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CARR

NEUTRAL
$54.1 Live
Carrier Global Corporation · NYSE
Target $72.69 (+34.4%)
$53.96 52W Range $81.09

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$46.46B
P/E
33.81
ROE
10.0%
Profit margin
18.1%
Debt/Equity
0.83
Dividend yield
1.66%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
65%
Carrier Global trades at a significant premium to peers on a trailing P/E basis (33.8x vs sector avg 31.4x), despite contracting revenue (-6.8% YoY) and declining earnings (-13% YoY), raising concerns about valuation sustainability. However, the company maintains strong profitability with an 18.05% net margin and a robust analyst target price of $72.69, implying 34% upside, which reflects confidence in a turnaround. While insider selling of $300M over the past six months signals caution at current levels, the firm’s disciplined capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.83) and solid earnings surprise history (20 of last 24 quarters positive) provide counterbalancing strengths. Price performance has been weak over the past year (-26.9%), underperforming most peers, suggesting near-term headwinds but potential mean reversion if macro or operational improvements materialize.

Key Strengths

High profitability with 18.05% net margin, well above sector average of 12.31%
Strong earnings execution: 20 of last 24 quarters beat estimates, with 10.3% average surprise over last 4
Attractive forward P/E of 17.8x, below current P/E and in line with earnings recovery expectations
Debt/Equity of 0.83 is below sector average of 1.60, indicating conservative leverage
Dividend yield of 1.66% with sustainable 54% payout ratio, providing income appeal

Key Risks

Revenue declining YoY (-6.8%) amid weak end-market demand, contrasting with sector average growth of +6.97%
Earnings under pressure: -13% YoY and -27.2% Q/Q EPS growth indicate deteriorating profitability
High trailing P/E of 33.8x makes valuation vulnerable if growth does not rebound
Insider sold $300M in stock recently, signaling lack of confidence at current price levels
Weak liquidity profile with quick ratio of 0.66, below 1.0 threshold and peer norms
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$72.69
+34.4% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
62
Strong
Value
50
Future
55
Past
70
Health
60
Dividend
75
AI Verdict
CARR presents a mixed profile: attractive forward valuation and strong earnings delivery discipline are offset by declining fundamentals, weak price momentum, and concerning insider activity; trading at a premium despite underperformance suggests limited margin of safety relative to peers like EMR and ITW.
Key drivers: Forward P/E compression from 33.8x to 17.8x priced on recovery, Persistent revenue and earnings declines despite cost controls, Analyst optimism anchored on mean-reversion and cyclical rebound
Confidence
65%
Value
50/100

CARR trades at a higher trailing P/E than peers like PCAR (18.7x), NSC (21.6x), and EMR (31.7x), despite weaker growth, suggesting premium pricing not fully justified by fundamentals.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 17.8x is reasonable relative to sector median and growth peers
  • Price/Sales of 2.11 is in line with industrial sector average
Watchpoints
  • Trailing P/E of 33.8x is elevated given negative earnings growth
  • Lack of EV/EBITDA and PEG metrics limits full valuation context
Future
55/100

Despite a 1-year return of -26.9% and underperformance vs peers like NSC (+9.6%) and EMR (+1.0%), the market may be pricing a bottoming in HVAC and building tech demand, though current trends remain negative.

Positives
  • Analyst target implies 34% upside, pricing in cyclical recovery in building products
  • Forward P/E of 17.8x suggests market expects earnings rebound
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth of -6.8% YoY and negative EPS momentum (-13% YoY) challenge recovery thesis
  • No Q/Q growth data available, but -4.3% Q/Q earnings growth indicates near-term weakness
Past
70/100

CARR has delivered strong quarterly earnings surprises over the past six years, including multiple double-digit beats, but long-term share performance (43% over 5Y) has reversed sharply in the last year, suggesting fundamentals are now lagging.

