AAON
BEARISH
$83.9
Live
AAON, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $122.75
(+46.3%)
$62.0
52W Range
$116.04
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$6.85B
P/E
65.04
ROE
12.5%
Profit margin
7.5%
Debt/Equity
0.09
Dividend yield
0.48%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
AAON's Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health, signaling distress in operational efficiency and profitability trends. The company trades at a high forward P/E of 28.33 despite a recent 68.6% year-over-year earnings decline, suggesting overvaluation relative to current profitability. While the Graham Number ($17.83) and intrinsic value ($9.03) imply significant downside, the current price of $83.90 reflects strong growth expectations not yet supported by fundamentals. Insider selling totaling $3.19M in the last six months further undermines confidence, and the technical trend is bearish. The Altman Z-Score is unavailable, but the low Piotroski score raises red flags for financial stability.
Key Strengths
Strong revenue growth of 16.8% YoY indicates market demand and operational expansion
Excellent financial health with a very low debt/equity ratio of 0.09 and high current ratio of 2.63
Consistent positive operating cash flow and strong gross margin of 26.75%
High ROE of 12.51% and ROA of 6.45% suggest efficient use of capital
Analyst consensus remains strong_buy, indicating long-term growth optimism
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals weak financial health and deteriorating operational efficiency
Earnings have collapsed by 68.6% YoY despite revenue growth, indicating margin compression or one-time costs
Insider selling of $3.19M in six months reflects negative sentiment from within the company
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), with a 1-month price drop of 18.3% and 52-week high at $116.04
Forward P/E of 28.33 is high relative to current earnings decline, suggesting overvaluation unless growth resumes
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$17.83
-78.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
37
Weak
30
55
40
25
35
AI Verdict
Caution
Key drivers: High revenue growth but collapsing earnings, Weak Piotroski F-Score and bearish technicals, Overvaluation relative to current profitability, Strong balance sheet but declining margins, Insider selling and negative sentiment
Confidence
85%
Value
30/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Graham Number of $17.83 provides a defensive floor
- Intrinsic value of $9.03 suggests deep undervaluation if growth is not sustained
Watchpoints
- Current price of $83.90 is 4.7x the Graham Number and 9.3x the intrinsic value
- Forward P/E of 28.33 is elevated given earnings contraction
- Market is pricing in future growth not yet reflected in fundamentals
Future
55/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 16.8% YoY revenue growth suggests strong market demand
- Analyst target price of $122.75 implies significant upside potential
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +5.4% shows possible stabilization
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is -68.6% YoY, indicating severe profitability issues
- Forward P/E is high despite earnings decline, suggesting over-optimism
- No PEG ratio available, but implied growth expectations are not supported by current results
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical earnings have shown strong upside surprises (e.g., +57% in 2025-04-30)
- Consistent revenue growth over multiple quarters
- Positive ROE and ROA trends over time
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses are frequent (1 of last 4 quarters beat estimates)
- Average surprise of -14.59% over last 4 quarters indicates persistent underperformance
- Earnings have declined sharply in multiple recent quarters (e.g., -43.5%, -43.7%)
Health
25/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Extremely low debt/equity ratio (0.09) and strong liquidity (current ratio 2.63)
- No Altman Z-Score available, but low leverage reduces bankruptcy risk
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 is in the 'Weak' range, indicating poor operational health
- Declining profitability metrics (ROE, ROA, margins) despite revenue growth
- Negative earnings trend contradicts strong balance sheet
Dividend
35/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 0.48% is stable and sustainable
- Payout ratio of 31.01% is conservative and well below 100%
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 indicates low yield relative to peers
- No 5-year average yield available, limiting trend analysis
- Low yield may deter income investors
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$83.9
Analyst Target
$122.75
Upside/Downside
+46.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAON and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
Primary
|
+72.1% | +40.5% | +7.6% | +2.2% | -18.3% | -5.0% |
|
MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
Peer
|
-13.1% | +2.5% | +8.1% | +8.1% | -0.4% | +5.6% |
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
Peer
|
+1.2% | +0.3% | +11.5% | -3.6% | -0.6% | -2.7% |
|
AL
Air Lease Corporation
Peer
|
+64.5% | +54.2% | +38.3% | +11.7% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Peer
|
-54.1% | -22.8% | +8.1% | -1.2% | -11.1% | +3.6% |
AAO
AAON, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+72.1%
3Y
+40.5%
1Y
+7.6%
6M
+2.2%
1M
-18.3%
1W
-5.0%
MID
The Middleby Corporation
Peer
5Y
-13.1%
3Y
+2.5%
1Y
+8.1%
6M
+8.1%
1M
-0.4%
1W
+5.6%
ADT
ADT Inc.
