ADT
NEUTRAL
$8.03
Live
ADT Inc. · NYSE
Target $9.48
(+18.1%)
$7.28
52W Range
$8.94
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$6.59B
P/E
11.31
ROE
17.2%
Profit margin
12.5%
Debt/Equity
2.16
Dividend yield
2.68%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
65%
ADT's Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed profile: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates borderline financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a clear distress risk assessment. Despite solid profitability metrics—such as a 25.65% operating margin and 17.24% ROE—concerns persist due to weak liquidity (Current Ratio: 0.67, Quick Ratio: 0.37) and high leverage (Debt/Equity: 2.16). The stock trades below the analyst target price of $9.48 and near the Graham Number of $8.48, suggesting modest value, but growth is moderate and insider sentiment is neutral. Technical trend is bearish, and recent price performance shows weakness over the past six months despite a strong 1-year earnings surprise record.
Key Strengths
Strong operating profitability with 25.65% operating margin and 80.92% gross margin
High return on equity (17.24%), outperforming sector average of 7.77%
Earnings growth accelerating (YoY: 24.70%, Q/Q: 14.10%) with consistent positive surprises in recent quarters
Attractive valuation relative to peers with P/E of 11.31 vs. sector average of 53.21
Dividend payout ratio of 30.14% is sustainable with a 2.68% yield
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, particularly in liquidity and leverage
Very weak liquidity position: Current Ratio (0.67) and Quick Ratio (0.37) below 1.0 signal potential short-term solvency risk
High Debt/Equity ratio of 2.16 exceeds sector average (1.55), increasing financial risk
No Altman Z-Score available, creating uncertainty about bankruptcy risk
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and negative short-term price momentum (-3.6% over 6M)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$8.75
+9.0% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
58
Moderate
72
64
50
42
60
AI Verdict
Neutral with value appeal but structural risks
Key drivers: Low Piotroski score limiting health score, Strong ROE and margins boosting value and future outlook, High debt and poor liquidity offsetting profitability gains, Near-fair valuation based on Graham Number, Recent earnings beat streak improving future sentiment
Confidence
70%
Value
72/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 11.31 well below sector average of 53.21
- Forward P/E of 8.49 suggests earnings expansion priced in
- Current price ($8.03) near Graham Number ($8.48), indicating defensive value
Watchpoints
- Price/Book of 1.78 and Price/Sales of 1.29 are not deeply discounted
- No PEG ratio due to inconsistent growth history
Future
64/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 4.40% YoY and earnings growth of 24.70% YoY
- Recent EPS surprises averaging +10.75% over last 4 quarters
- Q/Q earnings growth of 14.10% shows momentum
Watchpoints
- Inconsistent historical earnings progression with prior volatility
- No Q/Q revenue growth data available, limiting visibility
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Recent 4-quarter beat rate of 75% (3 out of 4)
- Significant EPS surprises in 2023–2024 after prior losses
Watchpoints
- History of negative EPS and large negative surprises (e.g., -134.2% in 2022)
- EPS volatility evident over 25-quarter history
Health
42/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Profitability margins and ROE remain strong
- Positive operating cash flow implied by earnings growth
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current and Quick Ratios below 1.0 signal liquidity stress
- Debt/Equity ratio of 2.16 is high and above sector average
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.68% is above market median
- Payout ratio of 30.14% is sustainable
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 50/100 suggests uncertainty in long-term commitment
- No 5-year yield average available, limiting trend analysis
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$8.03
Analyst Target
$9.48
Upside/Downside
+18.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ADT and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
Primary
|
+1.2% | +0.3% | +11.5% | -3.6% | -0.6% | -2.7% |
|
MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
Peer
|
-13.1% | +2.5% | +8.1% | +8.1% | -0.4% | +5.6% |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
Peer
|
+72.1% | +40.5% | +7.6% | +2.2% | -18.3% | -5.0% |
|
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Peer
|
-37.8% | -37.8% | -37.8% | +25.0% | +93.8% | +14.1% |
|
AL
Air Lease Corporation
Peer
|
+64.5% | +54.2% | +38.3% | +11.7% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
ADT
ADT Inc.
