CAKE
BEARISH
$55.78
Live
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated · NASDAQ
Target $64.44
(+15.5%)
$43.0
52W Range
$69.7
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 08, 2026
Market cap
$2.78B
P/E
18.23
ROE
33.7%
Profit margin
4.0%
Debt/Equity
4.88
Dividend yield
2.1%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
75%
CAKE shows bearish fundamentals based on deterministic rules. Financial strength is stable (F-Score 5/9). Concerns include weak profitability or high valuation.
Key Strengths
Strong ROE of 33.7%
Key Risks
Premium vs Graham Number ($24.6)
Low profit margin of 4.0%
High debt burden with D/E of 4.88
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$21.42
-61.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
48
Moderate
50
50
50
40
50
AI Verdict
CAKE shows bearish fundamentals based on deterministic rules. Financial strength is stable (F-Score 5/9). Concerns include weak profitability or high valuation.
Key drivers: Strong ROE of 33.7%, Premium vs Graham Number ($24.6), Low profit margin of 4.0%
Confidence
35%
Value
50/100
Rule-based valuation (P/E + Graham).
Positives
- Insufficient data for clear positives.
Watchpoints
- Trades above Graham Number.
Future
50/100
Rule-based growth outlook.
Positives
- Insufficient data for clear positives.
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Past
50/100
Historical performance + price trend: Shares moved +4.5% over 5Y and +28.1% over 1Y.
Positives
- ROE sits at 33.7%.
Watchpoints
- Thin profit margins.
Health
40/100
Balance sheet & liquidity (Z-Score: N/A).
Positives
- Insufficient data for clear positives.
Watchpoints
- High D/E ratio (4.88).
Dividend
50/100
Dividend policy fallback.
Positives
- Moderate dividend profile (Score: 50/100).
- Yield: 2.1%.
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$55.78
Analyst Target
$64.44
Upside/Downside
+15.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CAKE and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-07
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Primary
|
+4.5% | +75.2% | +28.1% | +4.3% | -11.4% | +1.9% |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
|
-67.0% | -66.0% | +1.0% | -19.4% | +14.4% | +8.3% |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
|
+15.2% | -25.8% | +3.8% | -0.6% | -10.2% | -1.2% |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Peer
|
-39.2% | +7.4% | +73.1% | +20.4% | +8.6% | +0.9% |
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Peer
|
-34.3% | +45.2% | +66.1% | -2.9% | -26.3% | -4.8% |
CAK
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Primary
5Y
+4.5%
3Y
+75.2%
1Y
+28.1%
6M
+4.3%
1M
-11.4%
1W
+1.9%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-67.0%
3Y
-66.0%
1Y
+1.0%
6M
-19.4%
1M
+14.4%
1W
+8.3%
BRS
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
5Y
+15.2%
3Y
-25.8%
1Y
+3.8%
6M
-0.6%
1M
-10.2%
1W
-1.2%
AMB
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Peer
5Y
-39.2%
3Y
+7.4%
1Y
+73.1%
6M
+20.4%
1M
+8.6%
1W
+0.9%
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-34.3%
3Y
+45.2%
1Y
+66.1%
6M
-2.9%
1M
-26.3%
1W
-4.8%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
18.23
Forward P/E
12.6
PEG Ratio
1.15
P/B Ratio
6.34
P/S Ratio
0.74
EV/Revenue
1.27
EV/EBITDA
14.29
Market Cap
$2.78B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.96%
Operating Margin
7.0%
Gross Margin
40.39%
ROE
33.74%
ROA
4.46%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
Earnings Growth
-27.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+4.41%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-30.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
4.88
High debt
Current Ratio
0.58
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.45
Poor
Cash/Share
$4.33
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$1.0B
Gross Margin
44.6%
Op. Margin
8.0%
Net Margin
3.0%
Total Assets
$3.3B
Liabilities
$2.8B
Equity
$0.4B
Debt/Equity
6.47x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
