ALSN
NEUTRAL
$109.57
Live
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. · NYSE
Target $114.8
(+4.8%)
$76.01
52W Range
$119.64
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$9.16B
P/E
13.63
ROE
40.4%
Profit margin
22.8%
Debt/Equity
3.96
Dividend yield
0.97%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
78%
Allison Transmission (ALSN) exhibits strong fundamental health with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating robust accounting strength, though the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The company shows exceptional profitability, including a 40.38% ROE and 27.33% operating margin, significantly outperforming sector averages. However, elevated valuation metrics, a bearish technical trend, and recent insider selling offset these strengths. While growth and cash flow fundamentals are strong, the stock trades above its Graham Number of $33.58 but below the growth-based intrinsic value of $237.18, suggesting mixed signals on valuation.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability with ROE of 40.38%, ROA of 11.35%, and operating margin of 27.33%, all well above sector averages.
Strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates high-quality financial health and conservative accounting practices.
Impressive year-over-year revenue growth of 20.40% and earnings growth of 117.00%, demonstrating strong operational momentum.
Low dividend payout ratio of 13.01% provides significant capacity for future increases despite current weak dividend strength score.
Current and quick ratios of 3.81 and 2.81 indicate strong short-term liquidity and financial flexibility.
Key Risks
High debt/equity ratio of 3.96, significantly above sector average of 1.56, raising concerns about long-term financial leverage.
Bearish technical trend (10/100) and 1-year price decline of -7.9% suggest weakening market sentiment despite strong fundamentals.
Recent insider selling activity (2 transactions, $0.33M value) signals lack of confidence from corporate insiders.
Missing Altman Z-Score prevents definitive assessment of bankruptcy risk despite strong Piotroski score.
Most recent Q/Q and YoY EPS growth show sharp declines of -22.2% and -22.9%, indicating potential near-term earnings reversal.
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$175.0
+59.7% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
68
Strong
60
75
80
85
40
AI Verdict
Moderately positive with caution due to valuation and technicals
Key drivers: High Piotroski F-Score, Exceptional profitability metrics, Strong historical earnings growth, Elevated debt levels, Bearish technical trend
Confidence
80%
Value
60/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 11.13 is below historical average and sector average of 55.14
- Growth-based intrinsic value ($237.18) is significantly above current price ($109.57)
Watchpoints
- Price-to-book of 17.58 is extremely high, suggesting overvaluation relative to book equity
- Current price is well above Graham Number ($33.58), indicating speculative premium
Future
75/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth (YoY) of 20.40% is strong and well above sector average of 6.54%
- Historical earnings growth momentum was very strong prior to recent downturn
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q and YoY EPS growth are negative (-22.2%, -22.9%), signaling potential reversal
- PEG Ratio is unavailable, limiting growth-adjusted valuation analysis
Past
80/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long-term price performance strong: +163.1% over 5 years
- Consistent earnings beats over multiple quarters with 14 of last 15 quarters beating estimates
Watchpoints
- Recent quarters show declining EPS growth trend
- Average surprise over last 4 quarters has declined to 3.23% from higher historical levels
Health
85/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates excellent financial health
- Current ratio (3.81) and quick ratio (2.81) reflect strong liquidity
Watchpoints
- Altman Z-Score is missing, creating a critical gap in financial distress assessment
- Debt/equity ratio of 3.96 is very high and above sector average
Dividend
40/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Low payout ratio of 13.01% indicates dividend sustainability and room for growth
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score is low at 25/100
- Dividend yield of 0.97% is below market average
- Limited dividend history data available (5Y avg yield N/A)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$109.57
Analyst Target
$114.8
Upside/Downside
+4.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ALSN and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
Primary
|
+163.1% | +161.4% | -7.9% | +23.3% | +8.7% | -0.6% |
|
GAP
The Gap, Inc.
Peer
|
-9.6% | +193.6% | +24.0% | +7.9% | +1.0% | -7.5% |
|
DDS
Dillard's, Inc.
Peer
|
+708.6% | +134.4% | +88.9% | +2.5% | +5.0% | -1.7% |
|
ALV
Autoliv, Inc.
Peer
|
+62.6% | +63.5% | +28.6% | +8.9% | +5.9% | +0.4% |
|
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc.
