AZO AutoZone, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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AZO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Auto Parts
Current Price
Live
$3700.0
Analyst Target
$4213.17
+13.9%
Upside
52W High
$4388.11
52W Low
$3210.72
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$61.54B
P/E
25.77
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
12.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard shows a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal financial health, and the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. Despite solid profitability metrics like a 16.94% operating margin and 52.15% gross margin, recent earnings declines and negative earnings surprises over the last four quarters raise concerns. Valuation appears stretched relative to peers with a P/E of 25.77, though below sector average, while insider selling and weakening EPS growth temper bullish sentiment. The stock trades significantly above its intrinsic value estimate of $1,004.92, suggesting substantial premium pricing based on growth expectations.
Key Strengths
High gross margin of 52.15% indicates strong pricing power and cost control
Operating margin of 16.94% exceeds sector average, reflecting operational efficiency
Revenue growth of 8.20% YoY outpaces peer and sector averages
Analyst recommendation consensus is 'buy' with a target price of $4,213.17, implying 13.9% upside
Strong historical earnings performance with consistent beats prior to recent quarters
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health, particularly concerning given declining earnings trends
Negative YoY earnings growth of -4.6% and sharp Q/Q EPS decline of -36.3% indicate deteriorating profitability
Price-to-Book ratio of -19.01 suggests negative book value, a serious accounting red flag
Insider selling activity totaling $12.31M in the last 6 months reflects bearish sentiment from management
Recent earnings misses in 3 of last 4 quarters with average surprise of -4.38% erode confidence in forecasts
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$1004.92
-72.8% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
45
50
60
40
30
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risk if earnings stabilize
Key drivers: High profitability margins, Recent earnings deterioration, Rich valuation multiples, Bullish analyst outlook, Bearish insider activity
Confidence
70%
Value
45/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 25.77 is below sector average of 55.19, offering relative value
Watchpoints
- Current price of $3,700 is 268% above intrinsic value of $1,004.92
- Price/Book of -19.01 indicates negative equity, invalidating traditional value metrics
- PEG ratio unavailable due to inconsistent earnings growth
Future
50/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 8.20% YoY remains positive and above sector average
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth declining at -4.6% YoY and -6.0% Q/Q
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth down -36.3%, signaling accelerating profit weakness
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long history of earnings beats from 2020–2023 with multiple double-digit surprises
- 5-year price return of +209.3% demonstrates strong long-term capital appreciation
Watchpoints
- Last 4 quarters have all missed or barely met estimates, breaking prior trend
- 6-month price performance down -3.2%, underperforming recent momentum
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- ROA of 11.96% indicates efficient asset utilization
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Current ratio of 0.86 and quick ratio of 0.10 signal severe liquidity risk
- Price/Book negative implies shareholders' equity is negative — a critical red flag
Dividend
30/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 0.00% leaves room for future capital returns
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout history, reducing income appeal
- Dividend strength score of 0/100 confirms lack of income profile
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$3700.0
Analyst Target
$4213.17
Upside/Downside
+13.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AZO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
Primary
|
+209.3% | +58.0% | +9.7% | -3.2% | +7.1% | +5.0% |
|
RACE
Ferrari N.V.
Peer
|
+69.6% | +48.3% | -19.6% | -31.7% | -5.5% | -8.2% |
|
ROST
Ross Stores, Inc.
Peer
|
+78.5% | +66.0% | +30.5% | +48.8% | +5.3% | +0.5% |
|
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
+156.1% | +96.3% | +8.1% | +5.6% | +1.7% | -1.3% |
|
F
Ford Motor Company
Peer
|
+78.9% | +36.3% | +45.9% | +24.9% | +2.2% | -4.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
25.77
Forward P/E
21.15
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-19.01
P/S Ratio
3.19
EV/Revenue
3.81
EV/EBITDA
17.56
Market Cap
$61.54B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
12.78%
Operating Margin
16.94%
Gross Margin
52.15%
ROE
N/A
ROA
11.96%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
Earnings Growth
-4.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-6.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.86
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.1
Poor
Cash/Share
$18.67
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-03
$N/A
2025-12-09
$31.04
-4.0% surprise
2025-09-23
$48.71
-4.0% surprise
2025-05-27
$35.36
-5.1% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing AZO against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 50 neutral, 39 bearish)
P/E Ratio
25.77
This Stock
vs
42.66
Sector Avg
-39.6%
(Discount)
Profit Margin
12.78%
This Stock
vs
0.8%
Sector Avg
+1493.0%
(Superior)
Revenue Growth
8.2%
This Stock
vs
7.63%
Sector Avg
+7.5%
(Growing)
Current Ratio
0.86
This Stock
vs
1.87
Sector Avg
-54.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $61.54B | 25.77 | -% | 12.8% | $3700.0 | |
|
RACE
Ferrari N.V.
|
NEUTRAL | $61.77B | 33.0 | 45.0% | 22.6% | $345.23 | |
|
ROST
Ross Stores, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $62.56B | 30.06 | 37.4% | 9.5% | $192.36 | |
|
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $62.73B | 39.2 | -% | 34.2% | $269.67 | |
|
F
Ford Motor Company
|
NEUTRAL | $54.19B | 11.62 | 10.3% | 2.5% | $13.6 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | SMITH RICHARD CRAIG | Officer | Sale | 3,190 | $11,165,000 |
| 2026-01-16 | SMITH RICHARD CRAIG | Officer | Option Exercise | 3,190 | $2,376,072 |
| 2026-01-02 | GRAVES EARL G JR | Director | Sale | 250 | $823,750 |
| 2026-01-02 | MRKONIC GEORGE R JR | Director | Sale | 96 | $323,538 |
| 2025-12-31 | DANIELE PHILIP B. III | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 15 | $44,090 |
| 2025-12-31 | JACKSON JAMERE | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2 | $6,783 |
| 2025-12-31 | KING GALE V. | Director | Stock Award | 82 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | SOLTAU JILL A. | Director | Stock Award | 82 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | JAYCOX KENNETH E | Officer | Stock Award | 3 | $6,783 |
| 2025-12-31 | BORNINKHOF MICHELLE K | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 4 | $10,174 |
| 2025-12-31 | LERICHE DENNIS W | Officer | Stock Award | 4 | $10,174 |
| 2025-12-31 | MCDONOUGH CLAIRE | Director | Stock Award | 86 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | MURPHY JOHN SCOTT | Officer | Stock Award | 6 | $16,958 |
| 2025-12-31 | HANNASCH BRIAN | Director | Stock Award | 92 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | BEDSOLE JENNA M | Officer | Stock Award | 5 | $13,566 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
23 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-15
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2026-01-08
Overweight
Overweight
Mizuho
2026-01-05
Outperform
Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-12-18
Overweight
Overweight
Wolfe Research
2025-12-16
Outperform
Peer Perform
Citigroup
2025-12-11
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-12-10
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2025-12-10
Buy
Buy
Roth Capital
2025-12-10
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-12-10
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AZO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.