AEO
NEUTRAL
$17.58
Live
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. · NYSE
Target $24.11
(+37.2%)
$9.27
52W Range
$28.46
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$2.98B
P/E
16.13
ROE
10.7%
Profit margin
3.5%
Debt/Equity
1.02
Dividend yield
2.84%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
78%
AEO's Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health, signaling distress in operational efficiency and profitability trends. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about bankruptcy risk, especially given a high debt/equity ratio of 1.02 and a low quick ratio of 0.57. While the stock trades below its Graham Number ($15.67) and intrinsic value ($7.63), suggesting undervaluation on a defensive basis, the forward P/E of 8.83 and strong earnings growth momentum (55.6% YoY) imply market optimism. However, recent insider selling totaling $38.81M and a bearish technical trend undermine confidence. Analysts maintain a 'hold' recommendation, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Key Strengths
Strong forward P/E of 8.83 suggests potential undervaluation relative to growth expectations
High earnings growth (55.6% YoY) and positive recent EPS surprises (avg +53.06%) indicate improving profitability
Graham Number ($15.67) is below current price ($17.58), indicating potential defensive upside
Consistent quarterly beat rate (3/4 in last 4 quarters) reflects earnings reliability
Positive 1-year price return (+66.1%) and strong 3-year return (+45.2%) show long-term momentum
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress and weak operational health
Insider selling of $38.81M in last 6 months signals negative sentiment from within the company
Negative earnings growth (-7.00% YoY) and Q/Q decline (-15.80%) contradict forward momentum
Low quick ratio (0.57) and high debt/equity (1.02) suggest liquidity and leverage concerns
No Altman Z-Score available with a score <1.8 would indicate high bankruptcy risk
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$15.67
-10.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
55
Moderate
68
72
58
32
45
AI Verdict
neutral
Key drivers: Strong forward P/E and earnings growth, Weak Piotroski F-Score and insider selling, Undervaluation per Graham Number, Lack of Altman Z-Score raises distress risk, Mixed technical and momentum signals
Confidence
78%
Value
68/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price ($17.58) is above intrinsic value ($7.63) but below Graham Number ($15.67)
- Forward P/E of 8.83 is significantly below sector average (42.96)
- Price/Sales of 0.54 is low, indicating potential undervaluation
Watchpoints
- Stock trades above Graham Number, suggesting premium valuation despite low growth metrics
- Intrinsic value is extremely low ($7.63), implying poor growth assumptions
Future
72/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 55.6% YoY EPS growth and 58.5% Q/Q EPS growth indicate strong forward momentum
- Average earnings surprise of +53.06% in last 4 quarters shows consistent outperformance
- Forward P/E of 8.83 implies high growth expectations priced in
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth (9.70%) is not translating into earnings growth (-7.00% YoY)
- Recent Q/Q earnings decline (-15.80%) suggests near-term pressure
Past
58/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 3/4 quarters beat estimates in last 4 periods
- Strong historical returns: +66.1% in 1Y, +45.2% in 3Y
- Multiple quarters with >50% earnings surprise (e.g., +119.8%)
Watchpoints
- Significant earnings misses in 2022 and 2020 (e.g., -64.5%, -153.2%)
- 52-week low of $9.27 reflects long-term underperformance
Health
32/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.52 indicates short-term liquidity is adequate
- Operating margin of 10.23% is healthy for retail
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 is extremely low, indicating poor financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available; if <1.8, would signal high bankruptcy risk
- Debt/Equity of 1.02 is above sector average (1.65), but still concerning given low quick ratio
Dividend
45/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.84% is attractive for a consumer cyclical
- Payout ratio of 45.87% is sustainable and below 60% threshold
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 50/100 indicates moderate quality
- No 5-year average yield data, limiting long-term reliability assessment
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$17.58
Analyst Target
$24.11
Upside/Downside
+37.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AEO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Primary
|
-34.3% | +45.2% | +66.1% | -2.9% | -26.3% | -4.8% |
|
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
Peer
|
-96.0% | -88.2% | -60.6% | -59.9% | -5.0% | -8.0% |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
|
-67.0% | -66.0% | +1.0% | -19.4% | +14.4% | +8.3% |
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Peer
|
+4.5% | +75.2% | +28.1% | +4.3% | -11.4% | +1.9% |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
|
+15.2% | -25.8% | +3.8% | -0.6% | -10.2% | -1.2% |
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-34.3%
3Y
+45.2%
1Y
+66.1%
6M
-2.9%
1M
-26.3%
1W
-4.8%
LCI
Lucid Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-96.0%
3Y
-88.2%
1Y
-60.6%
6M
-59.9%
1M
