SHOO
BEARISH
$39.8
Live
Steven Madden, Ltd. · NASDAQ
Target $43.56
(+9.4%)
$19.06
52W Range
$46.88
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 19, 2026
Market cap
$2.91B
P/E
63.17
ROE
5.5%
Profit margin
1.8%
Debt/Equity
0.54
Dividend yield
2.11%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
SHOO exhibits a concerning divergence between aggressive revenue growth and collapsing profitability, evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable/Weak) and a massive valuation gap. The stock is trading at $39.80, significantly exceeding both its Graham Number ($13.0) and Intrinsic Value ($4.41). While top-line growth is strong at 29.4%, the YoY earnings decline of 31.7% and an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 133.33% signal fundamental instability. Combined with bearish insider sentiment and a high trailing P/E of 63.17, the current price appears speculative and unsupported by deterministic health metrics.
Key Strengths
Strong YoY revenue growth of 29.40%
Healthy gross margins at 42.63%
Solid liquidity with a current ratio of 1.90
Manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54
Strong 1-year price performance (+105.3%)
Key Risks
Severe earnings contraction (-31.7% YoY)
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (133.33%)
Extreme overvaluation relative to Graham and Intrinsic values
Bearish insider activity with 8 sell transactions and 0 buys
Thin net profit margins (1.76%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$13.71
-65.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
36
Weak
15
45
60
50
10
AI Verdict
Overvalued Growth Trap
Key drivers: Earnings collapse, Valuation disconnect, Dividend instability
Confidence
90%
Value
15/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Reasonable Price/Sales (1.15)
Watchpoints
- P/E of 63.17 is excessive
- Price is ~3x the Graham Number
- Price is ~9x the Intrinsic Value
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Strong revenue growth (29.4%)
- Low forward P/E (15.17) suggests expected recovery
Watchpoints
- Negative earnings growth trend
- Poor recent earnings beat rate (1/4)
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Exceptional 1-year price return
- Historical track record of EPS surprises
Watchpoints
- Recent shift toward earnings misses
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio 1.90
- Low Debt/Equity 0.54
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9 indicates mediocre financial health
Dividend
10/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Positive yield (2.11%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 133.33% is fundamentally unsustainable
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$39.8
Analyst Target
$43.56
Upside/Downside
+9.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for SHOO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-17
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
Primary
|
+13.9% | +20.3% | +105.3% | +15.0% | +22.1% | +4.8% |
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Peer
|
-34.3% | +45.2% | +66.1% | -2.9% | -26.3% | -4.8% |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
|
-67.0% | -66.0% | +1.0% | -19.4% | +14.4% | +8.3% |
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Peer
|
+4.5% | +75.2% | +28.1% | +4.3% | -11.4% | +1.9% |
|
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
Peer
|
-96.0% | -88.2% | -60.6% | -59.9% | -5.0% | -8.0% |
SHO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
Primary
5Y
+13.9%
3Y
+20.3%
1Y
+105.3%
6M
+15.0%
1M
+22.1%
1W
+4.8%
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-34.3%
3Y
+45.2%
1Y
+66.1%
6M
-2.9%
1M
-26.3%
1W
-4.8%
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-67.0%
3Y
-66.0%
1Y
+1.0%
6M
-19.4%
1M
+14.4%
1W
+8.3%
CAK
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Peer
5Y
+4.5%
3Y
+75.2%
1Y
+28.1%
6M
+4.3%
1M
-11.4%
1W
+1.9%
LCI
Lucid Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-96.0%
3Y
-88.2%
1Y
-60.6%
6M
-59.9%
1M
-5.0%
1W
-8.0%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
63.17
Forward P/E
15.17
PEG Ratio
2.17
P/B Ratio
3.34
P/S Ratio
1.15
EV/Revenue
1.31
EV/EBITDA
16.1
Market Cap
$2.91B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
1.76%
Operating Margin
8.1%
Gross Margin
42.63%
ROE
5.51%
ROA
6.61%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+29.4%
Earnings Growth
-31.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+29.43%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-33.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.54
