NHI
BEARISH
$76.91
Live
National Health Investors, Inc. · NYSE
Target $88.75
(+15.4%)
$68.8
52W Range
$91.38
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$3.73B
P/E
25.47
ROE
9.6%
Profit margin
37.5%
Debt/Equity
0.98
Dividend yield
4.76%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
NHI exhibits a precarious fundamental profile, anchored by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, which indicates only marginal stability. The stock is trading at a severe premium to both its Graham Number ($46.26) and its growth-based Intrinsic Value ($21.14), suggesting significant overvaluation. Most concerning is the dividend payout ratio of 120.53%, indicating that the current dividend is unsustainable and not covered by earnings. With negative YoY revenue and earnings growth and a 0/100 technical trend, the data suggests a high risk of price correction.
Key Strengths
Strong operating margins (61.34%)
High gross margins (81.04%)
Manageable Debt/Equity ratio (0.98) compared to sector average
Positive long-term price appreciation (3Y change +83.4%)
Strong analyst support with a target price of $88.75
Key Risks
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (120.53%)
Severe earnings contraction (YoY Earnings Growth -43.00%)
Poor liquidity indicated by a Current Ratio of 0.54
Significant gap between current price ($76.91) and intrinsic value ($21.14)
Bearish technical trend (0/100)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$42.5
-44.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
33
Weak
25
20
65
40
15
AI Verdict
Overvalued & Unstable
Key drivers: Dividend payout > 100%, Price >> Graham Number, Negative YoY growth, Low current ratio
Confidence
90%
Value
25/100
Ref P/E 25.47, PEG 4.76, Graham Number $46.26
Positives
- P/E is lower than the sector average of 40.14
Watchpoints
- Price is 66% above Graham Number
- PEG ratio of 4.76 indicates extreme overvaluation relative to growth
Future
20/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Positive Q/Q revenue growth (23.40%)
Watchpoints
- Negative YoY revenue growth (-2.60%)
- Severe YoY earnings decline (-43.00%)
Past
65/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Strong 3-year and 5-year price performance
- Consistent history of beating estimates in recent quarters
Watchpoints
- High volatility in quarterly EPS (e.g., 2023-02-21 drop)
Health
40/100
Ref Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Positives
- Debt/Equity is below sector average
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is barely stable
- Current ratio (0.54) and Quick ratio (0.50) indicate liquidity risk
Dividend
15/100
Ref Yield 4.76%, Payout 120.53%
Positives
- Attractive yield of 4.76%
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 120.53% is a critical red flag for dividend sustainability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$76.91
Analyst Target
$88.75
Upside/Downside
+15.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NHI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-30
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NHI
National Health Investors, Inc.
Primary
|
+38.8% | +83.4% | +6.6% | +4.6% | -4.9% | -0.9% |
|
CDP
COPT Defense Properties
Peer
|
+41.8% | +60.2% | +25.5% | +17.1% | +4.8% | -0.0% |
|
COLD
Americold Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-60.6% | -49.4% | -31.7% | -2.8% | +15.8% | +0.2% |
|
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
Peer
|
+35.3% | +30.8% | +25.2% | +20.6% | +7.7% | -1.0% |
|
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
-37.7% | -13.5% | -6.2% | -22.3% | +2.4% | -5.4% |
NHI
National Health Investors, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+38.8%
3Y
+83.4%
1Y
+6.6%
6M
+4.6%
1M
-4.9%
1W
-0.9%
CDP
COPT Defense Properties
Peer
5Y
+41.8%
3Y
+60.2%
1Y
+25.5%
6M
+17.1%
1M
+4.8%
1W
-0.0%
COL
Americold Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-60.6%
3Y
-49.4%
1Y
-31.7%
6M
-2.8%
1M
+15.8%
1W
+0.2%
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+35.3%
3Y
+30.8%
1Y
+25.2%
6M
+20.6%
1M
+7.7%
1W
-1.0%
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
Peer
5Y
-37.7%
3Y
-13.5%
1Y
-6.2%
6M
-22.3%
1M
+2.4%
1W
-5.4%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
25.47
Forward P/E
21.19
PEG Ratio
4.76
P/B Ratio
2.44
P/S Ratio
9.83
EV/Revenue
13.56
EV/EBITDA
18.59
Market Cap
$3.73B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
37.48%
Operating Margin
61.34%
Gross Margin
81.04%
ROE
9.63%
ROA
4.52%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-2.6%
Earnings Growth
-43.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+23.4%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-42.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.98
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.54
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.5
Poor
Cash/Share
$2.34
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.1B
