AEO American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
Sign in to save
Save this symbol to a watchlist or track a position.
AEO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Apparel Retail
Current Price
Live
$24.14
Analyst Target
$25.78
+6.8%
Upside
52W High
$28.46
52W Low
$9.27
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$4.09B
P/E
22.35
ROE
12.4%
Profit margin
3.9%
Debt/Equity
1.21
Dividend yield
1.99%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed financial profile: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates borderline stable financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a definitive safety assessment. The stock trades above the Graham Number of $15.26 at $24.14, suggesting possible overvaluation for defensive investors, though growth-based intrinsic value of $31.86 supports current levels. Solid earnings growth (29.3% YoY) and improving margins are offset by weak technicals (10/100) and significant insider selling. Analysts concur with a 'hold' rating and a modestly higher target price of $25.78.
Key Strengths
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 29.3% indicates effective profitability recovery
Operating margin of 8.26% and gross margin of 36.95% are healthy for the apparel retail sector
ROE of 12.36% exceeds sector average of 5.99%, signaling efficient equity use
Dividend yield of 1.99% is attractive relative to sector peers and supports income investors
Revenue growth of 5.7% aligns with sector average, showing stable top-line performance
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests weak financial stability, particularly concerning asset efficiency and leverage
Quick ratio of 0.42 indicates potential liquidity risk despite a current ratio of 1.63
Debt/Equity of 1.21 is above peer average (1.58 sector avg), increasing financial risk
Insider selling of $39.87M in 6 months signals lack of confidence from executives
Technical trend score of 10/100 reflects strong bearish momentum despite recent gains
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$28.5
+18.1% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
54
Moderate
52
64
50
45
60
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside potential if execution improves
Key drivers: Solid earnings growth and ROE, Moderate valuation relative to growth, Dividend sustainability, Liquidity concerns, Insider selling pressure
Confidence
70%
Value
52/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 22.35 below sector average of 56.39
- Price/Sales of 0.77 suggests reasonable revenue valuation
Watchpoints
- Current price 58% above Graham Number ($15.26)
- Forward P/E of 14.30 implies premium to near-term earnings
Future
64/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 29.3% YoY earnings growth
- 14.2% Q/Q earnings growth
- Analyst target price implies 7% upside
Watchpoints
- PEG unavailable limits growth-adjusted valuation
- Forward P/E decline suggests deceleration expectations
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 68.6% 3Y return shows strong recovery
- History of occasional large earnings beats (e.g., +119.8%)
Watchpoints
- Earnings surprise volatility: 4 of last 25 quarters missed by >30%
- 1Y momentum peaked 6M ago; recent 1M -9.0% correction
Health
45/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.63 indicates adequate short-term coverage
- Positive ROA of 4.65% shows asset productivity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 0.42 signals inventory-heavy liquidity risk
- No Altman Z-Score available for distress assessment
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- 1.99% yield above sector average
- 44.25% payout ratio is sustainable
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 suggests limited growth history
- No 5-year yield average available for trend analysis
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$24.14
Analyst Target
$25.78
Upside/Downside
+6.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AEO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Primary
|
+16.4% | +68.6% | +44.5% | +108.3% | -9.0% | -5.1% |
|
ALH
Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
-12.7% | -12.7% | -12.7% | -12.7% | +0.5% | -2.9% |
|
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
Peer
|
+147.6% | +7.0% | +3.5% | +2.9% | +11.3% | -3.0% |
|
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
Peer
|
+294.4% | +242.8% | -22.4% | +4.3% | -24.0% | -7.5% |
|
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
Peer
|
-30.8% | -47.1% | -38.5% | -28.3% | +12.6% | -4.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
22.35
Forward P/E
14.3
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.52
P/S Ratio
0.77
EV/Revenue
1.11
EV/EBITDA
11.57
Market Cap
$4.09B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.9%
Operating Margin
8.26%
Gross Margin
36.95%
ROE
12.36%
ROA
4.65%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+5.7%
Earnings Growth
+29.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+14.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.21
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.63
Good
Quick Ratio
0.42
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.67
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-11
$N/A
2025-12-02
$0.53
+24.0% surprise
2025-09-03
$0.45
+119.8% surprise
2025-05-29
$-0.36
-64.5% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing AEO against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(6 bullish, 49 neutral, 39 bearish)
P/E Ratio
22.35
This Stock
vs
42.9
Sector Avg
-47.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
12.36%
This Stock
vs
6.28%
Sector Avg
+97.0%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
3.9%
This Stock
vs
0.87%
Sector Avg
+347.9%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
1.21
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
-26.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
5.7%
This Stock
vs
7.63%
Sector Avg
-25.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.63
This Stock
vs
1.86
Sector Avg
-12.4%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.09B | 22.35 | 12.4% | 3.9% | $24.14 | |
|
ALH
Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.39B | 36.1 | -% | 7.1% | $21.66 | |
|
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.79B | 10.44 | 18.3% | 6.3% | $56.82 | |
|
ANF
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.53B | 9.38 | 40.9% | 10.1% | $96.3 | |
|
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.58B | 6.87 | -% | 9.5% | $22.2 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 1,048,579 | $26,813,205 |
| 2026-01-14 | MCMILLAN CARY D | Director | Sale | 1,896 | $49,702 |
| 2025-12-31 | MCMILLAN CARY D | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | SPIEGEL NOEL JOSEPH | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | PAGE JANICE E | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | SABLE DAVID M | Director | Stock Award | 1,896 | - |
| 2025-12-09 | KEEFER JAMES H. JR. | Officer | Sale | 5,741 | $134,869 |
| 2025-12-08 | BALDWIN MARISA | Officer | Sale | 61,319 | $1,374,159 |
| 2025-12-08 | BALDWIN MARISA | Officer | Option Exercise | 61,319 | $942,170 |
| 2025-12-05 | MATHIAS MICHAEL A. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 186,580 | $4,486,876 |
| 2025-12-05 | FOYLE JENNIFER M | Officer | Sale | 243,047 | $5,906,042 |
| 2025-12-05 | MATHIAS MICHAEL A. | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 136,580 | $2,109,369 |
| 2025-12-05 | FOYLE JENNIFER M | Officer | Option Exercise | 213,691 | $3,474,110 |
| 2025-10-03 | MCMILLAN CARY D | Director | Sale | 2,945 | $49,932 |
| 2025-10-01 | MCMILLAN CARY D | Director | Stock Award | 2,945 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
9 analysts
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-01-13
Market Perform
Market Perform
UBS
2026-01-08
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2026-01-06
Underweight
Underweight
Goldman Sachs
2025-12-11
Neutral
Citigroup
2025-12-03
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2025-12-03
Buy
Buy
B of A Securities
2025-12-03
Underperform
Underperform
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-12-03
Market Perform
Market Perform
JP Morgan
2025-12-03
Underweight
Neutral
Barclays
2025-12-03
Underweight
Underweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AEO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.