GPK
BEARISH
$9.6
Live
Graphic Packaging Holding Company · NYSE
Target $11.29
(+17.6%)
$8.79
52W Range
$25.81
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$2.84B
P/E
6.49
ROE
14.0%
Profit margin
5.2%
Debt/Equity
1.76
Dividend yield
4.58%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
GPK presents as a classic value trap, characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 but severe fundamental deterioration. While the stock trades significantly below its Graham Number ($19.4) and Intrinsic Value ($10.36), these metrics are lagging indicators that fail to account for a catastrophic -48% collapse in earnings growth. The combination of stagnant revenue (0.40%) and a consistent streak of earnings misses (0/4 in the last year) suggests the current low valuation is a reflection of declining business quality rather than a market mispricing.
Key Strengths
Deeply undervalued on trailing metrics (P/E 6.49, P/B 0.85)
Trading below Graham Number ($19.4) and Intrinsic Value ($10.36)
Sustainable dividend payout ratio (29.73%)
Positive Return on Equity (13.98%)
Low Price-to-Sales ratio (0.33)
Key Risks
Severe earnings contraction (-48% YoY)
Stagnant revenue growth (0.40% YoY)
Poor short-term liquidity (Quick Ratio 0.46)
Strong bearish technical trend (-61% 1Y return)
Consistent failure to meet analyst earnings estimates (0/4 beats)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$10.1
+5.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
48
Moderate
82
15
25
45
75
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Earnings collapse, Technical breakdown, Stagnant top-line growth
Confidence
90%
Value
82/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 6.49 is well below sector average
- P/B of 0.85 indicates trading below book value
Watchpoints
- High PEG ratio (3.33) indicates price is high relative to growth
Future
15/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth -48%
- Revenue growth nearly flat at 0.40%
Past
25/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical track record of beats prior to 2024
Watchpoints
- 1Y price change of -61%
- Recent 4-quarter streak of earnings misses
Health
45/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current Ratio 1.30 is acceptable
Watchpoints
- Quick Ratio 0.46 indicates liquidity risk
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9 is only mediocre
Dividend
75/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Attractive 4.58% yield
- Low payout ratio suggests safety
Watchpoints
- Dividend yield is offset by massive capital depreciation
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$9.6
Analyst Target
$11.29
Upside/Downside
+17.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for GPK and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-27
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
Primary
|
-43.1% | -58.7% | -61.0% | -43.7% | +4.0% | -3.4% |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
|
-67.0% | -66.0% | +1.0% | -19.4% | +14.4% | +8.3% |
|
CALY
Callaway Golf Company
Peer
|
-47.6% | -31.1% | +123.8% | +52.0% | +12.2% | -0.3% |
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Peer
|
+4.5% | +75.2% | +28.1% | +4.3% | -11.4% | +1.9% |
|
SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
Peer
|
+13.9% | +20.3% | +105.3% | +15.0% | +22.1% | +4.8% |
GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
Primary
5Y
-43.1%
3Y
-58.7%
1Y
-61.0%
6M
-43.7%
1M
+4.0%
1W
-3.4%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-67.0%
3Y
-66.0%
1Y
+1.0%
6M
-19.4%
1M
+14.4%
1W
+8.3%
CAL
Callaway Golf Company
Peer
5Y
-47.6%
3Y
-31.1%
1Y
+123.8%
6M
+52.0%
1M
+12.2%
1W
-0.3%
CAK
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Peer
5Y
+4.5%
3Y
+75.2%
1Y
+28.1%
6M
+4.3%
1M
-11.4%
1W
+1.9%
SHO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
Peer
5Y
+13.9%
3Y
+20.3%
1Y
+105.3%
6M
+15.0%
1M
+22.1%
1W
+4.8%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
6.49
Forward P/E
8.15
PEG Ratio
3.33
P/B Ratio
0.85
P/S Ratio
0.33
EV/Revenue
0.98
EV/EBITDA
6.12
Market Cap
$2.84B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
5.15%
Operating Margin
6.8%
Gross Margin
18.72%
ROE
13.98%
ROA
4.66%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+0.4%
Earnings Growth
-48.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+0.38%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-48.6%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.76
High debt
Current Ratio
1.3
Good
Quick Ratio
0.46
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.88
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$2.1B
Gross Margin
14.4%
Op. Margin
7.1%
Net Margin
3.4%
Total Assets
$11.8B
Liabilities
$8.4B
Equity