-5.0%
1W
-8.0%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-67.0%
3Y
-66.0%
1Y
+1.0%
6M
-19.4%
1M
+14.4%
1W
+8.3%
CAK
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Peer
5Y
+4.5%
3Y
+75.2%
1Y
+28.1%
6M
+4.3%
1M
-11.4%
1W
+1.9%
BRS
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
5Y
+15.2%
3Y
-25.8%
1Y
+3.8%
6M
-0.6%
1M
-10.2%
1W
-1.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
16.13
Forward P/E
8.83
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.76
P/S Ratio
0.54
EV/Revenue
0.81
EV/EBITDA
8.11
Market Cap
$2.98B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.49%
Operating Margin
10.23%
Gross Margin
36.84%
ROE
10.73%
ROA
5.21%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+9.7%
Earnings Growth
-7.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-15.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.02
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.52
Good
Quick Ratio
0.57
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.41
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-28
$N/A
2026-03-04
$0.84
+17.8% surprise
2025-12-02
$0.53
+21.6% surprise
2025-09-03
$0.45
+119.8% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing AEO against 205 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(12 bullish, 78 neutral, 115 bearish)
P/E Ratio
16.13
This Stock
vs
36.28
Sector Avg
-55.5%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
10.73%
This Stock
vs
-8.76%
Sector Avg
-222.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
3.49%
This Stock
vs
-4.71%
Sector Avg
-174.1%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.02
This Stock
vs
1.37
Sector Avg
-25.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
9.7%
This Stock
vs
4.71%
Sector Avg
+105.9%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.52
This Stock
vs
2.41
Sector Avg
-37.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.98B | 16.13 | 10.7% | 3.5% | $17.58 | |
|
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.12B | - | -66.0% | -199.3% | $9.53 | Compare |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.81B | - | -23.9% | -4.4% | $46.77 | Compare |
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
BEARISH | $2.78B | 18.23 | 33.7% | 4.0% | $55.78 | Compare |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
|
BEARISH | $2.65B | 156.44 | 2.0% | 13.8% | $14.08 | Compare |
AEO
American Eagle...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$3.0B
P/E
16.1
ROE
10.7%
Price
$17.58
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | KEEFER JAMES H. JR. | Officer | Stock Award | 14,300 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | BALDWIN MARISA | Officer | Stock Award | 35,750 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | MATHIAS MICHAEL A. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 76,265 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | HENKE BETH M | Officer | Stock Award | 14,300 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | FOYLE JENNIFER M | Officer | Stock Award | 200,194 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 395,623 | - |
| 2026-01-22 | SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 1,048,579 | $26,813,205 |
| 2026-01-21 | SPIEGEL NOEL JOSEPH | Director | Sale | 1,896 | $48,661 |
| 2026-01-14 | MCMILLAN CARY D | Director | Sale | 1,896 | $49,702 |
| 2025-12-31 | SPIEGEL NOEL JOSEPH | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | PAGE JANICE E | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | SABLE DAVID M | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | MCMILLAN CARY D | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-09 | KEEFER JAMES H. JR. | Officer | Sale | 5,741 | $134,869 |
| 2025-12-08 | BALDWIN MARISA | Officer | Sale | 61,319 | $1,374,159 |
KEEFER JAMES H. JR.
Officer
2026-02-05
14,300 shares
BALDWIN MARISA
Officer
2026-02-05
35,750 shares
MATHIAS MICHAEL A.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-05
76,265 shares
HENKE BETH M
Officer
2026-02-05
14,300 shares
FOYLE JENNIFER M
Officer
2026-02-05
200,194 shares
SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-05
395,623 shares
SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-22
1,048,579 shares
·
$26,813,205
SPIEGEL NOEL JOSEPH
Director
2026-01-21
1,896 shares
·
$48,661
MCMILLAN CARY D
Director
2026-01-14
1,896 shares
·
$49,702
SPIEGEL NOEL JOSEPH
Director
2025-12-31
1,896 shares
PAGE JANICE E
Director
2025-12-31
1,896 shares
SABLE DAVID M
Director
2025-12-31
1,896 shares
MCMILLAN CARY D
Director
2025-12-31
1,896 shares
KEEFER JAMES H. JR.
Officer
2025-12-09
5,741 shares
·
$134,869
BALDWIN MARISA
Officer
2025-12-08
61,319 shares
·
$1,374,159
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
9 analysts
Citigroup
2026-03-06
Neutral
Neutral
TD Cowen
2026-03-06
Hold
Hold
Barclays
2026-03-06
Underweight
Underweight
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-03-05
Market Perform
Market Perform
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-02-26
Market Perform
Market Perform
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-01-13
Market Perform
Market Perform
UBS
2026-01-08
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2026-01-06
Underweight
Underweight
Goldman Sachs
2025-12-11
Neutral
Citigroup
2025-12-03
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AEO from our newsroom.
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