Peer
5Y
+1.2%
3Y
+0.3%
1Y
+11.5%
6M
-3.6%
1M
-0.6%
1W
-2.7%
AL
Air Lease Corporation
Peer
5Y
+64.5%
3Y
+54.2%
1Y
+38.3%
6M
+11.7%
1M
+0.3%
1W
+0.2%
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Peer
5Y
-54.1%
3Y
-22.8%
1Y
+8.1%
6M
-1.2%
1M
-11.1%
1W
+3.6%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
65.04
Forward P/E
28.33
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
7.66
P/S Ratio
4.75
EV/Revenue
4.77
EV/EBITDA
30.3
Market Cap
$6.85B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.46%
Operating Margin
3.99%
Gross Margin
26.75%
ROE
12.51%
ROA
6.45%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+16.8%
Earnings Growth
-68.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-67.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.09
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.63
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.78
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.04
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-29
$N/A
2026-03-02
$0.39
-15.2% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.37
+14.9% surprise
2025-08-11
$0.19
-43.5% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AAON against 277 companies in the Industrials sector
(19 bullish, 97 neutral, 161 bearish)
P/E Ratio
65.04
This Stock
vs
81.56
Sector Avg
-20.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
12.51%
This Stock
vs
-20.04%
Sector Avg
-162.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.46%
This Stock
vs
12.29%
Sector Avg
-39.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.09
This Stock
vs
3.15
Sector Avg
-97.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
16.8%
This Stock
vs
111.87%
Sector Avg
-85.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.63
This Stock
vs
3.12
Sector Avg
-15.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $6.85B | 65.04 | 12.5% | 7.5% | $83.9 | |
|
MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $6.73B | 20.25 | 11.5% | -8.7% | $142.54 | Compare |
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.59B | 11.31 | 17.2% | 12.5% | $8.03 | Compare |
|
AL
Air Lease Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $7.2B | 7.47 | 12.7% | 35.1% | $64.42 | Compare |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
|
BEARISH | $7.35B | 65.47 | -% | 0.2% | $11.13 | Compare |
AAON
AAON, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$6.8B
P/E
65.0
ROE
12.5%
Price
$83.9
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | THOMPSON REBECCA A. | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 3,306 | $316,186 |
| 2026-01-30 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 16,536 | $1,581,503 |
| 2026-01-30 | WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E | Unknown | Option Exercise | 2,314 | $221,311 |
| 2026-01-30 | WICHMAN GORDON DOUGLAS | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,204 | $210,791 |
| 2026-01-30 | KIDWELL CASEY | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,204 | $210,791 |
| 2025-12-15 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2025-12-12 | WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E | Officer | Purchase | 6,141 | $484,400 |
| 2025-11-14 | ASBJORNSON NORMAN H | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Gift | 71,916 | - |
| 2025-11-12 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 3,553 | $124,964 |
| 2025-11-12 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Sale | 3,553 | $373,562 |
| 2025-11-11 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 26,746 | $940,714 |
| 2025-11-11 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Sale | 26,746 | $2,813,947 |
THOMPSON REBECCA A.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-30
3,306 shares
·
$316,186
FIELDS GARY D.
Director
2026-01-30
16,536 shares
·
$1,581,503
WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E
Unknown
2026-01-30
2,314 shares
·
$221,311
WICHMAN GORDON DOUGLAS
Officer
2026-01-30
2,204 shares
·
$210,791
KIDWELL CASEY
Officer
2026-01-30
2,204 shares
·
$210,791
FIELDS GARY D.
Director
2025-12-15
1,000 shares
WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E
Officer
2025-12-12
6,141 shares
·
$484,400
ASBJORNSON NORMAN H
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-14
71,916 shares
FIELDS GARY D.
Director
2025-11-12
3,553 shares
·
$124,964
FIELDS GARY D.
Director
2025-11-12
3,553 shares
·
$373,562
FIELDS GARY D.
Director
2025-11-11
26,746 shares
·
$940,714
FIELDS GARY D.
Director
2025-11-11
26,746 shares
·
$2,813,947
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
4 analysts
Oppenheimer
2026-03-03
Outperform
Outperform
DA Davidson
2026-02-03
Buy
Buy
Oppenheimer
2025-10-14
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAON from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.