FWRG
BEARISH
$11.65
Live
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $19.5
(+67.4%)
$10.09
52W Range
$20.55
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 10, 2026
Market cap
$717.93M
P/E
36.41
ROE
3.2%
Profit margin
1.6%
Debt/Equity
1.61
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
FWRG presents a contradictory profile where strong top-line growth is undermined by severe liquidity risks and bearish internal signals. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stable operational health, the company's current ratio of 0.29 and quick ratio of 0.17 signal a critical short-term liquidity crisis. The stock is currently trading at a premium to both its Graham Number ($8.59) and Intrinsic Value ($9.44), while insiders—including the CEO and CFO—are aggressively selling. Despite strong analyst buy ratings, the combination of thin profit margins (1.59%) and a persistent technical downtrend suggests significant downside risk.
Key Strengths
Strong YoY revenue growth of 20.20%
Stable Piotroski F-Score (6/9)
Low Price-to-Sales ratio (0.59)
Significant EPS growth recovery (2290.30% YoY)
Strong analyst consensus (Strong Buy) with high price targets
Key Risks
Critical liquidity risk (Current Ratio 0.29, Quick Ratio 0.17)
Aggressive insider selling by C-suite executives
Very thin net profit margins (1.59%)
Trading above deterministic fair value estimates
Severe negative price momentum (1Y Change -33.7%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$9.02
-22.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
38
Weak
40
75
30
45
0
AI Verdict
High Risk / Overvalued
Key drivers: Liquidity crisis, Insider divestment, Valuation premium over intrinsic value, Strong revenue growth
Confidence
90%
Value
40/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Low P/S ratio
Watchpoints
- Price ($11.65) exceeds Graham Number ($8.59)
- Price exceeds Intrinsic Value ($9.44)
- High P/E ratio (36.41)
Future
75/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 20%+ Revenue growth
- Strong EPS growth trajectory
Watchpoints
- Thin margins limit scalability of earnings
Past
30/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent revenue expansion
Watchpoints
- Poor 1Y, 6M, and 3Y price performance
- Frequent earnings misses in recent quarters
Health
45/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9
Watchpoints
- Dangerously low Current Ratio (0.29)
- High Debt/Equity (1.61)
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend payments
- 0/100 dividend strength
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$11.65
Analyst Target
$19.5
Upside/Downside
+67.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for FWRG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-09
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
Primary
|
-47.4% | -24.1% | -33.7% | -26.4% | -7.0% | +8.3% |
|
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding Corp.
Peer
|
-87.5% | -84.9% | -23.0% | -26.9% | +3.5% | +0.9% |
|
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
Peer
|
-58.5% | -61.9% | -33.9% | -21.6% | +17.9% | +0.5% |
|
BALY
Bally's Corporation
Peer
|
-6.3% | -6.3% | -7.7% | +65.5% | -4.6% | -1.6% |
|
EVGO
EVgo, Inc.
Peer
|
-86.1% | -70.9% | -20.8% | -59.5% | -14.3% | +7.9% |
FWR
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-47.4%
3Y
-24.1%
1Y
-33.7%
6M
-26.4%
1M
-7.0%
1W
+8.3%
FOX
Fox Factory Holding Corp.
Peer
5Y
-87.5%
3Y
-84.9%
1Y
-23.0%
6M
-26.9%
1M
+3.5%
1W
+0.9%
BLM
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-58.5%
3Y
-61.9%
1Y
-33.9%
6M
-21.6%
1M
+17.9%
1W
+0.5%
BAL
Bally's Corporation
Peer
5Y
-6.3%
3Y
-6.3%
1Y
-7.7%
6M
+65.5%
1M
-4.6%
1W
-1.6%
EVG
EVgo, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-86.1%
3Y
-70.9%
1Y
-20.8%
6M
-59.5%
1M
-14.3%
1W
+7.9%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
36.41
Forward P/E
38.18
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.14
P/S Ratio
0.59
EV/Revenue
1.39
EV/EBITDA
15.63
Market Cap
$717.93M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
1.59%
Operating Margin
3.17%
Gross Margin
20.24%
ROE
3.18%
ROA
1.3%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+20.2%
Earnings Growth
+2290.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+20.15%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+2069.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.61
High debt
Current Ratio
0.29
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.17
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.35
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.3B
Gross Margin
19.6%
Op. Margin
3.0%
Net Margin
4.8%
Total Assets
$1.7B
Liabilities
$1.1B
Equity
$0.6B
Debt/Equity
1.78x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
-99%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-02-24
$0.24
+251.0% surprise
2025-11-04
$0.06
-15.9% surprise
2025-08-05
$0.05
-17.1% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing FWRG against 138 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(11 bullish, 56 neutral, 71 bearish)
P/E Ratio
36.41
This Stock
vs
40.61
Sector Avg
-10.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.18%
This Stock
vs
-1.63%
Sector Avg
-294.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
1.59%
This Stock
vs
-2.11%
Sector Avg
-175.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.61
This Stock
vs
1.56
Sector Avg
+3.4%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
20.2%
This Stock
vs
8.04%
Sector Avg
+151.2%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.29
This Stock
vs
2.25
Sector Avg
-87.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $717.93M | 36.41 | 3.2% | 1.6% | $11.65 | |
|
FOXF
Fox Factory Holding Corp.