Primary
5Y
+1.2%
3Y
+0.3%
1Y
+11.5%
6M
-3.6%
1M
-0.6%
1W
-2.7%
MID
The Middleby Corporation
Peer
5Y
-13.1%
3Y
+2.5%
1Y
+8.1%
6M
+8.1%
1M
-0.4%
1W
+5.6%
AAO
AAON, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+72.1%
3Y
+40.5%
1Y
+7.6%
6M
+2.2%
1M
-18.3%
1W
-5.0%
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Peer
5Y
-37.8%
3Y
-37.8%
1Y
-37.8%
6M
+25.0%
1M
+93.8%
1W
+14.1%
AL
Air Lease Corporation
Peer
5Y
+64.5%
3Y
+54.2%
1Y
+38.3%
6M
+11.7%
1M
+0.3%
1W
+0.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
11.31
Forward P/E
8.49
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.78
P/S Ratio
1.29
EV/Revenue
2.8
EV/EBITDA
5.38
Market Cap
$6.59B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
12.53%
Operating Margin
25.65%
Gross Margin
80.92%
ROE
17.24%
ROA
5.05%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
Earnings Growth
+24.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+14.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.16
High debt
Current Ratio
0.67
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.37
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.14
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-04
$0.23
+6.8% surprise
2025-07-24
$0.23
+15.0% surprise
2025-04-24
$0.21
+10.4% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing ADT against 277 companies in the Industrials sector
(19 bullish, 97 neutral, 161 bearish)
P/E Ratio
11.31
This Stock
vs
81.56
Sector Avg
-86.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
17.24%
This Stock
vs
-20.04%
Sector Avg
-186.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
12.53%
This Stock
vs
12.29%
Sector Avg
+1.9%
(Better)
Debt to Equity
2.16
This Stock
vs
3.15
Sector Avg
-31.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
4.4%
This Stock
vs
111.87%
Sector Avg
-96.1%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.67
This Stock
vs
3.12
Sector Avg
-78.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.59B | 11.31 | 17.2% | 12.5% | $8.03 | |
|
MIDD
The Middleby Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $6.73B | 20.25 | 11.5% | -8.7% | $142.54 | Compare |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $6.85B | 65.04 | 12.5% | 7.5% | $83.9 | Compare |
|
FLY
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
|
BEARISH | $6.01B | - | -56.5% | -208.9% | $37.57 | Compare |
|
AL
Air Lease Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $7.2B | 7.47 | 12.7% | 35.1% | $64.42 | Compare |
ADT
ADT Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$6.6B
P/E
11.3
ROE
17.2%
Price
$8.03
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | LIKOSAR JEFFREY | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 362 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | GRIFFIN TRACEY R | Director | Stock Award | 119 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | ZARMI SIGAL | Director | Stock Award | 119 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | DEVRIES JAMES DAVID | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 1,880 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | GARTLAND THOMAS M | Director | Stock Award | 166 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | SMAIL DAVID W. | Officer | Stock Award | 236 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | BURZO STEVEN | Officer | Stock Award | 79 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | SMITH PAUL JOSEPH | Director | Stock Award | 119 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | AHMAD FAWAD | Chief Operating Officer | Stock Award | 2,108 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | TIEDT DANIELLE | Director | Stock Award | 119 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | YOON SUZANNE | Director | Stock Award | 119 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | DERNBERGER TODD | Officer | Stock Award | 233 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | WINTER MATTHEW EVAN | Director | Stock Award | 119 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | HOUSTON DANIEL JOSEPH | Director | Stock Award | 119 | - |
| 2025-10-02 | LIKOSAR JEFFREY | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 339 | - |
LIKOSAR JEFFREY
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-08
362 shares
GRIFFIN TRACEY R
Director
2026-01-08
119 shares
ZARMI SIGAL
Director
2026-01-08
119 shares
DEVRIES JAMES DAVID
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-08
1,880 shares
GARTLAND THOMAS M
Director
2026-01-08
166 shares
SMAIL DAVID W.
Officer
2026-01-08
236 shares
BURZO STEVEN
Officer
2026-01-08
79 shares
SMITH PAUL JOSEPH
Director
2026-01-08
119 shares
AHMAD FAWAD
Chief Operating Officer
2026-01-08
2,108 shares
TIEDT DANIELLE
Director
2026-01-08
119 shares
YOON SUZANNE
Director
2026-01-08
119 shares
DERNBERGER TODD
Officer
2026-01-08
233 shares
WINTER MATTHEW EVAN
Director
2026-01-08
119 shares
HOUSTON DANIEL JOSEPH
Director
2026-01-08
119 shares
LIKOSAR JEFFREY
Chief Financial Officer
2025-10-02
339 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
5 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-17
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Citigroup
2025-08-26
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-07-28
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ADT from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.