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.9
Good
Quick Ratio
1.02
Good
Cash/Share
$1.54
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.8B
Gross Margin
42.4%
Op. Margin
5.2%
Net Margin
3.1%
Total Assets
$1.9B
Liabilities
$1.0B
Equity
$0.9B
Debt/Equity
1.17x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
89%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-25
$0.32
+33.3% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.43
-3.5% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.2
-17.0% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing SHOO against 268 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(14 bullish, 92 neutral, 162 bearish)
P/E Ratio
63.17
This Stock
vs
34.48
Sector Avg
+83.2%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
5.51%
This Stock
vs
-37.91%
Sector Avg
-114.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
1.76%
This Stock
vs
-5.22%
Sector Avg
-133.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.54
This Stock
vs
1.38
Sector Avg
-61.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
29.4%
This Stock
vs
15.01%
Sector Avg
+95.9%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.9
This Stock
vs
2.39
Sector Avg
-20.4%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
|
BEARISH | $2.91B | 63.17 | 5.5% | 1.8% | $39.8 | |
|
AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.98B | 16.13 | 10.7% | 3.5% | $17.58 | Compare |
|
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.81B | - | -23.9% | -4.4% | $46.77 | Compare |
|
CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
BEARISH | $2.78B | 18.23 | 33.7% | 4.0% | $55.78 | Compare |
|
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $3.12B | - | -66.0% | -199.3% | $9.53 | Compare |
SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$2.9B
P/E
63.2
ROE
5.5%
Price
$39.8
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | KEITH LISA | General Counsel | Stock Award | 1,594 | - |
| 2026-03-13 | MAZOUZI ZINE | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 7,969 | - |
| 2026-03-13 | ROSENFELD EDWARD R | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 108,384 | - |
| 2026-03-13 | VARELA AMELIA NEWTON | President | Stock Award | 7,969 | - |
| 2026-03-12 | REED ARIAN SIMONE | Director | Sale | 3,600 | $120,374 |
| 2026-01-07 | VARELA AMELIA NEWTON | President | Stock Award | 24,983 | - |
| 2025-12-11 | REED ARIAN SIMONE | Director | Sale | 2,712 | $121,498 |
| 2025-12-01 | VARELA AMELIA NEWTON | President | Sale | 15,000 | $638,838 |
| 2025-11-25 | KEITH LISA | General Counsel | Sale | 2,500 | $105,133 |
| 2025-11-25 | KEITH LISA | General Counsel | Sale | 2,400 | $100,928 |
| 2025-11-25 | MAZOUZI ZINE | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 12,473 | $526,477 |
| 2025-11-25 | MIGLIORINI PETER | Director | Sale | 3,000 | $126,426 |
| 2025-11-12 | DAVIS PETER ALLAN | Director | Sale | 660 | $25,941 |
KEITH LISA
General Counsel
2026-03-13
1,594 shares
MAZOUZI ZINE
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-13
7,969 shares
ROSENFELD EDWARD R
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-13
108,384 shares
VARELA AMELIA NEWTON
President
2026-03-13
7,969 shares
REED ARIAN SIMONE
Director
2026-03-12
3,600 shares
·
$120,374
VARELA AMELIA NEWTON
President
2026-01-07
24,983 shares
REED ARIAN SIMONE
Director
2025-12-11
2,712 shares
·
$121,498
VARELA AMELIA NEWTON
President
2025-12-01
15,000 shares
·
$638,838
KEITH LISA
General Counsel
2025-11-25
2,500 shares
·
$105,133
KEITH LISA
General Counsel
2025-11-25
2,400 shares
·
$100,928
MAZOUZI ZINE
Chief Financial Officer
2025-11-25
12,473 shares
·
$526,477
MIGLIORINI PETER
Director
2025-11-25
3,000 shares
·
$126,426
DAVIS PETER ALLAN
Director
2025-11-12
660 shares
·
$25,941
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
DEF 14A
10-K
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K/A
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
9 analysts
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-02-26
Outperform
Outperform
BTIG
2026-02-26
Buy
Buy
Needham
2026-02-25
Buy
Buy
UBS
2026-02-23
Neutral
Neutral
BTIG
2026-02-19
Buy
Buy
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-02-19
Outperform
Outperform
BTIG
2026-02-05
Buy
Buy
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-02-05
Outperform
Outperform
Needham
2026-02-04
Buy
Buy
Needham
2026-01-08
Hold
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning SHOO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.