PKG
BEARISH
$218.06
Live
Packaging Corporation of America · NYSE
Target $231.2
(+6.0%)
$178.3
52W Range
$249.51
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated May 02, 2026
Market cap
$19.45B
P/E
26.53
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
8.0%
Debt/Equity
0.95
Dividend yield
2.29%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
PKG exhibits severe fundamental weakness as evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, indicating deteriorating financial health. The stock is trading at a massive premium, with a current price of $218.06 far exceeding both the Graham Number ($97.96) and the Intrinsic Value ($57.54). While revenue growth remains positive at 10.6%, earnings are contracting significantly (-15.5% YoY), suggesting margin compression. Despite bullish analyst targets, the combination of a bearish technical trend (0/100) and poor deterministic health scores suggests a high risk of correction.
Key Strengths
Consistent positive revenue growth (10.6% YoY)
Strong long-term price appreciation (5Y Change +69.1%)
Manageable Debt/Equity ratio of 0.95
Positive analyst consensus with a target price of $231.20
Stable dividend payout with a 2.29% yield
Key Risks
Critical financial health deterioration (Piotroski F-Score 2/9)
Significant earnings contraction (-15.5% YoY)
Extreme overvaluation relative to Graham and Intrinsic values
Bearish technical trend (0/100 score)
Exposure to inflation and general cost increases as noted in 10-K
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$105.5
-51.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
42
Moderate
20
45
70
15
60
AI Verdict
Overvalued & Weakening
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score 2/9, Price/Graham Number gap, Negative Earnings Growth
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100
Ref P/E 26.53, PEG 1.61, Graham Number $97.96
Positives
- Forward P/E (17.95) is lower than trailing P/E
Watchpoints
- Price is 2.2x the Graham Number
- Price is 3.7x the Intrinsic Value
- High Price/Book ratio of 4.20
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth remains double-digit (10.6%)
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is sharply negative (-15.5%)
- Q/Q earnings growth is also negative (-16.1%)
Past
70/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Strong 3Y and 5Y price performance
- Consistent history of earnings beats over 25 quarters
Watchpoints
- Recent trend of missing estimates (1/4 last 4 quarters)
Health
15/100
Ref Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity below sector average
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield 2.29%, Payout 60.75%
Positives
- Consistent dividend rate of $5.00
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio (60.75%) is moderately high given earnings decline
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$218.06
Analyst Target
$231.2
Upside/Downside
+6.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for PKG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-05-01
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
Primary
|
+69.1% | +77.1% | +21.8% | +12.7% | +3.2% | +2.4% |
|
FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc
Peer
|
-48.1% | -43.1% | -51.5% | -54.3% | +7.9% | +1.4% |
|
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Peer
|
+18.0% | +32.7% | +2.1% | +6.6% | +3.4% | -2.7% |
|
LI
Li Auto Inc.
Peer
|
-29.4% | -28.5% | -29.2% | -29.6% | +1.5% | +0.5% |
|
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Peer
|
-85.1% | -2.8% | +20.9% | +2.5% | +0.3% | -6.5% |
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
Primary
5Y
+69.1%
3Y
+77.1%
1Y
+21.8%
6M
+12.7%
1M
+3.2%
1W
+2.4%
FLU
Flutter Entertainment plc
Peer
5Y
-48.1%
3Y
-43.1%
1Y
-51.5%
6M
-54.3%
1M
+7.9%
1W
+1.4%
BUR
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+18.0%
3Y
+32.7%
1Y
+2.1%
6M
+6.6%
1M
+3.4%
1W
-2.7%
LI
Li Auto Inc.
