AAON AAON, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AAON Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Industrials
Building Products & Equipment
Current Price
Live
$102.3
Analyst Target
$115.25
+12.7%
Upside
52W High
$116.04
52W Low
$62.0
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 21, 2026
Market cap
$8.35B
P/E
84.55
ROE
12.1%
Profit margin
7.6%
Debt/Equity
0.09
Dividend yield
0.4%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AAON's deterministic health scores signal significant financial fragility: the Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak operational and financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about potential distress risk. Despite strong revenue growth (16.8% YoY), earnings have collapsed by 68.6% YoY, undermining profitability and casting doubt on sustainability. The stock trades at a premium valuation (P/E 84.55, Price/Book 9.67) far above its Graham Number of $16.97 and intrinsic value of $8.47, suggesting overvaluation. Insider selling totaling $3.95M in six months further undermines confidence, especially with no buy activity. Analysts' 'strong_buy' consensus appears misaligned with deteriorating fundamentals.
Key Strengths
Strong revenue growth of 16.8% YoY indicates market demand and operational momentum
Exceptional financial health with a debt/equity ratio of 0.09 and current ratio of 3.04
High gross margin of 26.88% reflects pricing power and cost control
Consistent history of beating earnings estimates in 14 of the last 25 quarters
Positive recent quarterly EPS growth (Q/Q +94.7%) suggests potential recovery
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress signals across multiple metrics
Earnings have declined 68.6% YoY despite revenue growth, signaling margin erosion or one-time charges
Insider selling of $3.95M in six months with no buys suggests lack of confidence from leadership
Stock trades at 84.55x P/E and 9.67x Price/Book, vastly exceeding Graham Number ($16.97) and intrinsic value ($8.47)
No Altman Z-Score available, which is a red flag for bankruptcy risk assessment
Analyst target price ($115.25) is only 12.6% above current price, offering limited upside despite high valuation
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$16.97
-83.4% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
40
Weak
25
58
65
20
30
AI Verdict
cautious
Key drivers: Weak Piotroski F-Score (2/9), High valuation relative to intrinsic value, Declining earnings despite revenue growth, Bearish insider activity, Lack of Altman Z-Score
Confidence
88%
Value
25/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Graham Number of $16.97 provides a defensive floor
- Intrinsic value of $8.47 suggests deep undervaluation if growth is sustainable
Watchpoints
- Current price of $102.30 is 510% above Graham Number
- P/E of 84.55 is extreme compared to sector average of 74.10
- Price/Book of 9.67 is unsustainable for a company with low ROE (12.08%)
Future
58/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 16.8% YoY revenue growth indicates market expansion
- Q/Q EPS growth of +94.7% suggests potential recovery
- Recent earnings surprises have been positive in 2 of last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is -68.6% YoY, indicating severe profitability contraction
- Forward P/E of 51.56 is still elevated despite earnings decline
- No PEG ratio available, but implied growth expectations are high
Past
65/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 14 of last 25 quarters beat estimates
- Average earnings surprise of +9.48% over last 4 quarters
- Consistent revenue growth over multiple years
Watchpoints
- Two consecutive quarters with negative surprises (>40%)
- Earnings declined sharply in 2025 Q1 and Q2
- Historical volatility in earnings performance
Health
20/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Extremely low debt/equity (0.09)
- Strong current (3.04) and quick (2.00) ratios
- No reported debt or cash issues
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 is critically low, indicating multiple red flags
- No Altman Z-Score available, which is a major gap in distress risk assessment
- Declining ROE (12.08%) and ROA (6.49%) despite growth
Dividend
30/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 0.40% is stable
- Payout ratio of 31.4% is conservative and sustainable
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 indicates weak yield relative to peers
- No history of dividend growth or increases
- Low yield makes it unattractive to income investors
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$102.3
Analyst Target
$115.25
Upside/Downside
+12.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAON and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-20
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
Primary
|
+107.0% | +100.5% | -7.1% | +19.2% | +7.0% | +1.2% |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
Peer
|
+20.6% | -9.0% | +9.5% | +1.8% | +8.1% | +2.2% |
|
AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
Peer
|
+142.3% | +157.4% | +25.5% | +11.5% | -2.1% | -4.5% |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+19.9% | +19.9% | +63.0% | +38.3% | +18.3% | +1.7% |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Peer
|
-33.5% | -13.4% | -14.3% | +0.3% | -10.3% | -2.1% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
84.55
Forward P/E
51.56
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
9.67
P/S Ratio
6.35
EV/Revenue
6.3
EV/EBITDA
39.53
Market Cap
$8.35B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.62%
Operating Margin
3.99%
Gross Margin
26.88%
ROE
12.08%
ROA
6.49%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+16.8%
Earnings Growth
-68.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-67.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.09
Low debt
Current Ratio
3.04
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.0
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.04
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-02
$N/A
2025-11-06
$0.37
+14.9% surprise
2025-08-11
$0.19
-43.5% surprise
2025-04-30
$0.37
+57.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AAON against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(5 bullish, 61 neutral, 56 bearish)
P/E Ratio
84.55
This Stock
vs
74.17
Sector Avg
+14.0%
(Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
12.08%
This Stock
vs
7.57%
Sector Avg
+59.5%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
7.62%
This Stock
vs
58.43%
Sector Avg
-87.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.09
This Stock
vs
5.2
Sector Avg
-98.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
16.8%
This Stock
vs
24.48%
Sector Avg
-31.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.04
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
+14.2%
(Better)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $8.35B | 84.55 | 12.1% | 7.6% | $102.3 | |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $8.49B | 22.76 | 6.7% | 3.7% | $113.79 | |
|
AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $8.1B | 27.1 | 38.0% | 19.1% | $187.28 | |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $8.62B | 131.04 | 1.3% | 0.5% | $35.38 | |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
|
BEARISH | $8.97B | 79.94 | -% | 0.2% | $13.59 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E | Unknown | Option Exercise | 2,314 | $221,311 |
| 2026-01-30 | WICHMAN GORDON DOUGLAS | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,204 | $210,791 |
| 2026-01-30 | KIDWELL CASEY | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,204 | $210,791 |
| 2026-01-30 | THOMPSON REBECCA A. | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 3,306 | $316,186 |
| 2026-01-30 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 16,536 | $1,581,503 |
| 2025-12-15 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2025-12-12 | WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E | Officer | Purchase | 6,141 | $484,400 |
| 2025-11-14 | ASBJORNSON NORMAN H | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Gift | 71,916 | - |
| 2025-11-12 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Sale | 3,553 | $373,562 |
| 2025-11-12 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 3,553 | $124,964 |
| 2025-11-11 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Sale | 26,746 | $2,813,947 |
| 2025-11-11 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 26,746 | $940,714 |
| 2025-09-15 | TOBOLSKI MATTHEW JOSEPH | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 62,802 | - |
| 2025-09-12 | SHAUB MATTHEW | Officer | Purchase | 428 | $34,968 |
| 2025-09-04 | THOMPSON REBECCA A. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 9,350 | $758,198 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
4 analysts
DA Davidson
2026-02-03
Buy
Buy
Oppenheimer
2025-10-14
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAON from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.