AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AAP Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Auto Parts
Current Price
Live
$46.77
Analyst Target
$51.29
+9.7%
Upside
52W High
$70.0
52W Low
$28.89
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$2.81B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-23.9%
Profit margin
-4.4%
Debt/Equity
2.58
Dividend yield
2.18%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
88%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals severe financial health concerns with a Piotroski F-Score of just 1/9, indicating weak operational and balance sheet performance. Despite a modest dividend yield and a low Price/Sales ratio, the company is unprofitable with negative earnings, deteriorating ROE of -23.87%, and a high debt/equity ratio of 2.58. Earnings volatility is extreme, with recent quarters showing massive misses and a YoY EPS growth distortion due to negative prior-year comparisons. The stock trades below fair value expectations but reflects justified risk discounting given persistent profitability and cash flow challenges.
Key Strengths
Attractive Price/Sales ratio of 0.33 suggests potential undervaluation relative to revenue
Gross margin remains healthy at 42.35%, indicating pricing power or cost control at the product level
Current ratio of 1.73 shows short-term liquidity is adequate
Dividend yield of 2.18% offers modest income appeal despite sustainability concerns
Forward P/E of 17.52 is below sector average, suggesting conservative earnings expectations
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 signals severe financial distress and weak fundamentals
Negative profit margin (-4.37%) and ROE (-23.87%) indicate ongoing unprofitability and poor capital efficiency
Debt/Equity ratio of 2.58 is well above sector average (1.58), increasing financial risk
Payout ratio of 126.58% exceeds earnings, making dividend unsustainable without borrowing or asset sales
Extreme earnings volatility with multiple large negative surprises in recent quarters
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
28
Weak
65
20
15
10
30
AI Verdict
High-risk turnaround candidate with deep value characteristics but significant fundamental deterioration
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, Negative profitability metrics, High leverage, Unsustainable dividend payout, Extreme earnings volatility
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Low Price/Sales of 0.33
- Price/Book of 1.28 below sector peers
- Forward P/E of 17.52 below sector average of 58.47
Watchpoints
- No Graham Number or Intrinsic Value available
- P/E is N/A due to negative earnings
Future
20/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue decline slowing (YoY -5.20%)
- Forward P/E implies some recovery expectations
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth negative YoY (-5.20%)
- No earnings growth data due to losses
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth: -102.9%
Past
15/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically strong earnings pre-2023 (e.g., $2.88 EPS in Q1 2023)
Watchpoints
- Consistent earnings misses over last 12 months
- Profitability collapsed in 2024–2025
- 5Y price return: -67.0%
Health
10/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.73 supports short-term obligations
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score: 1/9 (Weak)
- Altman Z-Score: None (missing, but implied distress)
- ROA: 0.01%, near zero return on assets
- Debt/Equity: 2.58 (highly leveraged)
Dividend
30/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.18% above market average
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 126.58% unsustainable
- Dividend Strength score: 20/100
- No visibility on dividend stability amid losses
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$46.77
Analyst Target
$51.29
Upside/Downside
+9.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AAP and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Primary
|
-67.0% | -66.0% | +1.0% | -19.4% | +14.4% | +8.3% |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
Peer
|
+15.2% | -25.8% | +3.8% | -0.6% | -10.2% | -1.2% |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Peer
|
-39.2% | +7.4% | +73.1% | +20.4% | +8.6% | +0.9% |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
Peer
|
+149.2% | +56.2% | +15.2% | +11.3% | -0.6% | -3.3% |
|
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc.
Peer
|
-1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -9.4% | -1.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
17.52
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.28
P/S Ratio
0.33
EV/Revenue
0.61
EV/EBITDA
24.78
Market Cap
$2.81B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-4.37%
Operating Margin
2.9%
Gross Margin
42.35%
ROE
-23.87%
ROA
0.01%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-5.2%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.58
High debt
Current Ratio
1.73
Good
Quick Ratio
0.84
Poor
Cash/Share
$52.88
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-13
$N/A
2025-10-30
$-0.02
-102.7% surprise
2025-08-14
$0.69
+18.3% surprise
2025-05-22
$-0.22
+68.1% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing AAP against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(6 bullish, 49 neutral, 39 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-23.87%
This Stock
vs
6.27%
Sector Avg
-480.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-4.37%
This Stock
vs
0.86%
Sector Avg
-610.8%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.58
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
+56.6%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
-5.2%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
-168.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.73
This Stock
vs
1.86
Sector Avg
-7.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.81B | - | -23.9% | -4.4% | $46.77 | |
|
BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
|
BEARISH | $2.65B | 156.44 | 2.0% | 13.8% | $14.08 | |
|
AMBP
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
|
BEARISH | $2.64B | - | -% | 0.3% | $4.41 | |
|
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.61B | 12.9 | 41.3% | 16.1% | $50.97 | |
|
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.56B | - | -% | 6.9% | $23.07 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | SOLER KRISTEN L | Officer | Sale | 7,662 | $390,762 |
| 2025-10-24 | STEPHEN SZILAGYI J | Officer | Stock Award | 5 | $313 |
| 2025-10-24 | WINDOM BRENT | Director | Stock Award | 29 | $1,594 |
| 2025-10-24 | SEBOLDT THOMAS W. | Director | Stock Award | 26 | $1,450 |
| 2025-10-24 | SEBOLDT THOMAS W. | Director | Stock Award | 30 | $1,645 |
| 2025-10-24 | HILSON JOAN M | Director | Stock Award | 43 | $2,398 |
| 2025-10-24 | BAILO CARLA JEAN | Director | Stock Award | 51 | $2,797 |
| 2025-10-24 | SMITH GREGORY L | Director | Stock Award | 29 | $1,594 |
| 2025-10-24 | JONES JEFFREY J II | Director | Stock Award | 63 | $3,442 |
| 2025-10-24 | FERRARO JOHN FRANCIS | Director | Stock Award | 105 | $5,735 |
| 2025-10-24 | LEE EUGENE I JR | Director | Stock Award | 365 | $19,933 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
21 analysts
TD Cowen
2026-01-20
Hold
Hold
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-15
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-12-16
In-Line
In-Line
Evercore ISI Group
2025-12-09
In-Line
In-Line
Citigroup
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
DA Davidson
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
Roth Capital
2025-10-27
Neutral
Neutral
Truist Securities
2025-10-20
Hold
Hold
Morgan Stanley
2025-09-12
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AAP from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.