OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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OXY Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Energy
Oil & Gas E&P
Current Price
Live
$42.7
Analyst Target
$49.5
+15.9%
Upside
52W High
$52.58
52W Low
$34.78
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$42.07B
P/E
31.4
ROE
6.0%
Profit margin
8.2%
Debt/Equity
0.62
Dividend yield
2.22%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed financial profile for OXY, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial health, and no available Altman Z-Score to assess distress risk. The stock trades above its Graham Number of $29.48 at a current price of $42.70, suggesting overvaluation on a defensive basis, while profitability margins remain solid but growth metrics are negative year-over-year. Despite strong recent earnings surprises and insider sentiment at 60/100, declining revenue and earnings, coupled with a bearish technical trend, offset bullish dividend and analyst target signals. Relative to peers, OXY exhibits higher valuation multiples and weaker growth, though its debt/equity ratio is within sector average.
Key Strengths
Solid gross margin of 63.58% indicates strong pricing power and cost control at production level
Dividend yield of 2.22% is above sector average and supported by a manageable 69.12% payout ratio
Recent quarterly earnings have consistently beaten estimates, with an average surprise of 21.87% over the last four quarters
Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62 is below peer MPC and in line with sector average, suggesting moderate leverage risk
Analyst target price of $49.50 implies 15.9% upside potential, indicating underlying confidence in recovery
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, particularly concerning profitability and leverage trends
Revenue and earnings are declining YoY (-7.70% and -33.40% respectively), signaling operational headwinds
ROE of 5.96% is significantly below sector average of 13.27%, reflecting poor capital efficiency
Current ratio of 0.94 and quick ratio of 0.64 suggest potential liquidity pressure in the short term
Elevated P/E of 31.40 vs sector average of 19.76 implies overvaluation amid declining earnings
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$34.5
-19.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
52
Moderate
42
38
64
45
70
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside potential if earnings stabilize
Key drivers: Mixed financial health metrics, Overvalued relative to Graham framework, Strong recent earnings beats, Bearish technical trend, Stable dividend profile
Confidence
75%
Value
42/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Sales of 1.58 is reasonable for E&P firm
- Below peer PSX on P/E despite higher growth
Watchpoints
- P/E of 31.40 significantly above sector average of 19.76
- Current price 44.7% above Graham Number of $29.48
- No PEG ratio due to negative growth
Future
38/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Q/Q EPS growth of +64.1% shows recent improvement
- Analyst target implies positive forward expectations
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth YoY at -7.70%
- Earnings growth YoY at -33.40%
- No forward PEG available due to unreliable growth trajectory
Past
64/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 16 out of last 25 quarters beat or met estimates
- Strong earnings recovery from 2020 losses to profitability in 2022–2024
- Historical 5Y return of +96.4% shows long-term upside
Watchpoints
- Last 3Y and 1Y returns are negative (-30.7%, -16.6%)
- Earnings peaked in 2022 and have trended down since
Health
45/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.62 is within acceptable range
- Positive ROIC implied by positive ROE and leverage
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current ratio below 1.0 (0.94) and quick ratio of 0.64 signal liquidity risk
- No Altman Z-Score available for distress assessment
Dividend
70/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.22% is attractive in current rate environment
- Payout ratio of 69.12% is sustainable given cash flow stability
- Dividend Strength score of 50/100 suggests moderate reliability
Watchpoints
- No data on 5-year average yield to assess consistency
- Dividend coverage could weaken if earnings decline further
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$42.7
Analyst Target
$49.5
Upside/Downside
+15.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for OXY and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Primary
|
+96.4% | -30.7% | -16.6% | -1.0% | +5.1% | -0.4% |
|
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
Peer
|
+211.3% | +17.7% | -13.1% | +8.5% | -1.8% | +2.6% |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Peer
|
+334.3% | +54.0% | +18.4% | +1.9% | +0.7% | -0.3% |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
Peer
|
+124.8% | +50.4% | +19.9% | +11.9% | +4.8% | -2.7% |
|
HAL
Halliburton Company
Peer
|
+73.5% | -18.0% | +14.6% | +55.6% | +17.4% | -0.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
31.4
Forward P/E
29.92
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.5
P/S Ratio
1.58
EV/Revenue
2.69
EV/EBITDA
5.64
Market Cap
$42.07B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.17%
Operating Margin
17.72%
Gross Margin
63.58%
ROE
5.96%
ROA
3.3%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-7.7%
Earnings Growth
-33.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-25.5%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.62
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.94
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.64
Poor
Cash/Share
$2.19
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-18
$N/A
2025-11-10
$0.64
+26.8% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.39
+24.8% surprise
2025-05-07
$0.87
+14.0% surprise
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing OXY against 26 companies in the Energy sector
(0 bullish, 20 neutral, 6 bearish)
P/E Ratio
31.4
This Stock
vs
23.13
Sector Avg
+35.8%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
5.96%
This Stock
vs
7.95%
Sector Avg
-25.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
8.17%
This Stock
vs
8.82%
Sector Avg
-7.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.62
This Stock
vs
0.68
Sector Avg
-7.9%
(Lower)
Revenue Growth
-7.7%
This Stock
vs
4.1%
Sector Avg
-288.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.94
This Stock
vs
1.18
Sector Avg
-21.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $42.07B | 31.4 | 6.0% | 8.2% | $42.7 | |
|
FANG
Diamondback Energy, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $43.79B | 10.62 | 10.9% | 28.7% | $151.28 | |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $53.4B | 18.7 | 18.9% | 2.2% | $175.63 | |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
|
NEUTRAL | $55.88B | 37.27 | 5.6% | 1.1% | $138.28 | |
|
HAL
Halliburton Company
|
NEUTRAL | $27.77B | 21.57 | 12.8% | 5.9% | $32.57 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | KLESSE WILLIAM ROBERT | Director | Purchase | 5,000 | $194,900 |
| 2025-10-01 | JACKSON RICHARD A. | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 31,434 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
24 analysts
UBS
2025-12-12
Neutral
Neutral
B of A Securities
2025-12-11
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-12-08
Neutral
Underweight
Citigroup
2025-11-19
Neutral
Neutral
Piper Sandler
2025-11-18
Neutral
Neutral
Susquehanna
2025-11-13
Positive
Positive
Wells Fargo
2025-11-12
Underweight
Underweight
Mizuho
2025-11-11
Outperform
Outperform
Piper Sandler
2025-10-21
Neutral
Neutral
Susquehanna
2025-10-20
Positive
Positive
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning OXY from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.