Peer
|
+66.2% | +78.1% | +0.1% | +2.5% | -4.9% | -1.9% |
ALS
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+163.1%
3Y
+161.4%
1Y
-7.9%
6M
+23.3%
1M
+8.7%
1W
-0.6%
GAP
The Gap, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-9.6%
3Y
+193.6%
1Y
+24.0%
6M
+7.9%
1M
+1.0%
1W
-7.5%
DDS
Dillard's, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+708.6%
3Y
+134.4%
1Y
+88.9%
6M
+2.5%
1M
+5.0%
1W
-1.7%
ALV
Autoliv, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+62.6%
3Y
+63.5%
1Y
+28.6%
6M
+8.9%
1M
+5.9%
1W
+0.4%
BRO
Dutch Bros Inc.
Peer
5Y
+66.2%
3Y
+78.1%
1Y
+0.1%
6M
+2.5%
1M
-4.9%
1W
-1.9%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
13.63
Forward P/E
11.13
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
17.58
P/S Ratio
2.99
EV/Revenue
3.59
EV/EBITDA
9.92
Market Cap
$9.16B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
22.78%
Operating Margin
27.33%
Gross Margin
48.29%
ROE
40.38%
ROA
11.35%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+20.4%
Earnings Growth
+117.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+96.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
3.96
High debt
Current Ratio
3.81
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.81
Excellent
Cash/Share
$1.25
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-18
$N/A
2025-10-29
$1.75
-5.7% surprise
2025-08-04
$2.25
+1.4% surprise
2025-05-01
$2.25
+14.0% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing ALSN against 386 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(23 bullish, 133 neutral, 230 bearish)
P/E Ratio
13.63
This Stock
vs
33.98
Sector Avg
-59.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
40.38%
This Stock
vs
-43.92%
Sector Avg
-191.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
22.78%
This Stock
vs
-5.4%
Sector Avg
-522.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
3.96
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
+161.7%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
20.4%
This Stock
vs
28.42%
Sector Avg
-28.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.81
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
+55.3%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $9.16B | 13.63 | 40.4% | 22.8% | $109.57 | |
|
GAP
The Gap, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $9.13B | 11.73 | 23.1% | 5.3% | $24.99 | Compare |
|
DDS
Dillard's, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $9.3B | 16.34 | 31.9% | 8.7% | $595.2 | Compare |
|
ALV
Autoliv, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $9.75B | 13.03 | 31.0% | 7.1% | $126.94 | Compare |
|
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $10.04B | 124.43 | 11.7% | 4.0% | $60.97 | Compare |
ALSN
Allison...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$9.2B
P/E
13.6
ROE
40.4%
Price
$109.57
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | COLL JOHN M. | Officer | Sale | 1,791 | $176,933 |
| 2025-11-07 | BARBOUR D SCOTT | Director | Stock Award | 144 | - |
| 2025-11-07 | CHRISTMAN PHILIP J | Director | Stock Award | 144 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | COLL JOHN M. | Officer | Sale | 1,788 | $150,764 |
| 2025-08-14 | BOHLEY G. FREDERICK | Chief Operating Officer | Purchase | 3,000 | $268,500 |
| 2025-08-14 | BOHLEY G. FREDERICK | Chief Operating Officer | Purchase | 3,000 | $265,500 |
| 2025-08-07 | BARBOUR D SCOTT | Director | Stock Award | 135 | - |
| 2025-08-07 | CHRISTMAN PHILIP J | Director | Stock Award | 135 | - |
COLL JOHN M.
Officer
2025-12-31
1,791 shares
·
$176,933
BARBOUR D SCOTT
Director
2025-11-07
144 shares
CHRISTMAN PHILIP J
Director
2025-11-07
144 shares
COLL JOHN M.
Officer
2025-09-30
1,788 shares
·
$150,764
BOHLEY G. FREDERICK
Chief Operating Officer
2025-08-14
3,000 shares
·
$268,500
BOHLEY G. FREDERICK
Chief Operating Officer
2025-08-14
3,000 shares
·
$265,500
BARBOUR D SCOTT
Director
2025-08-07
135 shares
CHRISTMAN PHILIP J
Director
2025-08-07
135 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
10 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-23
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2026-01-23
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2026-01-14
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2026-01-13
Neutral
Neutral
Raymond James
2025-12-22
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Citigroup
2025-12-19
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2025-12-11
Neutral
Neutral
Raymond James
2025-12-08
Outperform
Strong Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-11-14
Equal-Weight
Citigroup
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ALSN from our newsroom.
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