Positives
  • Consistent earnings beat record: 20 of last 24 quarters above estimates
  • Profit margins stable near 18%, demonstrating pricing power and cost discipline
Watchpoints
  • ROE of 9.98% lags far behind sector average of 35.19%, indicating inefficient capital use
  • 1-year price return of -26.9% reflects deteriorating sentiment despite past execution
Health
60/100

While CARR’s leverage is conservative relative to peers like ITW (2.79) and the sector (1.60), its weak liquidity ratios suggest limited flexibility in a stressed environment, especially with declining cash flow trends.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity of 0.83 is below sector average of 1.60, reducing solvency risk
  • Operating margin of 9.55% supports debt servicing capacity
Watchpoints
  • Quick ratio of 0.66 indicates limited short-term liquidity buffer
  • Current ratio of 1.14 is tight, increasing vulnerability to downturns
Dividend
75/100

The dividend appears well-covered and provides a modest income floor, though lack of visibility into growth history limits its appeal as a core long-term holding driver.

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 1.66% is modest but above S&P 500 median
  • 54% payout ratio is sustainable given current earnings stability
Watchpoints
  • No data on dividend growth history or consistency
  • Dividend policy not clearly communicated in absence of 5Y yield average

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$54.1
Analyst Target
$72.69
Upside/Downside
+34.4%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CARR and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
CAR
Carrier Global Corporation
Primary
5Y
+43.0%
3Y
+27.2%
1Y
-26.9%
6M
-28.0%
1M
-5.1%
1W
-5.9%
FAS
Fastenal Company
Peer
5Y
+89.3%
3Y
+68.9%
1Y
+0.6%
6M
-1.6%
1M
-3.7%
1W
-1.0%
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+136.1%
3Y
+63.6%
1Y
-20.5%
6M
-15.5%
1M
-3.1%
1W
-2.8%
AXO
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+251.3%
3Y
+224.5%
1Y
-0.0%
6M
-16.6%
1M
+3.7%
1W
-3.6%
RKL
Rocket Lab Corporation
Peer
5Y
+689.6%
3Y
+1978.4%
1Y
+329.6%
6M
+28.0%
1M
+22.1%
1W
+24.6%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
33.81
Forward P/E
17.8
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.15
P/S Ratio
2.11
EV/Revenue
2.58
EV/EBITDA
15.56
Market Cap
$46.46B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 18.05%
Operating Margin 9.55%
Gross Margin 27.36%
ROE 9.98%
ROA 3.81%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -6.8%
Earnings Growth +0.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth -4.3%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.83
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.14
Good
Quick Ratio
0.66
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.69

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-10
$N/A
2025-10-28
$0.67
+17.7% surprise
2025-07-29
$0.92
+1.9% surprise
2025-05-01
$0.65
+11.3% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing CARR against 469 companies in the Industrials sector (39 bullish, 174 neutral, 256 bearish)
P/E Ratio
33.81
This Stock
vs
98.24
Sector Avg
-65.6% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.98%
This Stock
vs
-19.38%
Sector Avg
-151.5% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
18.05%
This Stock
vs
6.65%
Sector Avg
+171.3% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.83
This Stock
vs
2.63
Sector Avg
-68.4% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-6.8%
This Stock
vs
71.29%
Sector Avg
-109.5% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.14
This Stock
vs
3.09
Sector Avg
-63.1% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

PANDYA GAURANG
Officer
Stock Award
2025-08-08
66 shares
PANDYA GAURANG
President
Stock Award
2025-08-01
19,190 shares
DRYDEN EDWARD C
Officer
Stock Award
2025-07-01
6,791 shares
VIESSMANN MAXIMILIAN
Director
Sell
2025-06-05
4,267,425 shares · $299,999,978
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
20 analysts
JP Morgan
2025-10-31
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Citigroup
2025-10-29
Maintains
Buy Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-10-29
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Mizuho
2025-10-17
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-10-15
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-14
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Oppenheimer
2025-10-14
down
Outperform Perform
Wells Fargo
2025-10-06
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Oppenheimer
2025-09-17
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Goldman Sachs
2025-09-12
Maintains
Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning CARR from our newsroom.

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