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GGG

BEARISH
$80.54 Live
Graco Inc. · NYSE
Target $92.88 (+15.3%)
$78.87 52W Range $95.69

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$13.37B
P/E
26.32
ROE
19.8%
Profit margin
23.0%
Debt/Equity
0.02
Dividend yield
1.47%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
Graco Inc. (GGG) exhibits a stable financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and an exceptionally clean balance sheet (Debt/Equity 0.02). However, the stock is severely overvalued, trading at $80.54 despite a Graham Number of $33.74 and an Intrinsic Value of $21.42. Growth has stalled with negative YoY earnings growth (-2.80%) and a high PEG ratio of 2.52, indicating the price is not supported by current fundamentals. Bearish insider activity and a 0/100 technical trend further signal a lack of confidence in near-term upside.

Key Strengths

Exceptional balance sheet with near-zero debt (Debt/Equity 0.02)
Strong profitability margins (Gross Margin 52.31%, Operating Margin 25.51%)
High liquidity with a Current Ratio of 3.56
Robust Return on Equity (ROE) of 19.78%
Sustainable dividend payout ratio of 36.60%

Key Risks

Severe valuation gap between current price and deterministic fair value models
Negative earnings growth trend (YoY -2.80%, Q/Q -4.50%)
Consistent earnings misses (only 1 of last 4 quarters beat estimates)
Bearish insider sentiment with $3.77M in sales and zero buys
Stagnant revenue growth (2.20% YoY) failing to justify a 26.32 P/E
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$35.5
-55.9% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
52
Moderate
Value
20
Future
30
Past
60
Health
95
Dividend
55
AI Verdict
Overvalued Quality
Key drivers: Extreme valuation premium, Negative earnings growth, Pristine balance sheet
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100

Stock trades at a massive premium to both Graham and Intrinsic value formulas.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • Price $80.54 vs Graham $33.74
  • PEG Ratio 2.52
  • P/B Ratio 4.87
Future
30/100

Growth metrics are deteriorating or stagnant.

Positives
  • Slight revenue growth (2.20%)
Watchpoints
  • Negative YoY earnings growth
  • Negative Q/Q earnings growth
  • Recent earnings surprise average -3.79%
Past
60/100

Historically a high-performer, but momentum is fading.

Positives
  • Consistent historical profitability
  • Strong ROE/ROA
Watchpoints
  • Recent trend of missing earnings estimates
Health
95/100

Financial solvency is nearly perfect.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity 0.02
  • Current Ratio 3.56
  • Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (Stable)
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Dividend
55/100

Dividends are safe but not a primary driver for total return.

Positives
  • Low payout ratio (36.60%)
Watchpoints
  • Low yield (1.47%)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$80.54
Analyst Target
$92.88
Upside/Downside
+15.3%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for GGG and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-27
GGG
Graco Inc.
Primary
5Y
+11.3%
3Y
+5.5%
1Y
+0.4%
6M
-1.1%
1M
-3.5%
1W
-7.6%
BLD
Builders FirstSource, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+191.8%
3Y
+69.7%
1Y
-27.2%
6M
-10.3%
1M
+17.6%
1W
-3.5%
KTO
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+149.5%
3Y
+445.7%
1Y
+121.8%
6M
-25.7%
1M
-20.9%
1W
+4.5%
BLD
TopBuild Corp.
Peer
5Y
+128.2%
3Y
+153.3%
1Y
+37.6%
6M
+27.2%
1M
+14.1%
1W
-1.1%
GNR
Generac Holdings Inc.
Peer
5Y
-30.3%
3Y
+115.5%
1Y
+94.2%
6M
+15.7%
1M
+13.3%
1W
+1.4%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
26.32
Forward P/E
23.83
PEG Ratio
2.52
P/B Ratio
4.87
P/S Ratio
5.94
EV/Revenue
5.65
EV/EBITDA
17.63
Market Cap
$13.37B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 22.96%
Operating Margin 25.51%
Gross Margin 52.31%
ROE 19.78%
ROA 12.01%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +2.2%
Earnings Growth -2.8%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +2.25%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -4.5%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.02
Low debt
Current Ratio
3.56
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.5
Excellent
Cash/Share
$4.29

