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UPS

NEUTRAL
$108.24 Live
United Parcel Service, Inc. · NYSE
Target $112.56 (+4.0%)
$82.0 52W Range $122.41

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$91.97B
P/E
16.5
ROE
33.8%
Profit margin
6.3%
Debt/Equity
1.76
Dividend yield
6.06%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
UPS exhibits strong operational health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, yet it faces significant valuation and sustainability headwinds. The stock is currently trading at a premium ($108.24) relative to both its Graham Number ($53.11) and Intrinsic Value ($91.18). While the 6.06% dividend yield is attractive, the 100% payout ratio is a critical red flag indicating a lack of cushion for earnings volatility. Negative revenue growth (-3.20%) suggests a struggle for organic expansion, though efficiency gains have kept earnings slightly positive.

Key Strengths

Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9) indicating robust financial health
High Return on Equity (ROE) of 33.77%
Attractive dividend yield of 6.06%
Consistent history of beating earnings estimates over the last 25 quarters
Reasonable Forward P/E (13.68) compared to broader industrial averages

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 100%
Negative year-over-year revenue growth (-3.20%)
Trading significantly above defensive fair value (Graham Number)
Bearish technical trend and negative insider sentiment
Exposure to collective bargaining agreement risks as noted in 10-K
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$94.5
-12.7% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
52
Moderate
Value
40
Future
45
Past
60
Health
85
Dividend
30
AI Verdict
Stable but Overvalued
Key drivers: Strong balance sheet health, Declining revenue growth, Unsustainable payout ratio, Premium valuation
Confidence
90%
Value
40/100

Ref P/E 16.50, Graham Number $53.11

Positives
  • P/E is lower than sector average
Watchpoints
  • Price is 103% above Graham Number
  • Price is 18% above Intrinsic Value
Future
45/100

Ref Growth rates and Technical Trend

Positives
  • Positive earnings growth (4.60%)
Watchpoints
  • Negative Revenue Growth (-3.20%)
  • Bearish technical trend (0/100)
Past
60/100

Ref Historical price changes and Earnings track record

Positives
  • Strong 1Y recovery (+19.1%)
  • Consistent EPS beat record
Watchpoints
  • Poor 5Y performance (-32.4%)
Health
85/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
  • Healthy Current Ratio (1.22)
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity of 1.76 is moderate to high
Dividend
30/100

Ref Yield 6.06%, Payout 100%

Positives
  • High yield (6.06%)
Watchpoints
  • 100% Payout ratio leaves no room for error or growth reinvestment

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$108.24
Analyst Target
$112.56
Upside/Downside
+4.0%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for UPS and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-27
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-32.4%
3Y
-29.5%
1Y
+19.1%
6M
+25.1%
1M
+14.2%
1W
+1.1%
TT
Trane Technologies plc
Peer
5Y
+193.4%
3Y
+145.3%
1Y
+2.9%
6M
-2.1%
1M
-1.0%
1W
-3.8%
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Peer
5Y
+106.1%
3Y
+46.3%
1Y
+25.6%
6M
+9.9%
1M
-7.1%
1W
-3.6%
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc.
Peer
5Y
+663.2%
3Y
+450.7%
1Y
+77.7%
6M
+19.9%
1M
+6.1%
1W
-5.5%
FDX
FedEx Corporation
Peer
5Y
+40.1%
3Y
+67.7%
1Y
+52.2%
6M
+51.8%
1M
-6.6%
1W
+0.8%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
16.5
Forward P/E
13.68
PEG Ratio
1.64
P/B Ratio
5.66
P/S Ratio
1.04
EV/Revenue
1.29
EV/EBITDA
9.39
Market Cap
$91.97B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 6.29%
Operating Margin 10.75%
Gross Margin 22.6%
ROE 33.77%
ROA 7.44%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -3.2%
Earnings Growth +4.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth -3.25%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +4.1%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
1.76
High debt
Current Ratio
1.22
Good
Quick Ratio
1.11
Good
Cash/Share
$6.93

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$24.5B
Gross Margin
20.8%
Op. Margin
10.5%
Net Margin
7.3%
Total Assets
$73.1B
Liabilities
$56.8B
Equity
$16.2B
Debt/Equity
3.50x
Operating CF
$3.3B
CapEx
$-0.7B
Free Cash Flow
$2.6B
FCF Yield
78%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-28
$N/A
2026-01-27
$2.38
+8.1% surprise
2025-10-28
$1.74
+33.9% surprise
2025-07-29
$1.55
-1.0% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing UPS against 469 companies in the Industrials sector (39 bullish, 174 neutral, 256 bearish)
P/E Ratio
16.5
This Stock
vs
98.24
Sector Avg
-83.2% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
33.77%
This Stock
vs
-19.38%
Sector Avg
-274.2% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
6.29%
This Stock
vs
6.65%
Sector Avg
-5.5% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.76
This Stock
vs
2.63
Sector Avg
-33.2% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-3.2%
This Stock
vs
71.29%
Sector Avg
-104.5% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.22
This Stock
vs
3.09
Sector Avg
-60.6% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

BROTHERS NORMAN MICHAEL JR.
Officer
Sell
2026-01-28
25,014 shares · $2,655,195
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT
2026-03-19

UPS filed a definitive proxy statement on March 19, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the upcoming annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2026-02-17

UPS's 10-K filing details financial operations across its U.S. Domestic, International, and Supply Chain Solutions segments, focusing on consolidated operating expenses and liquidity. Key investor risks include those detailed in the Risk Factors section and the impact of collective bargaining agreements on operations.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-06

UPS likely filed this 8-K to report its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-27

UPS filed an 8-K on January 27, 2026, likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-05

UPS submitted its quarterly 10-Q filing on November 5, 2025. The filing includes a dedicated section on risk factors under Item 1A, although specific financial highlights were not provided in the available excerpt.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-28

UPS likely filed this 8-K to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-09-18
10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-06

UPS submitted its quarterly 10-Q filing on August 6, 2025. While specific financial metrics were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes detailed risk disclosures under Item 1A.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-29

UPS reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025.

8-K
8-K - APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS JUNE 2, 2025
2025-06-02

UPS announced the appointment of certain officers on June 2, 2025.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-05-20
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-05-14
8-K
FORM 8-K - SHAREOWNERS MEETING
2025-05-12
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-07
8-K
8-K
2025-04-29
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
27 analysts
Citigroup
2026-04-07
Maintains
Buy Buy
JP Morgan
2026-01-28
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Jefferies
2026-01-28
Maintains
Buy Buy
Oppenheimer
2026-01-28
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Citigroup
2026-01-28
Maintains
Buy Buy
UBS
2026-01-28
Maintains
Buy Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-01-28
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Stephens & Co.
2026-01-28
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Stifel
2026-01-28
Maintains
Buy Buy
Deutsche Bank
2026-01-28
Maintains
Hold Hold

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning UPS from our newsroom.

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