OBE

BEARISH

$14.28 Live

Obsidian Energy Ltd. · AMEX

Target $6.81 (-52.3%)

$3.88 52W Range $14.38

OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH

Console Chart News

OBE Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

AMEX • Energy • Oil & Gas E&P

Current Price Live

$14.28

Analyst Target

$6.81

-52.3% Downside

52W High

$14.38

52W Low

$3.88

Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated May 01, 2026

Market cap

$964.92M

P/E

39.67

ROE

2.5%

Profit margin

6.5%

Debt/Equity

0.14

Dividend yield

N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence

85%

Obsidian Energy (OBE) presents a stark divergence between parabolic price action and deteriorating fundamentals. While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable health, the company is facing severe revenue contraction (-39.2% YoY) and a critical liquidity crunch with a current ratio of 0.54. The stock is trading at $14.28, significantly exceeding both its Graham Number ($11.07) and its growth-based intrinsic value ($2.52), while analysts suggest a target price of $6.81, implying a potential 50%+ correction.

Key Strengths

Very low Debt/Equity ratio (0.14) compared to sector average

Price-to-Book ratio (0.94) suggests the stock is trading near book value

Exceptional short-term price momentum (1Y Change +239.2%)

Low Forward P/E (8.68) suggests potential earnings recovery expectations

Strong gross margins (55.57%)

Key Risks

Severe revenue decline (-39.2% YoY and -41.57% Q/Q)

Poor liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 0.54 and Quick Ratio of 0.34

Significant overvaluation relative to intrinsic value ($2.52) and analyst targets ($6.81)

Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (1/4 beats in last 4 quarters)

Negative operating margin (-0.70%) indicating inefficiency in core operations

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$7.25

-49.2% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall

Weak

Value

Future

Past

Health

Dividend

AI Verdict

Overextended Speculative

Key drivers: Price/Intrinsic Value gap, Revenue collapse, Liquidity risk, Momentum vs Fundamentals divergence

Confidence

90%

Value

40/100

Trading at a premium to defensive fair value ($11.07) and a massive premium to intrinsic value ($2.52).

Positives

P/B < 1.0
Low Forward P/E

Watchpoints

Price > Graham Number
Price >> Intrinsic Value

Future

20/100

Growth metrics are in a steep decline across both YoY and Q/Q timeframes.

Positives

Forward P/E suggests expected earnings

Watchpoints

Revenue growth -39.2%
EPS growth -145%

Past

85/100

Price performance has been exceptional, though disconnected from current earnings trends.

Positives

5Y Change +878.1%
1Y Change +239.2%

Watchpoints

Recent earnings surprises are heavily negative

Health

50/100

Low leverage is offset by poor short-term liquidity.

Positives

Low Debt/Equity (0.14)
Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (Stable)

Watchpoints

Current Ratio 0.54 (Liquidity risk)
Quick Ratio 0.34

Dividend

0/100

Non-dividend paying stock.

Positives

No standout positives identified.

Watchpoints

No dividend paid
0/100 strength score

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price

$14.28

Analyst Target

$6.81

Upside/Downside

-52.3%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for OBE and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-30

Company	5Y	3Y	1Y	6M	1M	1W
OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. Primary	+878.1%	+119.3%	+239.2%	+152.3%	+50.8%	+11.8%
HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. Peer	-15.8%	-72.1%	-24.0%	-3.5%	+8.4%	-8.1%
GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd. Peer	-36.2%	-40.0%	+24.6%	+26.9%	-5.3%	+7.8%
ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp. Peer	-64.9%	-60.3%	-11.8%	+69.3%	+14.0%	+17.6%
DEC Diversified Energy Company Peer	N/A	N/A	+38.4%	+35.3%	-10.6%	+5.3%

OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd.

Primary

+878.1%

+119.3%

+239.2%

+152.3%

+50.8%

+11.8%

HPK

HighPeak Energy, Inc.

Peer

-15.8%

-72.1%

-24.0%

-3.5%

+8.4%

-8.1%

GFR

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Peer

-36.2%

-40.0%

+24.6%

+26.9%

-5.3%

+7.8%

ACD

ProFrac Holding Corp.

Peer

-64.9%

-60.3%

-11.8%

+69.3%

+14.0%

+17.6%

DEC

Diversified Energy Company

Peer

N/A

+38.4%

+35.3%

-10.6%

+5.3%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

39.67

8.68

N/A

0.94

1.78

N/A

$964.92M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 6.51%

Operating Margin -0.7%

Gross Margin 55.57%

ROE 2.52%

ROA 2.62%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -39.2%

Earnings Growth N/A

Q/Q Revenue Growth -41.57%

Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity

0.14

Low debt

Current Ratio

0.54

Weak

Quick Ratio

0.34

Poor

Cash/Share

$N/A

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue

$0.1B

Gross Margin

45.5%

Op. Margin

-6.7%

Net Margin

-9.7%

Total Assets

$1.9B

Liabilities

$0.5B

Equity

$1.4B

Debt/Equity

0.33x

Operating CF

$0.0B

CapEx

$-0.1B

Free Cash Flow

$-0.0B

FCF Yield

-53%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-07

$N/A

2026-02-19

$-0.18

-300.0% surprise

2025-10-30

$0.24

-36.8% surprise

2025-07-30

$0.23

+32.8% surprise

Energy Sector Comparison

Comparing OBE against 143 companies in the Energy sector (14 bullish, 55 neutral, 74 bearish)

P/E Ratio

39.67

This Stock

30.05

Sector Avg

+32.0% (Expensive)

Return on Equity (ROE)

2.52%

This Stock

10.66%

Sector Avg

-76.4% (Below Avg)

Profit Margin

6.51%

This Stock

7.83%

Sector Avg

-16.9% (Weaker)

Debt to Equity

0.14

This Stock

1.24

Sector Avg

-88.4% (Less Debt)

Revenue Growth

-39.2%

This Stock

18.31%

Sector Avg

-314.1% (Slower)

Current Ratio

0.54

This Stock

2.21

Sector Avg

-75.7% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company	AI Rating	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Profit Margin	Price
OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd.	BEARISH	$964.92M	39.67	2.5%	6.5%	$14.28
HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc.	BEARISH	$801.11M	48.77	1.2%	2.2%	$6.34	Compare
GFR Greenfire Resources Ltd.	NEUTRAL	$781.41M	12.98	4.8%	8.1%	$6.23	Compare
ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp.	BEARISH	$1.15B	-	-35.2%	-19.0%	$6.35	Compare
DEC Diversified Energy Company	BULLISH	$1.15B	3.57	48.6%	21.2%	$16.36	Compare

OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd.

BEARISH

Mkt Cap

$965M

P/E

39.7

ROE

2.5%

Price

$14.28

HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc.

Compare with OBE

Compare with OBE

ACDC ProFrac Holding Corp.

Compare with OBE

Compare with OBE

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus

HOLD

2 analysts

RBC Capital

2026-02-20

Maintains

Sector Perform Sector Perform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning OBE from our newsroom.

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OBE

OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd. - Fundamental Analysis

At a glance

AI Analysis

Key Strengths

Key Risks

Performance Snowflake

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Historical Performance Trends

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Valuation Metrics

Profitability

Growth

Financial Health

Financial Statement Flow

Quarterly Earnings History

Energy Sector Comparison

Similar Companies

Wall Street Analysts

Past News Coverage

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