-02-12
9,168 shares
HAUGHIE ALAN
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-12
16,184 shares
SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-12
41,852 shares
RINGBLOOM JASON PAUL
President
2026-02-12
26,843 shares
DAVIS LESLIE E
Officer
2026-02-12
1,804 shares
SICHLING CRAIG M
Officer
2026-02-12
5,863 shares
HAMILL ANTHONY
Chief Operating Officer
2026-02-12
6,710 shares
SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-03
28,332 shares
·
$2,477,206
SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-15
69,512 shares
·
$6,391,645
SOUTHERN WILLIAM BRADLEY
Chief Executive Officer
2025-12-16
43,832 shares
·
$3,779,369
MACADAM STEPHEN E
Director
2025-11-07
3,200 shares
·
$249,792
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
DEF 14A
10-K
LPX filed its 10-K on February 17, 2026, which includes comprehensive disclosures regarding its business operations, financial condition, and market risks. While specific financial metrics were not provided in the excerpts, the filing contains dedicated sections for risk factors, cybersecurity, and quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.
8-K
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
12 analysts
BMO Capital
2026-04-20
Market Perform
Market Perform
Barclays
2026-04-08
Overweight
Overweight
DA Davidson
2026-02-23
Buy
Buy
RBC Capital
2026-02-18
Outperform
Outperform
DA Davidson
2026-01-28
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2026-01-15
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2026-01-06
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2025-12-08
Overweight
DA Davidson
2025-11-20
Buy
Buy
RBC Capital
2025-11-06
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning LPX from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.