Peer
5Y
-29.4%
3Y
-28.5%
1Y
-29.2%
6M
-29.6%
1M
+1.5%
1W
+0.5%
RIV
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-85.1%
3Y
-2.8%
1Y
+20.9%
6M
+2.5%
1M
+0.3%
1W
-6.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
26.53
Forward P/E
17.95
PEG Ratio
1.61
P/B Ratio
4.2
P/S Ratio
2.11
EV/Revenue
2.5
EV/EBITDA
12.19
Market Cap
$19.45B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.04%
Operating Margin
10.93%
Gross Margin
21.24%
ROE
N/A
ROA
N/A
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+10.6%
Earnings Growth
-15.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+10.13%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-16.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.95
Moderate
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$6.78
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-07-22
$N/A
2026-04-22
$2.4
+12.5% surprise
2026-01-27
$2.32
-3.9% surprise
2025-10-22
$2.73
-3.1% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing PKG against 457 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(30 bullish, 163 neutral, 264 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.53
This Stock
vs
31.95
Sector Avg
-17.0%
(Discount)
Profit Margin
8.04%
This Stock
vs
-5.41%
Sector Avg
-248.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.95
This Stock
vs
1.77
Sector Avg
-46.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
10.6%
This Stock
vs
25.46%
Sector Avg
-58.4%
(Slower)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
|
BEARISH | $19.45B | 26.53 | -% | 8.0% | $218.06 | |
|
FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc
|
BEARISH | $19.4B | - | -3.9% | -1.9% | $111.57 | Compare |
|
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $18.75B | 34.25 | 41.9% | 5.0% | $297.96 | Compare |
|
LI
Li Auto Inc.
|
BEARISH | $18.72B | 118.87 | 1.6% | 1.0% | $17.83 | Compare |
|
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $18.68B | - | -65.0% | -67.7% | $15.05 | Compare |
PKG
Packaging...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$19.5B
P/E
26.5
ROE
-%
Price
$218.06
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | PFLEDERER KENT A | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 6,024 | - |
| 2026-03-27 | KOWLZAN MARK W | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 46,302 | - |
| 2026-03-27 | HASSFURTHER THOMAS A | President | Stock Award | 32,057 | - |
| 2026-03-27 | CARTER CHARLES J | Officer | Stock Award | 8,916 | - |
| 2026-03-27 | SHIRLEY DONALD R. | Officer | Stock Award | 6,732 | - |
| 2026-03-27 | OLIVIER DARLA J | Officer | Stock Award | 2,433 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | PFLEDERER KENT A | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 3,185 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | KOWLZAN MARK W | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 18,113 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | HASSFURTHER THOMAS A | President | Stock Award | 12,492 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | CARTER CHARLES J | Officer | Stock Award | 4,715 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | SHIRLEY DONALD R. | Officer | Stock Award | 3,560 | - |
| 2026-03-06 | OLIVIER DARLA J | Officer | Stock Award | 1,286 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | PFLEDERER KENT A | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,774 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | KOWLZAN MARK W | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 16,992 | - |
| 2026-02-25 | HASSFURTHER THOMAS A | President | Stock Award | 11,719 | - |
PFLEDERER KENT A
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-27
6,024 shares
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-27
46,302 shares
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
2026-03-27
32,057 shares
CARTER CHARLES J
Officer
2026-03-27
8,916 shares
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
2026-03-27
6,732 shares
OLIVIER DARLA J
Officer
2026-03-27
2,433 shares
PFLEDERER KENT A
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-06
3,185 shares
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-06
18,113 shares
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
2026-03-06
12,492 shares
CARTER CHARLES J
Officer
2026-03-06
4,715 shares
SHIRLEY DONALD R.
Officer
2026-03-06
3,560 shares
OLIVIER DARLA J
Officer
2026-03-06
1,286 shares
PFLEDERER KENT A
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-25
2,774 shares
KOWLZAN MARK W
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-25
16,992 shares
HASSFURTHER THOMAS A
President
2026-02-25
11,719 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
8-K
DEF 14A
8-K
10-K
8-K
10-Q
PKG generated $1,126 million in net cash from financing activities during the first nine months of 2025, primarily to fund the Greif Acquisition through $1.6 billion in new credit facilities and $500 million in 5.20% senior notes. The company maintained consistent dividend payments of $337 million and conducted no share repurchases during the period. While specific risk factors were not detailed in the provided excerpt, the company has significantly increased its debt obligations to finance its strategic acquisition.
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
10 analysts
UBS
2026-04-28
Neutral
Neutral
Truist Securities
2026-04-27
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-04-24
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2026-04-21
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2026-04-15
Buy
Buy
Citigroup
2026-04-14
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2026-04-10
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2026-04-07
Overweight
Overweight
Deutsche Bank
2026-04-01
Sell
Hold
Citigroup
2026-01-29
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning PKG from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.