Gross Margin
97.6%
Op. Margin
47.5%
Net Margin
36.1%
Total Assets
$2.8B
Liabilities
$1.3B
Equity
$1.5B
Debt/Equity
0.83x
Operating CF
$0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
100%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-04
$N/A
2026-02-26
$0.76
-5.2% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.69
+14.0% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.79
+4.5% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing NHI against 204 companies in the Real Estate sector
(10 bullish, 42 neutral, 152 bearish)
P/E Ratio
25.47
This Stock
vs
40.56
Sector Avg
-37.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.63%
This Stock
vs
-27.72%
Sector Avg
-134.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
37.48%
This Stock
vs
11.81%
Sector Avg
+217.3%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.98
This Stock
vs
2.39
Sector Avg
-59.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-2.6%
This Stock
vs
13794.44%
Sector Avg
-100.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.54
This Stock
vs
8.6
Sector Avg
-93.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NHI
National Health Investors, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.73B | 25.47 | 9.6% | 37.5% | $76.91 | |
|
CDP
COPT Defense Properties
|
NEUTRAL | $3.71B | 23.42 | -% | 20.0% | $32.09 | Compare |
|
COLD
Americold Realty Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.68B | - | -3.7% | -4.4% | $12.83 | Compare |
|
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.66B | 39.43 | 3.0% | 20.0% | $18.53 | Compare |
|
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.8B | 28.86 | 3.7% | 8.4% | $63.79 | Compare |
NHI
National Health...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$3.7B
P/E
25.5
ROE
9.6%
Price
$76.91
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | MENDELSOHN D ERIC | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 14,409 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | PASCOE KEVIN CARLTON | Chief Investment Officer | Stock Award | 5,072 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | PASCOE KEVIN CARLTON | Chief Investment Officer | Stock Award | 4,726 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | SPAID JOHN L | Officer | Stock Award | 5,072 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | SPAID JOHN L | Officer | Option Exercise | 15,000 | $1,100,100 |
| 2026-03-03 | TRAVIS DAVID L | Officer | Stock Award | 3,458 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | TODD CANDICE W. | Director | Stock Award | 1,268 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | DONOHUE LILLY | Director | Stock Award | 1,268 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | MCCABE ROBERT A. JR. | Director | Stock Award | 1,268 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | COLDEN TRACY M J | Director | Stock Award | 1,268 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | CHAPIN ROBERT JR. | Director | Stock Award | 1,268 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | JOBE JAMES R | Director | Stock Award | 1,268 | - |
| 2026-02-23 | MENDELSOHN D ERIC | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 13,334 | $770,172 |
| 2026-02-23 | PASCOE KEVIN CARLTON | Chief Investment Officer | Option Exercise | 8,500 | $490,960 |
| 2026-02-23 | SPAID JOHN L | Officer | Option Exercise | 8,500 | $490,960 |
MENDELSOHN D ERIC
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-03
14,409 shares
PASCOE KEVIN CARLTON
Chief Investment Officer
2026-03-03
5,072 shares
PASCOE KEVIN CARLTON
Chief Investment Officer
2026-03-03
4,726 shares
SPAID JOHN L
Officer
2026-03-03
5,072 shares
SPAID JOHN L
Officer
2026-03-03
15,000 shares
·
$1,100,100
TRAVIS DAVID L
Officer
2026-03-03
3,458 shares
TODD CANDICE W.
Director
2026-03-03
1,268 shares
DONOHUE LILLY
Director
2026-03-03
1,268 shares
MCCABE ROBERT A. JR.
Director
2026-03-03
1,268 shares
COLDEN TRACY M J
Director
2026-03-03
1,268 shares
CHAPIN ROBERT JR.
Director
2026-03-03
1,268 shares
JOBE JAMES R
Director
2026-03-03
1,268 shares
MENDELSOHN D ERIC
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-23
13,334 shares
·
$770,172
PASCOE KEVIN CARLTON
Chief Investment Officer
2026-02-23
8,500 shares
·
$490,960
SPAID JOHN L
Officer
2026-02-23
8,500 shares
·
$490,960
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
8 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-04-22
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-04-22
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2026-04-22
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-03-27
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Truist Securities
2026-03-12
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2025-12-16
Buy
Buy
Keybanc
2025-12-04
Overweight
Overweight
Wells Fargo
2025-11-25
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning NHI from our newsroom.
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