AAON AAON, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AAON Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Industrials
Building Products & Equipment
Current Price
Live
$101.04
Analyst Target
$115.25
+14.1%
Upside
52W High
$116.04
52W Low
$62.0
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 14, 2026
Market cap
$8.25B
P/E
84.2
ROE
12.1%
Profit margin
7.6%
Debt/Equity
0.09
Dividend yield
0.39%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AAON's deterministic health scores signal significant financial fragility: the Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak operational and financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises red flags for potential distress risk. Despite strong revenue growth (16.8% YoY), earnings have collapsed by 68.6% YoY, undermining profitability and casting doubt on sustainability. The stock trades at a premium valuation (P/E 84.20, Price/Book 9.55) far above its Graham Number of $16.90 and intrinsic value estimate of $8.40, suggesting overvaluation. Insider selling totaling $4.97M in six months further undermines confidence, especially with no buy activity. Analysts remain optimistic, but this is not supported by current fundamentals.
Key Strengths
Strong revenue growth of 16.8% YoY, aligning with sector average
Excellent financial health metrics: Debt/Equity of 0.09 and Current Ratio of 3.04 indicate low leverage and strong liquidity
Consistent history of beating earnings estimates in prior quarters (25 quarters tracked)
High gross margin of 26.88% suggests pricing power and operational efficiency
Positive recent quarterly EPS growth (Q/Q +68.2%), indicating potential recovery momentum
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals severe financial distress and weak operational performance
Earnings have declined sharply by 68.6% YoY despite revenue growth, indicating margin compression or one-time costs
Stock trades at a massive premium to both Graham Number ($16.90) and intrinsic value ($8.40), suggesting overvaluation
Insider selling of $4.97M in six months with no corresponding buys indicates potential insider pessimism
Absence of Altman Z-Score raises unquantified bankruptcy risk, especially given earnings volatility
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$16.9
-83.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
38
Weak
25
55
60
20
30
AI Verdict
Weak
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score (2/9), Negative earnings growth (-68.6% YoY), High valuation relative to intrinsic value, Bearish insider activity, Absence of Altman Z-Score
Confidence
88%
Value
25/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Revenue growth (16.8% YoY) matches sector average
- Strong gross margin (26.88%)
Watchpoints
- P/E of 84.20 is extremely high vs. sector average of 73.93
- Price/Book of 9.55 is unsustainable for a company with low ROE (12.08%)
- Current price ($101.04) is 500% above Graham Number ($16.90)
- Intrinsic value estimate ($8.40) is far below current price
Future
55/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Q/Q EPS growth of +68.2% suggests potential recovery
- Revenue growth remains strong at 16.8% YoY
- Recent quarters show improvement in earnings surprise (e.g., +57% in Q4 2025)
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is still deeply negative (-68.6% YoY)
- Forward P/E of 50.93 remains elevated
- No PEG ratio available, but implied growth expectations are high
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 25 consecutive quarters of earnings reporting with consistent beat rate (2/4 in last 4)
- Historical EPS growth has been volatile but positive over long term
- Average earnings surprise of +13.12% in last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Significant earnings misses in prior quarters (e.g., -43.7% in Q1 2025)
- Two consecutive quarters with negative surprises (>30%)
- Earnings volatility indicates instability
Health
20/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Extremely low Debt/Equity (0.09)
- High Current Ratio (3.04) and Quick Ratio (2.00)
- Strong cash position (implied by low leverage)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates poor financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising distress risk
- Negative earnings trend despite strong balance sheet
- Declining ROE (12.08%) and ROA (6.49%)
Dividend
30/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend payout ratio of 31.4% is sustainable
- Dividend yield of 0.39% is stable
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 indicates weak yield
- No history of dividend growth
- Low yield makes it unattractive for income investors
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$101.04
Analyst Target
$115.25
Upside/Downside
+14.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAON and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
Primary
|
+102.3% | +96.3% | -10.1% | +27.3% | +15.0% | +4.8% |
|
AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
Peer
|
+142.3% | +157.4% | +25.5% | +11.5% | -2.1% | -4.5% |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
Peer
|
+20.6% | -9.0% | +9.5% | +1.8% | +8.1% | +2.2% |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+19.9% | +19.9% | +63.0% | +38.3% | +18.3% | +1.7% |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Peer
|
-22.1% | -17.3% | -11.8% | +5.4% | -8.3% | -8.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
84.2
Forward P/E
50.93
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
9.55
P/S Ratio
6.27
EV/Revenue
6.3
EV/EBITDA
39.53
Market Cap
$8.25B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.62%
Operating Margin
3.99%
Gross Margin
26.88%
ROE
12.08%
ROA
6.49%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+16.8%
Earnings Growth
-68.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-67.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.09
Low debt
Current Ratio
3.04
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.0
Excellent
Cash/Share
$0.04
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-06
$0.37
+14.9% surprise
2025-08-11
$0.22
-32.5% surprise
2025-04-30
$0.37
+57.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AAON against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(5 bullish, 62 neutral, 55 bearish)
P/E Ratio
84.2
This Stock
vs
74.1
Sector Avg
+13.6%
(Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
12.08%
This Stock
vs
7.57%
Sector Avg
+59.5%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
7.62%
This Stock
vs
58.43%
Sector Avg
-87.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.09
This Stock
vs
5.2
Sector Avg
-98.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
16.8%
This Stock
vs
24.48%
Sector Avg
-31.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.04
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
+14.2%
(Better)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $8.25B | 84.2 | 12.1% | 7.6% | $101.04 | |
|
AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $8.1B | 27.1 | 38.0% | 19.1% | $187.28 | |
|
AGCO
AGCO Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $8.49B | 22.76 | 6.7% | 3.7% | $113.79 | |
|
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $8.62B | 131.04 | 1.3% | 0.5% | $35.38 | |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
|
BEARISH | $9.16B | 81.65 | -% | 0.2% | $13.88 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E | Unknown | Option Exercise | 2,314 | $221,311 |
| 2026-01-30 | WICHMAN GORDON DOUGLAS | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,204 | $210,791 |
| 2026-01-30 | KIDWELL CASEY | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,204 | $210,791 |
| 2026-01-30 | THOMPSON REBECCA A. | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 3,306 | $316,186 |
| 2026-01-30 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 16,536 | $1,581,503 |
| 2025-12-15 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2025-12-12 | WAKEFIELD STEPHEN E | Officer | Purchase | 6,141 | $484,400 |
| 2025-11-14 | ASBJORNSON NORMAN H | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Gift | 71,916 | - |
| 2025-11-12 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Sale | 3,553 | $373,562 |
| 2025-11-12 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 3,553 | $124,964 |
| 2025-11-11 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Sale | 26,746 | $2,813,947 |
| 2025-11-11 | FIELDS GARY D. | Director | Option Exercise | 26,746 | $940,714 |
| 2025-09-15 | TOBOLSKI MATTHEW JOSEPH | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 62,802 | - |
| 2025-09-12 | SHAUB MATTHEW | Officer | Purchase | 428 | $34,968 |
| 2025-09-04 | THOMPSON REBECCA A. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 9,350 | $758,198 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
4 analysts
DA Davidson
2026-02-03
Buy
Buy
Oppenheimer
2025-10-14
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAON from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.