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue
$0.5B
Gross Margin
52.0%
Op. Margin
25.5%
Net Margin
21.9%
Total Assets
$3.3B
Liabilities
$0.6B
Equity
$2.7B
Debt/Equity
0.22x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
90%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-07-22
$N/A
2026-04-22
$0.66
-11.1% surprise
2026-01-26
$0.77
+0.8% surprise
2025-10-22
$0.73
-1.1% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing GGG against 465 companies in the Industrials sector (39 bullish, 171 neutral, 255 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.32
This Stock
vs
98.74
Sector Avg
-73.3% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
19.78%
This Stock
vs
-19.66%
Sector Avg
-200.6% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
22.96%
This Stock
vs
6.63%
Sector Avg
+246.2% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.02
This Stock
vs
2.65
Sector Avg
-99.3% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.2%
This Stock
vs
71.89%
Sector Avg
-96.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
3.56
This Stock
vs
3.1
Sector Avg
+14.8% (Better)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

LOWE DAVID M
Chief Financial Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-09
3,000 shares · $71,540
WORDELL ANGELA F
Chief Operating Officer
Sell
2026-02-06
2,832 shares · $263,993
WORDELL ANGELA F
Chief Operating Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-06
2,832 shares · $85,942
WHITE TIMOTHY R
Officer
Sell
2026-02-04
1,469 shares · $133,233
WHITE TIMOTHY R
Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-04
1,469 shares · $35,036
GILLIGAN JOHN KEVIN
Director
Sell
2026-02-03
12,870 shares · $1,146,300
GILLIGAN JOHN KEVIN
Director
Option Exercise
2026-02-03
12,870 shares · $464,436
SCHOENROCK KATHRYN L.
Chief Technology Officer
Sell
2026-02-02
2,223 shares · $195,760
SCHOENROCK KATHRYN L.
Chief Technology Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-02
3,336 shares · $79,553
O'SHEA PETER J.
Officer
Sell
2026-02-02
8,820 shares · $777,007
O'SHEA PETER J.
Officer
Option Exercise
2026-02-02
8,820 shares · $210,328
MERENGO CLAUDIO
Officer
Sell
2026-01-30
14,410 shares · $1,254,085
MERENGO CLAUDIO
Officer
Option Exercise
2026-01-30
14,410 shares · $437,296
LOWE DAVID M
Chief Financial Officer
Option Exercise
2026-01-29
60,510 shares · $1,442,964
MORFITT MARTHA A M
Director
Option Exercise
2026-01-29
18,000 shares · $480,240
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-04-27

GGG filed an 8-K on April 27, 2026, likely to report its first-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2026-04-22

GGG submitted its quarterly 10-Q filing on April 22, 2026. While specific financial highlights were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes a dedicated section for risk factors under Item 1A.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-03-11

GGG filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on March 11, 2026, providing shareholders with information regarding matters to be voted on at the company's upcoming meeting.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-02
10-K
10-K
2026-02-17

Graco Inc. (GGG) filed its annual 10-K on February 17, 2026, which includes standard disclosures regarding its financial condition, market risks, and operational risk factors. The provided excerpts consist of the filing's table of contents, with specific financial highlights and detailed risk assessments contained within the full report.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-13

GGG filed an 8-K on February 13, 2026, likely to announce its quarterly or annual financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-26
8-K
8-K
2025-10-30
10-Q
10-Q
2025-10-22

GGG submitted its quarterly 10-Q filing on October 22, 2025. While specific financial highlights were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes a dedicated section for Risk Factors under Item 1A.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-07-23
8-K
8-K
2025-04-28
10-Q
10-Q
2025-04-23
DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-03-12
10-K
10-K
2025-02-18
8-K
8-K
2025-01-27
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
8 analysts
DA Davidson
2026-04-27
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Baird
2026-04-24
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
DA Davidson
2026-02-02
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Jefferies
2026-01-28
Maintains
Buy Buy
RBC Capital
2026-01-28
Maintains
Outperform Outperform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning GGG from our newsroom.

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