$3.3B
Debt/Equity
2.53x
Operating CF
$0.5B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.4B
FCF Yield
78%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-02-03
$0.29
-16.9% surprise
2025-11-04
$0.48
-7.1% surprise
2025-07-29
$0.34
-7.6% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing GPK against 386 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(23 bullish, 133 neutral, 230 bearish)
P/E Ratio
6.49
This Stock
vs
33.98
Sector Avg
-80.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
13.98%
This Stock
vs
-43.92%
Sector Avg
-131.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
5.15%
This Stock
vs
-5.4%
Sector Avg
-195.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.76
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
+16.2%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
0.4%
This Stock
vs
28.42%
Sector Avg
-98.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.3
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
-46.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
|
BEARISH | $2.84B | 6.49 | 14.0% | 5.2% | $9.6 | |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.81B | - | -23.9% | -4.4% | $46.77 | Compare |
|
CALY
Callaway Golf Company
|
BEARISH | $2.79B | 72.9 | 1.7% | -19.9% | $15.31 | Compare |
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
BEARISH | $2.78B | 18.23 | 33.7% | 4.0% | $55.78 | Compare |
|
SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
|
BEARISH | $2.91B | 63.17 | 5.5% | 1.8% | $39.8 | Compare |
GPK
Graphic...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$2.8B
P/E
6.5
ROE
14.0%
Price
$9.6
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | FALLAN SCOTT | Officer | Stock Award | 1,258 | - |
| 2026-03-04 | VENTURELLI LARRY M | Director | Purchase | 17,531 | $199,194 |
| 2026-03-04 | RIETBROEK ROBBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 44,278 | $501,099 |
| 2026-02-26 | LISCHER CHARLES D | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,214 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | YOST JOSEPH P. | Officer | Stock Award | 5,421 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES | Officer | Stock Award | 4,057 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | SPENCE ELIZABETH | Officer | Stock Award | 3,627 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | FALLAN SCOTT | Officer | Stock Award | 603 | - |
| 2026-02-26 | NARVEKAR NIKHIL | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 402 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | LISCHER CHARLES D | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 4,376 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | LISCHER CHARLES D | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 9,423 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | YOST JOSEPH P. | Officer | Stock Award | 11,401 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | YOST JOSEPH P. | Officer | Stock Award | 23,969 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | TASHMA LAUREN S. | Former | Stock Award | 9,811 | - |
| 2026-02-13 | TASHMA LAUREN S. | Former | Stock Award | 21,317 | - |
FALLAN SCOTT
Officer
2026-04-01
1,258 shares
VENTURELLI LARRY M
Director
2026-03-04
17,531 shares
·
$199,194
RIETBROEK ROBBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-04
44,278 shares
·
$501,099
LISCHER CHARLES D
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-26
2,214 shares
YOST JOSEPH P.
Officer
2026-02-26
5,421 shares
FARRELL MICHAEL JAMES
Officer
2026-02-26
4,057 shares
SPENCE ELIZABETH
Officer
2026-02-26
3,627 shares
FALLAN SCOTT
Officer
2026-02-26
603 shares
NARVEKAR NIKHIL
Chief Technology Officer
2026-02-26
402 shares
LISCHER CHARLES D
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-13
4,376 shares
LISCHER CHARLES D
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-13
9,423 shares
YOST JOSEPH P.
Officer
2026-02-13
11,401 shares
YOST JOSEPH P.
Officer
2026-02-13
23,969 shares
TASHMA LAUREN S.
Former
2026-02-13
9,811 shares
TASHMA LAUREN S.
Former
2026-02-13
21,317 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
9 analysts
Truist Securities
2026-04-15
Hold
Hold
Citigroup
2026-04-14
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2026-04-14
Underweight
Underweight
UBS
2026-04-10
Neutral
Neutral
Deutsche Bank
2026-04-01
Hold
Hold
RBC Capital
2026-03-20
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Wells Fargo
2026-03-20
Underweight
Underweight
Citigroup
2026-02-05
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2026-02-04
Underweight
Underweight
UBS
2026-01-12
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning GPK from our newsroom.
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