66%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-29
$N/A
2026-02-18
$1.0
+1.5% surprise
2025-10-28
$0.66
+8.9% surprise
2025-07-29
$1.16
+9.2% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing CAKE against 107 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(9 bullish, 49 neutral, 49 bearish)
P/E Ratio
18.23
This Stock
vs
42.12
Sector Avg
-56.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
33.74%
This Stock
vs
7.96%
Sector Avg
+323.8%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
3.96%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+405.4%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
4.88
This Stock
vs
1.62
Sector Avg
+200.9%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
4.4%
This Stock
vs
6.57%
Sector Avg
-33.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.58
This Stock
vs
1.91
Sector Avg
-69.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
BEARISH | $2.78B | 18.23 | 33.7% | 4.0% | $55.78 | |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.81B | - | -23.9% | -4.4% | $46.77 | Compare |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
|
BEARISH | $2.65B | 156.44 | 2.0% | 13.8% | $14.08 | Compare |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
|
BEARISH | $2.64B | - | -% | 0.3% | $4.41 | Compare |
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.98B | 16.13 | 10.7% | 3.5% | $17.58 | Compare |
CAKE
The Cheesecake...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$2.8B
P/E
18.2
ROE
33.7%
Price
$55.78
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | MAY SCARLETT A | General Counsel | Sale | 5,206 | $327,708 |
| 2026-02-25 | CLARK MATTHEW ELIOT | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 7,000 | $459,900 |
| 2026-02-25 | HANSCOM ASHLEY W | Officer | Sale | 2,951 | $193,689 |
| 2026-02-25 | ALEX SPERO G | Officer | Sale | 4,790 | $316,122 |
| 2026-02-23 | CAPPELLO ALEXANDER L | Director | Sale | 635 | $40,475 |
| 2026-02-11 | OVERTON DAVID M | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 113,395 | - |
| 2026-02-11 | MAY SCARLETT A | General Counsel | Stock Award | 12,933 | - |
| 2026-02-11 | CLARK MATTHEW ELIOT | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 25,947 | - |
| 2026-02-11 | GORDON DAVID M | President | Stock Award | 29,161 | - |
| 2026-02-11 | HANSCOM ASHLEY W | Officer | Stock Award | 2,280 | - |
| 2026-02-11 | ALEX SPERO G | Officer | Stock Award | 2,600 | - |
| 2025-12-10 | OVERTON DAVID M | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 50 | - |
MAY SCARLETT A
General Counsel
2026-03-10
5,206 shares
·
$327,708
CLARK MATTHEW ELIOT
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-25
7,000 shares
·
$459,900
HANSCOM ASHLEY W
Officer
2026-02-25
2,951 shares
·
$193,689
ALEX SPERO G
Officer
2026-02-25
4,790 shares
·
$316,122
CAPPELLO ALEXANDER L
Director
2026-02-23
635 shares
·
$40,475
OVERTON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-11
113,395 shares
MAY SCARLETT A
General Counsel
2026-02-11
12,933 shares
CLARK MATTHEW ELIOT
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-11
25,947 shares
GORDON DAVID M
President
2026-02-11
29,161 shares
HANSCOM ASHLEY W
Officer
2026-02-11
2,280 shares
ALEX SPERO G
Officer
2026-02-11
2,600 shares
OVERTON DAVID M
Chief Executive Officer
2025-12-10
50 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
18 analysts
Citigroup
2026-02-19
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-02-19
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Stephens & Co.
2026-02-19
Overweight
Equal-Weight
Mizuho
2026-02-12
Outperform
Outperform
Citigroup
2026-02-09
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-20
Underweight
Underweight
Barclays
2026-01-07
Underweight
Underweight
Freedom Capital Markets
2025-12-17
Hold
Argus Research
2025-11-07
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-10-30
Underweight
Underweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning CAKE from our newsroom.
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