|
BEARISH | $709.5M | - | -58.2% | -37.1% | $16.92 | Compare |
|
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $657.02M | 20.84 | 12.4% | -1.5% | $7.71 | Compare |
|
BALY
Bally's Corporation
|
BEARISH | $811.18M | - | -115.6% | -17.4% | $16.5 | Compare |
|
EVGO
EVgo, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $598.94M | - | -23.0% | -10.8% | $1.91 | Compare |
FWRG
First Watch...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$718M
P/E
36.4
ROE
3.2%
Price
$11.65
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | HOPE HENRY MELVILLE III | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 3,878 | $48,553 |
| 2026-03-17 | JONES JOHN DANIEL | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 1,697 | $21,246 |
| 2026-03-17 | SORENSEN LAURA ANNE | Officer | Sale | 1,697 | $21,246 |
| 2026-03-17 | HARTMAN ERIC RICHARD | Officer | Sale | 1,819 | $22,774 |
| 2026-03-17 | TOMASSO CHRISTOPHER ANTHONY | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 25,062 | $313,776 |
| 2026-03-17 | WOLSZCZAK JAY ANTHONY | General Counsel | Sale | 3,161 | $39,576 |
| 2026-03-17 | EISENACHER MATTHEW | Officer | Sale | 2,760 | $34,555 |
| 2026-03-12 | TOMASSO CHRISTOPHER ANTHONY | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 71,768 | - |
| 2026-03-10 | HOPE HENRY MELVILLE III | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 7,358 | $92,637 |
| 2026-03-10 | JONES JOHN DANIEL | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 4,600 | $57,914 |
| 2026-03-10 | SORENSEN LAURA ANNE | Officer | Sale | 4,732 | $59,576 |
| 2026-03-10 | HARTMAN ERIC RICHARD | Officer | Sale | 4,820 | $60,684 |
| 2026-03-10 | TOMASSO CHRISTOPHER ANTHONY | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 33,314 | $419,423 |
| 2026-03-10 | WOLSZCZAK JAY ANTHONY | General Counsel | Sale | 6,998 | $88,105 |
| 2026-03-10 | EISENACHER MATTHEW | Officer | Sale | 6,070 | $76,421 |
HOPE HENRY MELVILLE III
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-17
3,878 shares
·
$48,553
JONES JOHN DANIEL
Chief Operating Officer
2026-03-17
1,697 shares
·
$21,246
SORENSEN LAURA ANNE
Officer
2026-03-17
1,697 shares
·
$21,246
HARTMAN ERIC RICHARD
Officer
2026-03-17
1,819 shares
·
$22,774
TOMASSO CHRISTOPHER ANTHONY
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-17
25,062 shares
·
$313,776
WOLSZCZAK JAY ANTHONY
General Counsel
2026-03-17
3,161 shares
·
$39,576
EISENACHER MATTHEW
Officer
2026-03-17
2,760 shares
·
$34,555
TOMASSO CHRISTOPHER ANTHONY
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-12
71,768 shares
HOPE HENRY MELVILLE III
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-10
7,358 shares
·
$92,637
JONES JOHN DANIEL
Chief Operating Officer
2026-03-10
4,600 shares
·
$57,914
SORENSEN LAURA ANNE
Officer
2026-03-10
4,732 shares
·
$59,576
HARTMAN ERIC RICHARD
Officer
2026-03-10
4,820 shares
·
$60,684
TOMASSO CHRISTOPHER ANTHONY
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-10
33,314 shares
·
$419,423
WOLSZCZAK JAY ANTHONY
General Counsel
2026-03-10
6,998 shares
·
$88,105
EISENACHER MATTHEW
Officer
2026-03-10
6,070 shares
·
$76,421
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
12 analysts
DA Davidson
2026-03-06
Buy
Citigroup
2026-02-25
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2026-02-25
Overweight
Overweight
Guggenheim
2026-02-25
Buy
Buy
Stephens & Co.
2026-02-25
Overweight
Overweight
TD Cowen
2026-02-24
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2026-01-07
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning FWRG from our newsroom.
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