MTN
BEARISH
$122.16
Live
Vail Resorts, Inc. · NYSE
Target $155.42
(+27.2%)
$118.51
52W Range
$175.51
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$4.35B
P/E
19.45
ROE
34.6%
Profit margin
7.9%
Debt/Equity
4.93
Dividend yield
7.27%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests stable operational health, the company is fundamentally overvalued and financially strained. The current price of $122.16 trades at a massive premium compared to the Graham Number ($34.59) and Intrinsic Value ($43.96). This valuation is unsupported by negative revenue (-4.70%) and earnings growth (-10.10%), coupled with an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 141.40% and high leverage (Debt/Equity 4.93).
Key Strengths
Strong Return on Equity (ROE) of 34.55%
Robust Operating Margin of 31.96%
High Dividend Yield of 7.27%
Stable Piotroski F-Score (6/9)
Positive Analyst Target Price ($155.42) suggesting potential upside
Key Risks
Unsustainable Dividend Payout Ratio (141.40%)
Severe overvaluation relative to Graham and Intrinsic values
Negative YoY Revenue and Earnings growth
Poor liquidity with a Current Ratio of 0.62 and Quick Ratio of 0.41
High financial leverage with Debt/Equity at 4.93
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$41.2
-66.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
27
Weak
20
25
30
45
15
AI Verdict
High-Risk Value Trap
Key drivers: Negative growth trends, Extreme valuation gap, Debt-heavy balance sheet, Dividend instability
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E ratio (19.45) is lower than sector average
Watchpoints
- Price/Book (14.42) is extremely high
- Current price is ~3.5x the Graham Number
- PEG ratio (3.33) indicates overvaluation relative to growth
Future
25/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Analyst target price suggests recovery
Watchpoints
- Negative YoY Revenue Growth (-4.70%)
- Negative YoY Earnings Growth (-10.10%)
- 0/4 earnings beats in the last year
Past
30/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical ability to generate high ROE
Watchpoints
- 5-Year price change of -54.2%
- Consistent earnings misses in recent quarters
Health
45/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stability
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity of 4.93 is significantly above sector average (1.60)
- Current Ratio (0.62) indicates potential short-term liquidity issues
Dividend
15/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- High nominal yield (7.27%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 141.40% is fundamentally unsustainable
- Dividends are being paid out of capital or debt rather than earnings
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$122.16
Analyst Target
$155.42
Upside/Downside
+27.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MTN and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-29
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
Primary
|
-54.2% | -41.7% | -8.5% | -14.8% | -1.5% | -6.1% |
|
FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc.
Peer
|
+13.2% | +122.4% | +47.1% | -8.4% | +16.6% | +0.1% |
|
MMYT
MakeMyTrip Limited
Peer
|
+71.3% | +85.7% | -54.5% | -51.1% | -2.5% | +16.6% |
|
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
Peer
|
-31.9% | -17.8% | -5.9% | -23.1% | +4.5% | -0.6% |
|
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
Peer
|
+33.5% | +12.6% | +2.7% | +1.3% | +11.6% | -2.5% |
MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-54.2%
3Y
-41.7%
1Y
-8.5%
6M
-14.8%
1M
-1.5%
1W
-6.1%
FTD
Frontdoor, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+13.2%
3Y
+122.4%
1Y
+47.1%
6M
-8.4%
1M
+16.6%
1W
+0.1%
MMY
MakeMyTrip Limited
Peer
5Y
+71.3%
3Y
+85.7%
1Y
-54.5%
6M
-51.1%
1M
-2.5%
1W
+16.6%
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-31.9%
3Y
-17.8%
1Y
-5.9%
6M
-23.1%
1M
+4.5%
1W
-0.6%
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
Peer
5Y
+33.5%
3Y
+12.6%
1Y
+2.7%
6M
+1.3%
1M
+11.6%
1W
-2.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
19.45
Forward P/E
17.49
PEG Ratio
3.33
P/B Ratio
14.42
P/S Ratio
1.49
EV/Revenue
2.56
EV/EBITDA
9.3
Market Cap
$4.35B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.95%
Operating Margin
31.96%
Gross Margin
44.19%
ROE
34.55%
ROA
5.7%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-4.7%
Earnings Growth
-10.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-4.69%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-14.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
4.93
High debt
Current Ratio
0.62
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.41
Poor
Cash/Share
$10.8
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026
Revenue
$1.1B
Gross Margin
50.0%
Op. Margin
32.0%
Net Margin
19.4%
Total Assets
$5.6B
Liabilities
$5.0B
Equity
$0.3B
Debt/Equity
16.42x
Operating CF
$0.3B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.2B
FCF Yield
71%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-06-04
$N/A
2026-03-09
$5.87
-5.0% surprise
2025-12-10
$-5.2
-0.6% surprise
2025-09-29
$-5.08
-7.7% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing MTN against 432 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(26 bullish, 157 neutral, 249 bearish)
P/E Ratio
19.45
This Stock
vs
32.3
Sector Avg
-39.8%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
34.55%
This Stock
vs
-49.64%
Sector Avg
-169.6%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.95%
This Stock
vs
-5.61%
Sector Avg
-241.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
4.93
This Stock
vs
1.61
Sector Avg
+206.3%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
-4.7%
This Stock
vs
26.41%
Sector Avg
-117.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.62
This Stock
vs
2.5
Sector Avg
-75.2%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $4.35B | 19.45 | 34.6% | 7.9% | $122.16 | |
|
FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $4.25B | 17.72 | 106.0% | 12.2% | $60.59 | Compare |
|
MMYT
MakeMyTrip Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $4.25B | 85.81 | 9.6% | 5.5% | $44.62 | Compare |
|
MAT
Mattel, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.47B | 11.83 | 17.7% | 7.4% | $14.79 | Compare |
|
MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $4.48B | 12.23 | 7.5% | 6.9% | $67.02 | Compare |
MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$4.4B
P/E
19.5
ROE
34.6%
Price
$122.16
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | KORCH ANGELA A | Chief Financial Officer | Purchase | 190 | $25,052 |
| 2026-03-16 | KATZ ROBERT A | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 37,500 | $4,942,875 |
| 2026-01-30 | KORCH ANGELA A | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 881 | - |
KORCH ANGELA A
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-16
190 shares
·
$25,052
KATZ ROBERT A
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-16
37,500 shares
·
$4,942,875
KORCH ANGELA A
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-30
881 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K
10-Q
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
12 analysts
Truist Securities
2026-04-23
Buy
Buy
UBS
2026-04-17
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2026-03-12
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2026-03-11
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2026-03-10
Neutral
Neutral
Mizuho
2026-03-10
Outperform
Outperform
Barclays
2026-03-10
Underweight
Underweight
Stifel
2026-03-10
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2026-03-10
Buy
Buy
Jefferies
2026-01-13
Hold
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MTN from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.